17 Feb13 - No Zig To The 'Zags (PRESIXTEEN)
Volume XXI, No. 15 - 17 Feb13: PRESIXTEEN - [] Top 25 Ballot
No Zig To The 'Zags
Gonzaga faced the toughest challenge remaining on its schedule and passed with flying colors, handling St. Mary's on the road (74-@64 allowing only one double-figure scorer) -- nothing left (including the WEST COAST tournament) should stand in the way of the Bulldogs' entering the NCAA tournament undefeated. Struggling to stay afloat in the chase for an At-Large bid, BYU tanked at Pepperdine.
Oregon couldn't match the L.A. road double that Arizona already pulled off as UCLA rallied from a 19-point deficit to beat the Ducks (@82-79), but Ore did handle USC on the road (81-@70). Meanwhile, Az was alone in first place in the PACIFIC 12 after edging California (@62-57), with Ore second and UCLA third.
Duke continued its rise, beating arch-rival North Carolina (86-78 led by gGrayson Allen[25p3a]). Virginia continued its split personality, dumping undermanned Louisville on the one hand (@71-55 controlling the boards 38-19) but tripping in double-overtime at Virginia Tech (78-@80[2OT] as the Hokies sank 20-for-26 free throws) on the other. Notre Dame stopped the bleeding, handling Florida State (@84-72 led by cBonzie Colson[33p13r] and pMatt Farrell(15p9a5r]). Miami(Florida) kept Virginia Tech 1-1 on the week with a @74-68 win. UNC led four teams (FlaSt, Lville, Duke, Uva) all tied for second place in the ACC race.
SMU took full advantage of its chance to tie up the AMERICAN race with a @60-51 over Cincinnati.
Upstart Northwestern fell at home against Illinois but took a big step towards earning its first-ever NCAA bid with a road win at Wisconsin (66-@59 led by pBryant McIntosh[25p7a7r]). Maryland fell at Penn State. Indiana tumbled out of contention with two home losses: tripping against Purdue (@64-69
as tVince Edwards[26p8r] led the Boilermakers) and falling against struggling Michigan (@63-75 as gDerrick Walton Jr.[25p4a] led the Wolverines). Wisc led the BIG 10 race, ahead of Md and Purd, with Nwn fourth.
Providence beat Butler (@71-65). With a share of first place on the line, gTrevor Bluiett's early ankle (re-)injury hampered Xavier's chances as Villanova road-dumped the Musketeers (73-@57 despite being outrebounded 25-40). Both Seton Hall and Marquette fell off the pace: Seton lost at St. John's; Marq lost twice -- tripping at Butler (@65-68 as fAndrew Chrabascz[21p5r5s] led the Bulldogs) and then tanking at Georgetown. Nova led the BIG EAST by two games, with Creighton and Xav second, and Butler fourth.
Alabama outlasted South Carolina in FOUR OVERTIMES (90-@86[4OT] as 44p21r from xSindarius Thornwell[44p21r] couldn't save the Gamecocks). That left a three-way tie atop the SEC standings among Florida, Kentucky and SCar.
Iowa State tripped at Texas (65-@67). Kansas State couldn't handle its brutal week, tripping at home against Kansas (@71-74 despite 20p4a6r from bDean Wade) and tanking on the road at West Virginia (66-@85 getting dominated on the boards 26-47). Baylor dumped TCU (@70-52 led by fJohnathan Motley[25p7r]). Texas Tech couldn't keep the pace, tripping twice: first at TCU (61-@62) and then at home against Kansas (@79-80 as Jayhawk xJosh Jackson[31p11r] starred and 25p from Aggie Keenan Evans wasn't enough). What else is new? Kans had a gap lead in the BIG 12, Bayl was second, WVU and IowaSt were third.
Dayton edged Rhode Island on the road (75-@74). That kept Dayt in a tie for first place with VCU in the ATLANTIC 10 standings, ahead of third-place Richmond, with URI in fourth.
San Diego State knocked Nevada out of first place with a solid @70-56 win. Now, it's Boise State that leads the MOUNTAIN WEST, ahead of Colorado State and Nev, with New Mexico fourth.
