12 Nov 5 - The Great Conference Migration (PRESEASON)

Volume XVII, No. 1 - 12 Nov 5 : PRESEASON - [] Top 25 Ballot

The Great Conference Migration

I'm working from a backup system at the moment after my main system crashed last week. My subscriber list may not be perfectly accurate. If you didn't get this first HLS column emailed to you directly as you were supposed to, please bear with me while I recover and regroup. -- Ron

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Last year's head storyline was about three dominant teams from the start -- Kentucky, Ohio State and North Carolina. The Wildcats dominated the SEC (undefeated) and, except for a preseason buzzer-beater and a conference tourney upset, they nearly went the entire season without a loss. The Buckeyes shared the BIG 10 title three ways and did make the Final Four. The Tar Heels won the ACC title, but a key injury stymied their own shot at the Final Four. This year doesn't begin with any can't-miss juggernaut squads.

We're in Year Two of the multi-year Great Conference Migration. The driving forces are teams' switching leagues in pursuit of a better shot at automatic qualification for BCS football bowls and Texas' push to become a national brand (akin to Notre Dame). Last year, the PAC-10[12] and BIG 10 expanded to 12 teams while the BIG 12 reduced to 10. This year, the BIG 12 lost Missouri and Texas A&M to the SEC (and replaced them with West Virginia[BIG EAST] and TCU[MOUNTAIN WEST]). The MOUNTAIN WEST added Fresno State[WAC] and Nevada[WAC]; the WAC added 5 schools (including Denver[SUN BELT] and 3 Texas schools from the SOUTHLAND) prompting Hawaii to bolt for the all-California BIG WEST; the SOUTHLAND added Oral Roberts[SUMMIT] but is now down to a single division. Belmont[ATLANTIC SUN] is now in the OHIO VALLEY (up to 12 teams/two divisions). The BIG SOUTH is now two divisions as well.

    
The big basketball move this year involves the two flagship Mid-Major programs, Butler and VCU -- they've both made it to the Final Four from their HORIZON and COLONIAL home leagues, but they've both jumped ship to the ATLANTIC 10 (now up to 16 teams!) It won't likely be quite the "Mega-A-10" this season -- don't expect 8 teams to make the NCAAs, (but it already had a better postseason than the PAC-12 last year [as did the MOUNTAIN WEST and the WEST COAST]); and with the BIG EAST downgrading even more next year, the A-10's "Mid-Major" classification may need to be officially adjusted. (Can't see how 16 teams can be happy over the long-term in a single-division league, though, if they don't start to get BCS-level respect come bid time [especially if there's no football reason to be there].)

    
(Check back in March and assess whether the switch was a good decision for Butler and VCU, or whether they'd have gotten a better shot at an NCAA bid back in their old leagues.)

It's generally a down year (at least at the start) for the college hoops landscape. We don't have any killer squads ready to dominate from Day One this season. Only one of last year's Final Four teams is essentially intact, Louisville, and the Cardinals were only a seventh place league team that got hot at season's end, winning the BIG EAST tournament and then four more games in the NCAAs. No reason not to give UofL its due, but this isn't a squad aiming at immortality.

    
tDoug McDermott(Creighton) is head-and-shoulders the Preseason Player of the Year -- great low-post moves in the paint and a feathery touch from distance. bRodney McGruder(Kansas State), gIsaiah Canaan(Murray State), pMatthew Dellavedova(St. Mary's) and bC.J. McCollum(Lehigh) aren't one-man teams (but their splashworthy schools are only going as far as these stars can take them).

    
Expect freshmen to have a big impact this season yet again. Duke and UNC will rely heavily on new players, but as great as they are, Mike Krzyzewski and Roy Williams aren't on the level of John Calipari in terms of molding young teams into Final Four contenders right away -- you can expect Kentucky to be great despite losing all five starters from last year's National Champs. UCLA and Arizona are loaded with new talent, but there's lots to improve on from last year. The superfrosh stepping into the best situations are 5-11 pYogi Ferrell(Indiana), fT.J. Warren and gRodney Purvis(N.C. State), fGlenn Robinson III(Michigan) [son of the Purdue great], fShaq Goodwin(Memphis), fSam Dekker(Wisconsin) and cSteven Adams(Pittsburgh).

Two decades have passed since North Carolina State was top dog (title or tourney) in the ACC. Can the one-word Wolfpack handle the preseason hype (and stay ahead of the growth curve of the young talent at UNC and Duke)? Memphis has all five starters back from last year's TiTo CONFERENCE USA champs. Fortified Stanford[NIT] and Pittsburgh[CBI] (bTrey Zeigler) expect to improve on their consolation crowns.

