17 Mar20 - Not With A Bang

Volume XXI, No. 20 - 17 Mar20

Not With A Bang

The "Big Three" in the BIG 12 have been solid (mostly) all season long and that continued as they each made it safely into the Sweet 16. [M1]Kansas had no trouble against [M16a]UC-Davis (100-62); and eventually pulled away from young-and-disappointing [M9]Michigan State (90-70). [E3]Baylor looked like it might suffer its third-straight first-round upset when it trailed [E14]New Mexico State at the half, 38-40(H), but the Bears went inside and extended to a blowout (91-73) win; then, hung on against game [E11b]USC thanks to 8-straight points from pManu Lecomte(12p5a) in a crucial stretch for an 82-72 win. [W4]West Virginia held
PATRIOT/TiTo [W13]Bucknell at bay for a too-close (86-80) win; but turned the full force of its all-game press on [W5]Notre Dame to win (83-71). ([M5]Iowa State handled MOUNTAIN WEST/TiTo [M12]Nevada, 84-73; but fell to [M4]Purdue, 76-80 despite 25p from Deonte Burton. [M10]Oklahoma State fell to Party-Crasher [M7]Michigan, 91-92 despite 23p12a7r from pJawun Evans. In the FIRST FOUR Play-In, [S11b]Kansas State outran [S11a]Wake Forest, 95-88 led by pWesley Iwundu[24p7a6r]; but couldn't muster the same offense against [S6]Cincinnati, losing 61-75.)
     In much the same way, the "Big Three" of the PACIFIC-12 have been near the top of the rankings all season long and they each posted two wins through the weekend. [W2]Arizona trounced [W15]North Dakota (100-82); and used its individual talent scoring off the dribble to rally past [W17]St. Mary's (69-60 despite only 4 assists). [M3]Oregon raced past Jack Dawson [M14]Iona (93-77); but needed a closing 7-0 run to rally past Party-Crasher [M11]Rhode Island (75-72 thanks to a game-winning three-pointer from bTyler Dorsey[27p5r]). [S3]UCLA blew out Jack Dawson [S14]Kent State (97-80); and used its depth to tire out [S6]Cincinnati (79-67). (In the FIRST FOUR Play-In, [E16b]USC rallied from a 15-point deficit to overtake [E16a]Providence, 75-71; then escaped an endplay with [E6]SMU, 66-65; but the run came to an end at the hands of [E3]Baylor, 78-82 despite 28p5r from fChimezie Metu.)
     The BIG 10 also placed three teams into the second week -- it's "Big Two" all season long, plus its hottest team to boot. [M4]Purdue didn't have it easy against AMERICA EAST/unbeaten TiTo [M13]Vermont, 80-70; they thought they had put away [M5]Iowa State but had to survive an endplay to win (80-76 behind xCaleb Swanigan[20p12r7a]). [M7]Michigan kept its emotional roll going with an endplay win over [M10]Oklahoma State (92-91 led by pDerrick Walton Jr.[26p11a5r]); and then rallied to beat [M2]@Louisville in Indianapolis (73-@69 behind Moritz Wagner[26p;11/14fg]). Preseason favorite [E8]Wisconsin handled [E9]Virginia Tech (84-74); and then pulled off the shocker of the first weekend: upsetting [E1]Villanova (65-62) as the Badgers played with more poise than the Wildcats in a nail-biter. ([W8]Northwestern's first NCAA appearance came with all the nail-biting excitement you could want in a 68-66 endplay win over [W9]Vanderbilt; a gallant effort turned a blowout rout into a respectable loss against [W1]Gonzaga, 73-79. [M9]Michigan State routed [M8]Miami(Florida), 78-58; then hung with [M1]Kansas into the second half before being blown away, 70-90. [W6]Maryland played one good half before being upset by [W11]Xavier, 65-76. [S5]Minnesota didn't put up much of a fight against last-year's giant-killers [S12]Middle Tennessee, 72-81.)
     The underappreciated SEC managed three teams past the Pod stage -- the expected "Big Two" and a surprise third (with some help from Pod placement). [S2]@Kentucky cruised past Little Brother [S15]Northern Kentucky (79-70); then, couldn't really put away tourney rival [S2]Wichita State (65-62). [E4]Florida pulled away in the second half past [E13]East Tennessee State (80-65); then, shut down [E5]Virginia (65-39). The switch from Greensboro, NC to Greenville, SC was a huge factor -- [E7]@South Carolina routed [E10]Marquette (@93-73 behind xSindarius Thornwell[29p11r]); then, "home" cooking spurred the offense on the way to a @88-81 win over [E2]Duke. ([S8]Arkansas rallied in the second half to beat [S9]Seton Hall, 77-71; then it gave [S1]North Carolina all it wanted before falling 65-72. [W9]Vanderbilt made big mistakes in the closing minutes,
falling to [W8]Northwestern, 66-68.)
     Two BIG EAST teams made it through -- with one huge disappointment swapped for one pretty big surprise. [S4]Butler had the easiest path to Week Two of any team in the draw: handling BIG SOUTH/TiTo [S13]Winthrop (76-64) and ending the Cinderella run of CONFERENCE USA/TiTo [S12]Middle Tennessee (74-65). [W11]Xavier was an unknown having high hopes in the preseason only to be dashed by key injuries during the campaign -- surprise! the Musketeers pulled away from [W6]Maryland to win (76-65); and blew out talented [W3]Florida State in Orlando (91-@66 behind bTrevon Bluiett[29p6r]'s star turn).