Texas-Arlington took sole possession of first place in the tight SUN BELT race by beating Arkansas State (@81-75 thanks to 26-for-34 free-throw shooting). Neither Georgia State (who tripped at lowly Appalachian State) nor Georgia Southern (who fell at mediocre newcomer Coastal Carolina) could keep pace. TxArl led four teams (ArkSt, GaSt, GaSo and Texas State) all tied for second.
WAC/New Mexico State fell out of first place with a double-dip on the road: getting dumped by new leader Cal State-Bakersfield (53-@72) and then falling at still reclassifying {Grand Canyon} (71-@83 as pDeWayne Russell[31p7a] led the Antelopes).
COLONIAL/UNC-Wilmington fell at Elon but stayed in first place thanks to College of Charleston's double-dip: tripping at home against Northeastern (@72-73) and then falling on the road at William & Mary (79-@89 as the Tribe's fOmar Prewitt[30p7r] dueled 26p from Grant Riller).
SOUTHERN/Furman took over first place with a big week: edging Chattanooga (@60-56) and thumping Samford (@90-73). Meanwhile, East Tennessee State fell off the pace, tripping at mediocre Wofford.
MID-AMERICAN/Akron continued to roll (now with a FOUR-GAME GAP), edging Ball State (@65-63) and winning on the road at Eastern Michigan as well.
OHIO VALLEY/Belmont still has a gap after splitting on the week: winning at Jacksonville State but falling at lowly Tennessee Tech.
AMERICA EAST/Vermont stayed unbeaten with a gap lead after edging on the road at Maryland-Baltimore County.
SUMMIT/North Dakota State thumped Denver (@81-63). SOUTHLAND/Sam Houston State tripped in overtime at Lamar, leaving New Orleans alone in first place. BIG SOUTH/UNC-Asheville tied for the lead (along with Liberty) after outlasting Wintrhop in double-overtime (@104-101[2OT] as xAhmad Thomas[26p10r5to] dueled 40p4a from gKeon Johnson). PATRIOT/Bucknell maintained a gap lead despite losing at Lehigh (71-@79 as bAustin Price[25p6r;5/9 3s] led the Mountain Hawks). IVY/Princeton stayed unbeaten with a gap lead after edging Columbia (@61-59) -- (too bad there's no more automatic NCAA bid for winning the regular season title anymore; now the Tigers have to win their way in [like every other 1BC] via the new conference tournament and get past most likely Harvard, Yale and Colum at The PALESTRA to do so!) ATLANTIC SUN/Lipscomb tied things up at the top with a road win at co-leader Florida Gulf Coast (65-@60). BIG SKY/Weber State still led despite tripping at Sacramento State. SWAC/Texas Southern stayed in first with a road win at Grambling State.
- - - - - -
Hoping (I guess) to generate excitement for the tournament, the NCAA Selection Committee released its "PRE-BRACKET" of the top sixteen teams with their seeds and regional placement as they would be if the tournament began today (i.e., on Saturday). (I'm not at all a fan of "poisoning the well" like this ahead of time. We already have enough problems with name-recognition bias, B-Major conference bias and the like. There's no way that pollsters will be able to block out this evaluation of teams and deliver "blind" Top-25 ballots from this point going forward. [For myself, I try as much as possible to avoid looking at the national polls all season and just make my own Top 25 ballot as independently as possible and be self-referential when I adjust it week-to-week.]) (For absolutely no purpose at all besides trying to match the "Bracketology" buzz by ESPN and others), CBS filled out a complete bracket of 68 teams and speculated about the mythical matchups (... um, who cares!?).
Here's the NCAA's "PRE-SIXTEEN" (including their actual overall seed from 1 to 16. There's no more "S-Curve" -- placing teams is now first-and-foremost about geographical preference and separating conferencemates. They didn't specify any Pod placements beside Villanova in Buffalo):
"The top four were head-and-shoulders above the rest." -- (Disagree) "Creighton, Wisconsin, Purdue and Cincinnati were the next ones out." -- (or should have been in ahead of up-and-down name brand Duke, Virginia and Florida State. West Virginia routed Kansas and Baylor and won on the road at Virginia and gets a 14-seed -- Huh!?)