    
Even though coach John Groce parlayed last year's Sweet 16 run (and near upset of North Carolina in OT) into a jump to Illinois this year, Ohio University figures to be this year's "it" squad in 1BC-land -- all five starters back and, arguably, an even better coach in Jim Christian (who guided Kent State to the Elite 8 in 2002 behind bTrevor Huffman and NFL tight end fAntonio Gates). Lehigh is essentially intact from the squad that upset Duke in the NCAA first round. TiTo champs Davidson[SOUTHERN], Montana[BIG SKY] (bWill Cherry) and Long Island[NORTHEAST] (fJulian Boyd, fJamal Olasewere) expect a repeat and more this year. Mercer expects to trade in its CIT crown for an ATLANTIC SUN title.

    
But sometimes it's harder to be "it" 1BC squad that everybody sees coming -- Harvard, Belmont and Long Beach State couldn't make a splash in last year's NCAAs while OhioU came out of nowhere to shock the world.

In the coaching merry-go-round: Hall of Fame coach Jim Calhoun retired at Connecticut. Hall of Fame coach Larry Brown returned to college at SMU (after Matt Doherty was fired). Bobby Cremins retired at College of Charleston. Billy Gillispie resigned at Texas Tech for health reasons. Seth Greenberg(Virginia Tech), Rick Stansbury(Mississippi State), Chris Lowery(Southern Illinois) and Isiah Thomas(Florida International) were fired. Frank Martin moved to South Carolina (after Darrin Horn was fired); fired/Bruce Weber landed at Kansas State; John Groce moved to Illinois; Jim Chrisitan moved to Ohio University; Trent Johnson left LSU for TCU. Fired/Jim Baron landed at Canisius; Dan Hurley left Wagner for Rhode Island. Fired/Doug Wojcik landed at College of Charleston; Danny Manning took over at Tulsa. Fired/Mike Davis landed at Texas Southern; Jerod Haase took over at UAB.

The BARCLAYS CENTER in Brooklyn (new home of the NBA Nets) is the new venue all over the college basketball calendar: the BC CLASSIC (November), COACHES VS CANCER CLASSIC (November), LEGENDS CLASSIC (November) and the ATLANTIC-10 tournament. The MGM GRAND is now the fourth venue in Las Vegas hosting c-hoops (a two-day Christmas event and the PAC-12 tournament).

We get things started this week with some preseason tournament warm-up games and then a slate of four MILITARY CLASSICS for VETERAN'S DAY weekend (Friday): Ohio State-Marquette, Florida-Georgetown, San Diego State-Syracuse, Michigan State-Connecticut. Last year's darling Lehigh retries the Glass Slipper right away at retooling Baylor (Friday) -- a road loss doesn't turn it back into a Pumpkin, but don't be surprised if the Mountain Hawks can shock the young Bears even in Waco. Akron (featuring 7-0 cZeke Marshall) gets an early chance to make some noise on the road at BIG SOUTH favorite Coastal Carolina (Friday).

(Don't forget ESPN's 24-hour TIP-OFF MARATHON next week: Monday overnight/all-day Tuesday. Included is the second installment of the three-year CHAMPIONS CLASSIC double-header series [in Atlanta /GEORGIA DOME/ this year] featuring Duke-Kentucky and Kansas-Michigan State.)

This year, we're on the road to ATLANTA!!! (I NEED TICKETS!!!)

-- Ron

Key games this week:

Thursday-Tuesday week; Thursday week-Wed 21 Nov:

COACHES VS CANCER CLASSIC WarmUp(2) on-campus, 2nd/Cons @EvansvilleIN;AtlantaGA, 3rd/Semis @ BrooklynNY /BARCLAYS/

-(A: @NotreDame, @StJosephs;

  B: @FloridaSt, @BYU;

  A Cons: Buffalo, @Evansville, Yale, WeIllinois;

  B Cons: @GeorgiaSt, TennesseeSt, SAlabama, Monmouth),

Friday:

Lehigh-@Baylor, @CoCarolina-Akron,

SALUTE TO THE MILITARY 1Offs on-base

  CARRIER CLASSIC @ CharlestonSC /U.S.S. YORKTOWN/

-(OhioSt-Marquette);

  NAVY/MARINE CLASSIC @ JacksonvilleFL /U.S.S. BATAAN/

-(Florida-Georgetown);

  BATTLE ON THE MIDWAY @ SanDiegoCA /U.S.S. MIDWAY/

-(@SanDiegoSt-Syracuse);