(Maybe [E1]Villanova was complacent after going TiTo in the regular season [thanks to key injuries for its rivals] and cruising past [E16b]Mount St. Mary's (76-56); but the Wildcats couldn't dominate [E8]Wisconsin -- last year's National Champs were shaky down the stretch [especially last year's hero, Kris Jenkins, who played so badly in two games {4-for-22 shooting} that he was benched when they needed him most]. Once the endplay was on, panic mode set in as Josh Hart came up empty on two big trips late. With such a strong nucleus returning from a year ago and having played so well in the regular season, you wished it would have taken some Herculean effort to knock them out; but Wisc didn't really play out of its mind in pulling off the upset, 65-62 -- Sigh.

Depleted [M6]Creighton didn't have enough to stave off Party-Crasher [M11]Rhode Island's continued run, losing 72-84. [S9]Seton Hall battled well against [S8]Arkansas, but couldn't hold onto a 9-point lead down the stretch, falling 71-77. [E10]Marquette did well to keep the game close "on the road" (in Greenville) before getting blown out by "host" [E7]@South Carolina, 73-@93. In the FIRST FOUR Play-In, [E11a]Providence was up by 15 into the second half, but gave it away slowly to [E11b]USC, 71-75.)
     After getting a whopping 9 bids into the tournament (and getting an impressive 6 of them through to the second round), the ACC was a flop in Round Two, only managing to get one team through to the Sweet 16. Only [S1]North Carolina was able to post two victories -- cruising past [S16]Texas Southern (103-64); but an up-tempo game didn't worry [S8]Arkansas and it took a 12-0 run to close the game to pull out a come-from-behind 72-65 win. ([M2]Louisville eventually put away Jack Dawson [M15]Jacksonville State(tNorbetas Giga[30p9r]), @78-63 in Indianapolis; things were looking good early but they slipped away against Party-Crasher [M7]Michigan in a @69-73 loss. [E2]Duke crushed Jack Dawson [E15]Troy (87-65); but with its customary "home" Pod taken away [as Greensboro, NC was swapped out for Greenville, SC], things got complicated losing "at" [S7]South Carolina, 81-@88. [W3]Florida State outpaced Little Brother [W14]Florida Gulf Coast, @86-@80, in Orlando; but was routed by [W11]Xavier, @66-91. [E5]Virginia had to scrap to beat COLONIAL/TiTo [E12]UNC-WIlmington, 76-71; but couldn't even post a single player in double-figures in losing to [E4]Florida, 39-65. [W5]Notre Dame couldn't shake IVY/unbeaten TiTo [W12]Princeton, 60-58; but lost its legs against the all-out pressure of [W4]West Virginia, 71-83 despite 27p8r from fBonzie Colson. [M8]Miami(Florida) was a disappointment in its rout loss to young-but-talented [M9]Michigan State, 58-78. [E9]Virginia Tech hung with [E8]Wisconsin longer than expected but still fell 74-84. In the FIRST FOUR Play-In game, [S11a]Wake Forest couldn't keep pace with [S11b]Kansas State, 88-95 despite 26p9r from fJohn Collins.)
     The WEST COAST got one of its "Big Two" through -- about par for the course. [W1]Gonzaga cruised past [W16]South Dakota State (66-46); then managed to give back most of a 20-point lead against [W8]Northwestern before escaping with a 79-73 win. ([S7]St. Mary's kept [W10]VCU at bay through its 85-77 win; and gave [W2]Arizona a scare leading throughout the first half before succumbing 60-69.)

- - - - - -

There are no pretenders is this year's Sweet 16. [M7]Michigan, [E8]Wisconsin and [W11]Xavier were all in the Preseason Top 25, so you can't call them Cinderella teams. [E7]South Carolina is the biggest surprise, but getting to play in Greenville was a big break -- (another reminder of the "Sweetheart Deal" that North Carolina and Duke usually get year-in and year-out with their ACC/NC "home" Pod).
     No Mid-Majors were able to get through to the second week. Five teams went 2-3 overall (including upsets of [E6]SMU, [S7]Dayton) with only Party-Crasher [M11]Rhode Island's first-round upset of [M6]Creighton as the only breakthrough.
     1BCs managed just two first-round wins -- in both cases, you could argue that MISSOURI VALLEY/TiTo [S10]Wichita State (over [S7]Dayton) and [S12]Middle Tennessee (over [S5]Minnesota) were favorites on paper.