(For me, Gonzaga is well separated above everyone else by rating [with the WCC hanging in well with a 36-21 record in big interconference matchups]; Villlanova is separate above the rest at No.2; but there are nearly 20 teams well bunched together in an elite group below those two. I'm surprised by the dis of Purdue and Wisconsin with the BIG 10 rated as the third-best league overall [behind the BIG 12 and ACC]). This "Pre-Sixteen" doesn't bode well for any Anti-Spoiler 1BCs' getting the nod over B-Major also-rans for At-Large bids -- that's always the real controversy at this point with 68 teams in the draw. If teams like UNC-Wilmington, Middle Tennessee, Monmouth, Texas-Arlington, Valparaiso, Vermont, Akron, New Mexico State and Belmont [not to mention Nevada and Illinois State] don't get in at the expense of .500-or-below B-Majors, we'll all be the worse for it. It wouldn't be so bad if the NIT went one step further and gave 1BC regular season champs a home game on top of an automatic bid. Too many wonderful teams have seen their all-time seasons end in shameful road blowouts on B-Major also-ran home courts -- they deserve a postseason curtain call at home, win or lose.)
- - - - - -
Villanova visits Seton Hall (Saturday). Kansas has a huge week, hosting West Virginia (Monday) and visiting Baylor (Saturday). West Virginia hosts Texas Tech (Saturday). Baylor visits Texas Tech (Monday). UCLA looks to sweep visiting arch-/city-rival USC (Saturday). Duke visits Virginia (Wednesday). SMU visits Houston (Saturday). Creighton visits Seton Hall (Wednesday). Virginia visits North Carolina (Saturday). Louisville hosts Virginia Tech (Saturday). South Carolina hosts Arkansas (Wednesday). St. Mary's visits BYU (Saturday). Maryland has a rough week with two road games: at Northwestern (Wednesday) and at Wisconsin (Sunday).
Wounded Xavier visits slumping Marquette (Saturday). Part Two of the BLACK & BLUE CLASSIC has A-10 first-place implications when VCU visits Richmond looking for a season sweep. Iowa State has two big games: at Kansas State (Wednesday) and vs TCU (Saturday).
Texas-Arlington tries to separate from the SUN BELT pack when it visits Georgia State (Saturday). In the SOCON, East Tennessee State visits Chattanooga (Saturday) while Furman hosts UNC-Greensboro (Saturday). In the MWC Wars, it's New Mexico hosting Boise State (Tuesday).
BIGS/Winthrop hosts Liberty (Saturday). SKY/Weber State hosts North Dakota (Saturday).
-- Ron
Top 25 - 17 Feb13: PRESIXTEEN - [] Column
No Zig To The 'Zags
Gonzaga faced the toughest challenge remaining on its schedule and passed with flying colors, handling St. Mary's on the road (74-@64 allowing only one double-figure scorer) -- nothing left (including the WEST COAST tournament) should stand in the way of the Bulldogs' entering the NCAA tournament undefeated. Struggling to stay afloat in the chase for an At-Large bid, BYU tanked at Pepperdine.
Oregon couldn't match the L.A. road double that Arizona already pulled off as UCLA rallied from a 19-point deficit to beat the Ducks (@82-79), but Ore did handle USC on the road (81-@70). Meanwhile, Az was alone in first place in the PACIFIC 12 after edging California (@62-57), with Ore second and UCLA third.
Duke continued its rise, beating arch-rival North Carolina (86-78 led by gGrayson Allen[25p3a]). Virginia continued its split personality, dumping undermanned Louisville on the one hand (@71-55 controlling the boards 38-19) but tripping in double-overtime at Virginia Tech (78-@80[2OT] as the Hokies sank 20-for-26 free throws) on the other. Notre Dame stopped the bleeding, handling Florida State (@84-72 led by cBonzie Colson[33p13r] and pMatt Farrell(15p9a5r]). Miami(Florida) kept Virginia Tech 1-1 on the week with a @74-68 win. UNC led four teams (FlaSt, Lville, Duke, Uva) all tied for second place in the ACC race.
SMU took full advantage of its chance to tie up the AMERICAN race with a @60-51 over Cincinnati.