  ARMED FORCES CLASSIC @ RAMSTEIN AIR BASE,GERMANY

-(MichiganSt-Connecticut),

Friday; Monday week-Wed 21 Nov:

BC CLASSIC RndRob 1st/Feature @ BrooklynNY /BARCLAYS/, on-campus

-(Fri: Kentucky-Maryland,
@LongIsland-MoreheadSt;

  Lafayette),

Friday-Tuesday week; Saturday week-Sunday week; Mon-Wed 19-21 Nov:

MAUI INVITATIONAL WarmUp(1) on-campus, 3rd/Cons @ ElonNC, 2nd/Qtrs @ LahainaHI

-(Mon 19 Nov [Main]: NCarolina-MississippiSt, Butler-Marquette, Illinois-USC, Texas-@{Chaminade};

  Sat 17 Nov [Cons]: Colgate-@Elon, FLAtlantic-CoppinSt),

Friday-Tuesday week; Saturday week-Sunday week; Fri 23 Nov:

HALL OF FAME TIP-OFF RndRob on-campus, @ UncasvilleCT

-(A: @OhioSt, @RhodeIsland, MOKansasCity, Albany;

  B: @SetonHall, @Washington, LoyolaMD, NorfolkSt),

Friday-Thursday week; Sunday week-Fri 23 Nov:

CBE CLASSIC WarmUp(2) on-campus, 2nd/Cons @ SantaClaraCA ChattanoogaTN, 3rd/Sems @ KansasCityMO

-(A: @Kansas, @WashingtonSt;

 B: @TexasA&M, @StLouis;

 A Cons: @SantaClara, SCUpstate, EaWashington, UTValley;

 B Cons: SEMissouriSt, LouisianaTech, Troy, @Chattanooga),

Friday,Sunday; Wednesday week-Thursday week; Friday week-Sunday week:

2KS CLASSIC WarmUp(2) on-campus, 2nd/Cons @ HempsteadNY NiagaraUniversityNY, 3rd/Semis @ NewYorkNY /MSG/

-(A: @Alabama, @OregonSt;

  B: @Villanova, @Purdue;

  A Cons: @Hofstra, Marshall, SDState, {UDC};

  B Cons: Bucknell, @Niagara, NewMexicoSt, {WAlabama}, {NoNewMexico}),

Saturday-Tue 20 Nov:

GS CLASSIC RndRob on-campus, @ Las VegasNV /UNLV/

-(A: @UNLV, @Oregon, NoArizona, JacksonvilleSt;

  B: @Cincinnati, @IowaSt, Campbell, NCA&T),

Sunday-Thursday week; Mon-Wed 19-21 Nov:

LEGENDS CLASSIC WarmUp(2) on-campus, 2nd/Cons @ PittsburghPA HuntsvilleTX, 3rd/Semis @ BrooklynNY /BARCLAYS/

-(A: @Indiana, @Georgia;

  B: @UCLA, @Georgetown;

  A Cons: @Duquesne, YoungstownSt, JamesMadison, NDState;

  B Cons: SoMississippi, UCIrvine, @SamHoustonSt, Liberty),

Monday week, Thu-Fri,Sun 22-23,25 Nov:

OS/ORLANDO CLASSIC WarmUp(1) on-campus, 1st,2nd/Qtrs @ LakeBuenaVistaFL

-(Mon week: @Gonzaga-WVirginia;

  Thu 22 Nov: Davidson-Vanderbilt, WVirginia-Marist, Oklahoma-UTEP, Gonzaga-Clemson),

Monday week-Tuesday week; Mon-Tue 19-20 Nov; Wed,Fri 21,23 Nov:

NIT SEASON TIP-OFF 1st/16s @ regional sites, Semis/Finals @ NewYorkNY /MSG/

-(  NORTH: @(1n)Michigan-IUPUI, (7n)ClevelandSt-BowlingGreen(OH);

     EAST: @(4e)Pittsburgh-Fordham, @(5e)Lehigh-@(6e)RobertMorris(PA);

   MIDWEST: @(3m)KansasSt-Lamar, NTexas-{ALHuntsville};

    SOUTH: @(2s)Virginia-Fairfield, (8s)Delaware-Penn).

12 Apr 3 - Undeterred (POSTSEASON)

Volume XVI, No. 22 - 12 Apr 3: POSTSEASON

Undeterred

Yes, they were (by far) the most talented roster in the land (including this year's near-unanimous Player of the Year), but these [S1]Kentucky Wildcats were truly a team. Coach John Calipari achieved something that's a lot harder than it seems in molding a collecton of Golden Child superstars into a cohesive unit that played excellent team defense and shared the ball unselfishly on offense. (Compare this team to North Carolina on those qualities to recognize what Coach Cal accomplished.)