In the NIT, only three Mid-Majors even made the field, but they went 2-1 (including a road win for [s6]Richmond). Meanwhile, 15 1BC teams went 8-7 overall (including road wins by [m6]Boise State, [w6]Texas-Arlington, [s7]Oakland, [e7]Belmont, [w7]Akron and [w8]Cal State-Bakersfield).
     In the CBI, [swB2]Utah Valley road-routed [swB1]Georgia Southern (74-@49) to give the WAC two quarterfinalists (along with [nwB1]Missouri-Kansas City). PATRIOT [seA2]Loyola(Maryland) road-routed [seA1]George Mason as well.
     In the CIT, the BIG SOUTH posted two of its three teams past the first round (Liberty, Campbell); going 2-0 were both the SOUTHERN (Furman on the road, Samford) and the BIG SKY (Weber State on the road, Idaho). The SOUTHLAND was a disappointing 1-3 (with only Texas A&M-Corpus Christi posting a win). Getting byes directly into the third-round/quarterfinals were SUMMIT/[1a]Fort Wayne, SOCON/[1b]Furman
and METRO ATLANTIC/[1c]St. Peter's.

- - - - - -

From here, [W1]Gonzaga past [W2]Arizona, [M1]Kansas past [M3]Oregon, [S1]North Carolina past [S3]UCLA and [E8]Wisconsin past [W3]Baylor all should advance to Phoenix.
     In the NIT, look for @[m1]Illinois State past arch-/state-rival [m2]Illinois, [w6]Texas-Arlington over @[w4]Colorado State, @[s4]TCU past [s7]Oakland, @[e1]Syracuse over [e7]Belmont all through to the semifinals in New York.
     In the CBI, MWC/Wyoming and A-10/George Washington (which has to go on the road at HORIZ/Illinois(Chicago) have the strongest pedigrees among the remaining teams.
     In the CIT, SUMMIT/[1a]Fort Wayne is the only team that made noise all the way back in the preseason.

-- Ron

Key games this week:

NCAA

Thursday, Saturday:

MIDWEST REGIONAL Semis,Final @KansasCityMO
• [M1]Kansas v [M4]Purdue
  
• [M3]Oregon v [M7]Michigan
  

WEST REGIONAL Semis,Final @SanJoseCA
• [W1]Gonzaga v [W4]W Virginia
  
• [W2]Arizona v [W11]Xavier
  

Friday, Sunday

SOUTH REGIONAL Semis,Final @MemphisTN
• [S1]N Carolina v [S4]Butler
  
• [S2]@Kentucky v [S3]UCLA
  

EAST REGIONAL Semis,Final @NewYorkNY/MSG/
• [E3]Baylor v [E7]S Carolina
  
• [E4]Florida v [E8]Wisconsin
  

Sat 1 Apr, Mon 3 Apr:

FINAL FOUR,NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP @PhoenixAZ
• {[1/EAST]} v {[4/WEST]}
  
• {[2/MIDWEST]} v {[3/SOUTH]}
  

NIT

Monday:

16s on-campus
• @ [m1]Illinois St v [m4]UCF
  
• @ [m2]Illinois v [m6]Boise St
  
• @ [w4]Colorado St v [w8]Cal St-Bakersfield
  
• @ [w6]TX-Arlington v [w7]Akron
  

Tuesday:

Qtrs on-campus
• @ [s4]TCU v [s6]Richmond
  
• @ [e5]Mississippi v [e6]Georgia Tech
  

Wednesday:

Qtrs on-campus
• {[m1]IllinoisSt/[m4]UCF} v {[m2]Illinois/[m6]BoiseSt}
  
• {[w4]ColoradoSt/[w8]CalStBakersfield} v {[w6]TXArlington/[w7]Akron}
  

Tuesday week, Thursday week:

Semis, Finals @NewYorkNY/MSG/
• {[m]/Illinois St} v {[s]/TCU}
  
• {[e]/Mississippi} v {[w]/Colorado St}
  

CBI

Monday:

Qtrs on-campus
• @ [nwA1]Wyoming v [nwB1]MO-Kansas City
  
• @ [neB1]IL-Chicago v [neA1]Geo Washington
  
• @ [seB1]Co Carolina v [seA2]Loyola-MD
  
• @ [swA1]Rice v [swB2]UT Valley
  

Wednesday:

Semis on-campus (re-seeded)

Monday week, Wednesday week, (if necessary: Friday week):

Finals on-campus (Best of 3)

CIT

Monday:

16s on-campus (re-seeded)
• Liberty v Samford
  
• @ Campbell v TN-Martin
  
• @ Texas A&M-CC v Weber St
  

Wednesday:

16s on-campus (re-seeded)
• @ Texas St v Idaho
  

Saturday-Sunday:

Qtrs on-campus (re-seeded)
• [1a]Ft Wayne, [1b]Furman, [1c]St Peter's, MD-Baltimore Co
  

Wednesday week:

Semis on-campus (re-seeded)

Friday week:

Final on-campus