Upstart Northwestern fell at home against Illinois but took a big step towards earning its first-ever NCAA bid with a road win at Wisconsin (66-@59 led by pBryant McIntosh[25p7a7r]). Maryland fell at Penn State. Indiana tumbled out of contention with two home losses: tripping against Purdue (@64-69
as tVince Edwards[26p8r] led the Boilermakers) and falling against struggling Michigan (@63-75 as gDerrick Walton Jr.[25p4a] led the Wolverines). Wisc led the BIG 10 race, ahead of Md and Purd, with Nwn fourth.
Providence beat Butler (@71-65). With a share of first place on the line, gTrevor Bluiett's early ankle (re-)injury hampered Xavier's chances as Villanova road-dumped the Musketeers (73-@57 despite being outrebounded 25-40). Both Seton Hall and Marquette fell off the pace: Seton lost at St. John's; Marq lost twice -- tripping at Butler (@65-68 as fAndrew Chrabascz[21p5r5s] led the Bulldogs) and then tanking at Georgetown. Nova led the BIG EAST by two games, with Creighton and Xav second, and Butler fourth.
Alabama outlasted South Carolina in FOUR OVERTIMES (90-@86[4OT] as 44p21r from xSindarius Thornwell[44p21r] couldn't save the Gamecocks). That left a three-way tie atop the SEC standings among Florida, Kentucky and SCar.
Iowa State tripped at Texas (65-@67). Kansas State couldn't handle its brutal week, tripping at home against Kansas (@71-74 despite 20p4a6r from bDean Wade) and tanking on the road at West Virginia (66-@85 getting dominated on the boards 26-47). Baylor dumped TCU (@70-52 led by fJohnathan Motley[25p7r]). Texas Tech couldn't keep the pace, tripping twice: first at TCU (61-@62) and then at home against Kansas (@79-80 as Jayhawk xJosh Jackson[31p11r] starred and 25p from Aggie Keenan Evans wasn't enough). What else is new? Kans had a gap lead in the BIG 12, Bayl was second, WVU and IowaSt were third.
Dayton edged Rhode Island on the road (75-@74). That kept Dayt in a tie for first place with VCU in the ATLANTIC 10 standings, ahead of third-place Richmond, with URI in fourth.
San Diego State knocked Nevada out of first place with a solid @70-56 win. Now, it's Boise State that leads the MOUNTAIN WEST, ahead of Colorado State and Nev, with New Mexico fourth.
Texas-Arlington took sole possession of first place in the tight SUN BELT race by beating Arkansas State (@81-75 thanks to 26-for-34 free-throw shooting). Neither Georgia State (who tripped at lowly Appalachian State) nor Georgia Southern (who fell at mediocre newcomer Coastal Carolina) could keep pace. TxArl led four teams (ArkSt, GaSt, GaSo and Texas State) all tied for second.
WAC/New Mexico State fell out of first place with a double-dip on the road: getting dumped by new leader Cal State-Bakersfield (53-@72) and then falling at still reclassifying {Grand Canyon} (71-@83 as pDeWayne Russell[31p7a] led the Antelopes).
COLONIAL/UNC-Wilmington fell at Elon but stayed in first place thanks to College of Charleston's double-dip: tripping at home against Northeastern (@72-73) and then falling on the road at William & Mary (79-@89 as the Tribe's fOmar Prewitt[30p7r] dueled 26p from Grant Riller).
SOUTHERN/Furman took over first place with a big week: edging Chattanooga (@60-56) and thumping Samford (@90-73). Meanwhile, East Tennessee State fell off the pace, tripping at mediocre Wofford.
MID-AMERICAN/Akron continued to roll (now with a FOUR-GAME GAP), edging Ball State (@65-63) and winning on the road at Eastern Michigan as well.
OHIO VALLEY/Belmont still has a gap after splitting on the week: winning at Jacksonville State but falling at lowly Tennessee Tech.
AMERICA EAST/Vermont stayed unbeaten with a gap lead after edging on the road at Maryland-Baltimore County.