    
Give [M2]Kansas credit for not giving up after going down 18 in the first half of the national championship game. The final could have been a laugher by halftime, but the Jayhawks fought back to make it 41-27 at the break, and (with the UK backing off from its near-perfect first-half execution) made the second half interesting enough to get within 5 points with two minutes to go. But with so much talent to draw on collectively, no one Kentucky player had to do it all himself. Most Outstanding Player cAnthony Davis was great defensively (16r6b) but wasn't great offensively (6p5a;1/10fg); this time gDoron Lamb(22p) supplied the offensive punch when needed. gTyshawn Taylor(19p5to) and cThomas Robinson(18p17r) played admirably, but KU couldn't deliver the Villanova-esque performance that would have been necessary to beat this squad.

    
Is Kentucky '12 one of the all-time great teams? Its top 6 players compare favorably to any team you could name; but:
-- [A] it failed to go undefeated (so Indiana '76, U.C.L.A. '64,'67,'72,'73, North Carolina '57 and San Francisco '56
all have something it can't claim);
-- [B]cDavis, fTerrence Jones and fMichael Kidd-Gilchrist aren't likely to come back to try to repeat next year (so it won't match Florida '06-07, Duke '91-92, U.C.L.A. '64-65,'67-73, 'Cincinnati '61-62,
San Francisco '55-56, Kentucky '48-49 and Oklahoma A&M '45-46); and
-- [C] (worst of all) it left the SEC tournament crown on the table (so even Kansas '08, Duke '01, Connecticut '99, Kentucky '98, Georgetown '84, North Carolina '82 and North Carolina State '74 have BCS TiTo credentials it doesn't).

    
But these 'Cats could probably beat many of the others mentioned here.

In the semifinals, [W4]Louisville pulled its smoke and mirrors act again and hung around [S1]Kentucky enough to make things uncomfortable, (but still never in doubt). The Cardinals weren't particularly hitting from outside and kept trying to score inside way too much. Only cAnthony Davis(18p14r5b) had a particularly noteworthy game for the Wildcats, but they have so many pieces that no one player has to do it all.

    
The one full strength head-to-head matchup between Elite Eight teams proved to be as great as expected. [S2]Ohio State took a 13-point lead in the first half behind solid halfcourt D and hitting some threes; but fThomas Robinson(19p8r)'s combination of quickness and strength and foul trouble for bDeShaun Thomas(9p;3/14fg) turned the game around for [M2]Kansas in the second half. cJeff Withey(7 blocks) held fJared Sullinger(13p11r;5/19fg) in check and gAaron Craft kept pTyshawn Taylor(10p9a5to) from dominating; 15p6r from bTravis Releford and 13p10r from xElijah Johnson provided the edge over bWilliam Buford(19p7r). Usually poised OSU crumbled in the final endplay as things slipped away in a game it initially controlled.

In the NIT, it was (3w)Stanford (25-11) [not (1m)Washington] who claimed the crown on behalf of the much maligned PAC-12, in a rout (75-51) in the final over (6s)Minnesota, in fact. (The Cardinal couldn't close out Syracuse in the final of the NIT SEASON TIP-OFF back in November, but it returned to the scene and put away [a much easier opponent].)

    
In CBI final series between BCS busts, Pittsburgh (22-17) won 2-1 over Washington State (66-@67, @57-53, @71-65), giving the BIG EAST a postseason crown.

    
In the CIT (which featured no BCS participants), it was Mercer (26-11), which couldn't win the A-SUN tournament on its own home floor [upset by [6a]Florida Gulf Coast, no less], who won three straight road games (including the final at Utah State) to take the crown and claim a postseason trophy for the 1BCs.

    
Expanding to 68 teams has diluted both the NCAAs and all the consolation tournaments so much that between the NIT, CBI and CIT champs, the only team of accomplishment that any of them beat on the way to their crowns was Stanford's home rout of WAC titlist Nevada. (Not saying much, other than these aren't the days where we need four postseason tourneys.)

The season started with the question of whether any of the three preseason juggernauts (veteran North Carolina and Ohio State as well as new-look Kentucky) could make a serious run at going undefeated. Kentucky and North Carolina met in The Game of the Year in December with the Wildcats prevailing at the buzzer on cAnthony Davis' block of cJohn Henson's jumper. Indiana ended UK's dream on tChristian Watford's game-winning three while Ohio State fell at Kansas without cJared Sullinger. Syracuse, Missouri and Baylor continued to win, but it was 1BC Murray State that was the last undefeated team standing before suffering its first loss at Tennessee State in early February. Meanwhile, an "Elite Eight" teams (UK, 'Cuse, UNC, OSU, Mizzou, Kansas and Duke) separated themselves from the rest of the pack, all looking like easy locks for the Sweet 16 and beyond. (Two historic shockers knocked out Missouri and Duke right away; BIG EAST tourney champ Louisville stunned Michigan State in the Round of 16; and ineligiblity and injury prevented Syracuse and North Carolina from competing at full strength in their Elite Eight showdowns. UK, Kansas and OSU plowed through to the Final Four.)

    
The BIG 10, BIG 12 and BIG EAST had multiple teams ranked highly all year. The SEC's top three were solid and the ACC wound up stronger at the end of the season than it appeared to be most of the way through. The newly fortified/renamed PAC-12 was a bust -- it couldnt' win a single preseason tournament and its teams were rated so poorly that regular season champ Washington didn't even get an NCAA bid (a first for a BCS conference). (BCS busts Stanford and Pittsburgh did rub salt into the wounds of the Mid-Majors by taking the NIT and CBI crowns.)

    
The Mid-Majors began the year with strong expectations on paper with Butler, VCU, Xavier, Gonzaga/St. Mary's, Memphis and Creighton all appearing to be Anti-Spoiler-quality favorites. Only the MOUNTAIN WEST looked to be on a downswing with depleted BYU departed for the WEST COAST and with San Diego State having lost four starters from its all-time best 2010 squad -- but it turned out to be UNLV who made the biggest noise, handing North Carolina its first loss with a home-away-from-home win in the LAS VEGAS-THANKSGIVING final. Meanwhile, Butler flopped and VCU and Memphis struggled early on. Xavier collapsed after an ugly brawl with city rival Cincinnati in their annual CROSSTOWN SHOOTOUT, resulting in multiple player suspensions and destroying confidence and chemistry (but both teams eventually regrouped to make the NCAA Sweet 16). Gonzaga played a tough out-of-conference schedule with so-so results, but St. Mary's turned it on in conference and ended the 'Zags 11-year title streak becoming TiTo champs of the WCC. Drexel (and VCU) came on strong inside their leagues and Memphis regrouped as well. Wichita State thumped Creighton to take the MISSOURI VALLEY title, but the Bluejays took the tourney crown. The COLONIAL and HORIZON wound up as One-Bid Conferences (although VCU was an endplay possession away from making the Sweet 16) and St. Louis saw to it that Memphis didn't get out of the NCAA second round. Claiming some important preseason crowns (St. Louis[76/ANAHEIM], Dayton[OS/ORLANDO]), with Xavier regrouping to make the Sweet 16, and with Massachusetts earning a semifinal spot in New York in the NIT, it's the ATLANTIC 10 which turned out to be the strongest (of a weak year) among the MMs).

    
The 1BCs started the year with only a few veteran teams poised to make noise: Long Beach State, Belmont, Harvard and UNC-Asheville. Harvard did manage to win a preseason tourney [PARADISE], beating eventual ACC tourney champ Florida State along the way; and they all made the NCAAs (all TiTo champs besides the Crimson). Davidson/SOUTHERN(Tito) pulled off the most shocking results -- a road win at eventual NCAA runner-up Kansas. Murray State/OVC(Tito) was in the spotlight all season for being the last unbeaten team to lose (and the Racers did the 1BC world proud with a second-round splash win to boot). But, after a terrible showing in 2010, the 1BCs exploded in the 2011 NCAAs, claiming a Sweet 16 spot (Ohio University/MAC) and two #15/#2 upset shockers over two of the vaunted "Elite Eight": Norfolk State/MEAC over Missouri and Lehigh/PATRIOT over Duke in Greensboro. All in all, a great sign of the healthy state of college basketball.

We've only seen the opening shifts in the multi-year Great Conference Migration -- BIG 10 and PAC-12 up to 12 teams; BIG 12 down to 10 teams. Much more is coming as teams and conferences realign mostly in an effort to become automatic BCS qualifiers for the football bowl revenue. Many traditional rivalries may go by the wayside before all the dust settles. Don't be fooled by the popularity of the NCAA basketball tournament -- it's football that drives the bus.

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This was a much more settled down season for me this year without all of the hectic travel and duties from a year ago. Hopefully, this year's column had more in-depth analysis and was worth reading. I continue to enjoy writing it as much as ever. Thanks, as always, for all the feedback and support.
[Congratulations to the winner of this year's Hoops Contest: Josh Henneman of Vestal, NY over 161 contestants.]

See y'all next year on The Road To ATLANTA! (I NEED TICKETS!!!)

-- Ron