SUMMIT/North Dakota State thumped Denver (@81-63). SOUTHLAND/Sam Houston State tripped in overtime at Lamar, leaving New Orleans alone in first place. BIG SOUTH/UNC-Asheville tied for the lead (along with Liberty) after outlasting Wintrhop in double-overtime (@104-101[2OT] as xAhmad Thomas[26p10r5to] dueled 40p4a from gKeon Johnson). PATRIOT/Bucknell maintained a gap lead despite losing at Lehigh (71-@79 as bAustin Price[25p6r;5/9 3s] led the Mountain Hawks). IVY/Princeton stayed unbeaten with a gap lead after edging Columbia (@61-59) -- (too bad there's no more automatic NCAA bid for winning the regular season title anymore; now the Tigers have to win their way in [like every other 1BC] via the new conference tournament and get past most likely Harvard, Yale and Colum at The PALESTRA to do so!) ATLANTIC SUN/Lipscomb tied things up at the top with a road win at co-leader Florida Gulf Coast (65-@60). BIG SKY/Weber State still led despite tripping at Sacramento State. SWAC/Texas Southern stayed in first with a road win at Grambling State.
- - - - - -
Hoping (I guess) to generate excitement for the tournament, the NCAA Selection Committee released its "PRE-BRACKET" of the top sixteen teams with their seeds and regional placement as they would be if the tournament began today (i.e., on Saturday). (I'm not at all a fan of "poisoning the well" like this ahead of time. We already have enough problems with name-recognition bias, B-Major conference bias and the like. There's no way that pollsters will be able to block out this evaluation of teams and deliver "blind" Top-25 ballots from this point going forward. [For myself, I try as much as possible to avoid looking at the national polls all season and just make my own Top 25 ballot as independently as possible and be self-referential when I adjust it week-to-week.]) (For absolutely no purpose at all besides trying to match the "Bracketology" buzz by ESPN and others), CBS filled out a complete bracket of 68 teams and speculated about the mythical matchups (... um, who cares!?).
Here's the NCAA's "PRE-SIXTEEN" (including their actual overall seed from 1 to 16. There's no more "S-Curve" -- placing teams is now first-and-foremost about geographical preference and separating conferencemates. They didn't specify any Pod placements beside Villanova in Buffalo):
| EAST [New York] | MIDWEST [Kansas City] | SOUTH [Memphis] | WEST [San Jose] |
| 1-Villanova (Buffalo) | 2-Kansas | 3-Baylor | 4-Gonzaga |
| 7-Louisville | 6-Florida State | 5-North Carolina | 8-Oregon |
| 12-Kentucky | 9-Arizona | 11-Florida | 10-Virginia |
| 15-UCLA | 16-Duke | 13-Butler | 14-West Virginia |
"The top four were head-and-shoulders above the rest." -- (Disagree) "Creighton, Wisconsin, Purdue and Cincinnati were the next ones out." -- (or should have been in ahead of up-and-down name brand Duke, Virginia and Florida State. West Virginia routed Kansas and Baylor and won on the road at Virginia and gets a 14-seed -- Huh!?)
(For me, Gonzaga is well separated above everyone else by rating [with the WCC hanging in well with a 36-21 record in big interconference matchups]; Villlanova is separate above the rest at No.2; but there are nearly 20 teams well bunched together in an elite group below those two. I'm surprised by the dis of Purdue and Wisconsin with the BIG 10 rated as the third-best league overall [behind the BIG 12 and ACC]). This "Pre-Sixteen" doesn't bode well for any Anti-Spoiler 1BCs' getting the nod over B-Major also-rans for At-Large bids -- that's always the real controversy at this point with 68 teams in the draw. If teams like UNC-Wilmington, Middle Tennessee, Monmouth, Texas-Arlington, Valparaiso, Vermont, Akron, New Mexico State and Belmont [not to mention Nevada and Illinois State] don't get in at the expense of .500-or-below B-Majors, we'll all be the worse for it. It wouldn't be so bad if the NIT went one step further and gave 1BC regular season champs a home game on top of an automatic bid. Too many wonderful teams have seen their all-time seasons end in shameful road blowouts on B-Major also-ran home courts -- they deserve a postseason curtain call at home, win or lose.)
- - - - - -
Villanova visits Seton Hall (Saturday). Kansas has a huge week, hosting West Virginia (Monday) and visiting Baylor (Saturday). West Virginia hosts Texas Tech (Saturday). Baylor visits Texas Tech (Monday). UCLA looks to sweep visiting arch-/city-rival USC (Saturday). Duke visits Virginia (Wednesday). SMU visits Houston (Saturday). Creighton visits Seton Hall (Wednesday). Virginia visits North Carolina (Saturday). Louisville hosts Virginia Tech (Saturday). South Carolina hosts Arkansas (Wednesday). St. Mary's visits BYU (Saturday). Maryland has a rough week with two road games: at Northwestern (Wednesday) and at Wisconsin (Sunday).
Wounded Xavier visits slumping Marquette (Saturday). Part Two of the BLACK & BLUE CLASSIC has A-10 first-place implications when VCU visits Richmond looking for a season sweep. Iowa State has two big games: at Kansas State (Wednesday) and vs TCU (Saturday).
Texas-Arlington tries to separate from the SUN BELT pack when it visits Georgia State (Saturday). In the SOCON, East Tennessee State visits Chattanooga (Saturday) while Furman hosts UNC-Greensboro (Saturday). In the MWC Wars, it's New Mexico hosting Boise State (Tuesday).
BIGS/Winthrop hosts Liberty (Saturday). SKY/Weber State hosts North Dakota (Saturday).
-- Ron
- Key games this week:
- Monday:
- @Kansas-WVirginia, Baylor-@TexasTech(TX), Louisville-@
Syracuse,
- Tuesday:
- @NewMexico-BoiseSt,
- Wednesday:
- Duke-@Virginia, Creighton-@SetonHall, @SCarolina-Arkansas, @Northwestern-Maryland, @KansasSt-IowaSt, @
FtWayne-NDState,
- Thursday:
- @Oregon-
Utah, Wisconsin-@Michigan,
- Friday:
- @
Oakland-Valparaiso, @Yale-Princeton, @Quinnipiac-Fairfield(CT)(CT6),
BLACK & BLUE CLASSIC Home/Away2 on-campus
-(@Richmond-VCU[RichmondVA]),
- Saturday:
- Villanova-@SetonHall, Kansas-@Baylor, @WVirginia-TexasTech, @UCLA-USC(LosAngelesCA), @Purdue-
MichiganSt, SMU-@Houston(TX), Virginia-@NCarolina, @Louisville-VirginiaTech, StMarys-@BYU, @Dayton-StBonaventure, @Marquette-Xavier, @IowaSt-TCU, @GeorgiaSt-TXArlington, @Akron-KentSt(OH)(NEO), @Chattanooga-ETennesseeSt(TN), @Belmont-MoreheadSt, @LaSalle-StJosephs(PhiladelphiaPA)(BIG5), @Furman-UNCGreensboro, @Winthrop-Liberty, @SCUpstate-FLGulfCoast, @FairleighDickinson-MtStMarys, @WeberSt-NDakota,
STAR GAME on-campus
-(@Navy-ArmyWP[MIL]),
- Sunday:
- @Wisconsin-Maryland, @Minnesota-
Michigan, @BostonU-Bucknell,
- - - - - - -
- Monday week:
- Monday week:
- @TexasTech-IowaSt, @
GeorgiaSo-TXArlington, @GeorgiaSt-TexasSt.
Top 25 - 17 Feb13: PRESIXTEEN - [] Column
- Gonzaga (26-0)
- Villanova (24-2) [BIG5]
- Kansas (22-3) (@SEC)
- West Virginia (20-5) (vSEC)
- Baylor (21-3) (@SEC)
- Oregon (21-4)
- Arizona (23-3)
- UCLA (23-3)
- Purdue (20-5)
- Duke (20-5)
- SMU (22-4)
- Florida (20-5) (@BIG12)
- Creighton (20-4)
- Kentucky (20-5)
- Virginia (18-6)
- North Carolina (20-5)
- Louisville (20-5)
- Notre Dame (19-7)
- Cincinnati (22-3) (vXTOWN)
- Florida State (21-5)
- Butler (19-6)
- South Carolina (19-5)
- St. Mary's (22-3)
- Northwestern (19-6)
- Wisconsin (21-4)
- Honorable Mention:
Alabama (14-10),Texas(10-15).
Texas-Arlington (16-6),
Cal State-Bakersfield(13-7),
UNC-Asheville(18-7),
Lipscomb(14-11).
posted by Ron @ Wednesday, March 01, 2017
