07Jan 1 - Déjà Vu

Volume XI, No. 9 - 07 Jan 1: PRECONFERENCE - [] Top 25 Ballot

Déjà Vu

Nevada and Gonzaga played a great game in the BATTLE IN SEATTLE, with the Wolf Pack starting and finishing strong in an 82-@74 victory. fNick Fazekas(24p9r2b3s) was great, but he had fouled by the time GU had seemingly taken control of the game. Thanks to gMarcelus Kemp(21p) and fRamon Sessions(20p8r4a3s), UofN had the last spurt that claimed the win. Except for a home loss to UNLV (who had enough in them to deny Bob Knight's victory party), Nevada would be another undefeated media darling. (It's probably better for them that they're not, actually.) Gonzaga's ambitious preseason schedule has given them some big-name wins (North Carolina, Texas, Washington), but it also has them heading into conference play already with 5 losses (Duke, Butler, Nevada, Washington State, Georgia) with a road game at Virginia on Wednesday yet to come. There's no danger they won't get an NCAA bid even if they don't win the WCC regular season or tournament, but they probably can't be higher than a #4-seed now.

Connecticut's revamped lineup failed its reality check on the road against West Virginia's revamped lineup, as the Mountaineers were in control throughout their @81-71 win. Only fFrank Young(22p) returns as a mainstay from last year for WVU. It's the system, stupid, and coach John Beiheim has his charges well ahead of Jim Calhoun's. UConn still doesn't know who its go-to players are yet. They have a lot to sort out, and all those cupcake games in front of the home folk may not have gotten this team ready for conference play after all. Oregon's undefeated team hasn't been much tested, either; but at least this is a squad returning all five starters from last year that has added some freshman talent as well. They were always much less suspect (but it's baptism by fire for the Ducks this week as they first must avoid a tricky home game against USC on Thursday just to get to The Battle Of The Unbeatens on Saturday when they host UCLA). Clemson returned a veteran nucleus from last year's 19-13 squad, but better Clemson teams than this one have rolled through the preseason impressively with high hopes only to be beaten to a pulp by the rough ACC regular season. Their @75-60 win over surprising Georgia (playing without its point guard) doesn't really validate their ranking, but it's close enough. Better news for this year's Tigers is that, aside from North Carolina, most everyone else in the ACC is highly suspect and has shown vulnerability to go along with their talent. A less talented, focused team coached by Oliver Purnell might do very well in the regular season.

Xavier showed some signs of life with a @65-59 win over visiting Illinois behind 17p5a from pDrew Lavender. UNLV temporarily spoiled the celebration in Lubbock for Bob Knight, beating Texas Tech 74-@66 (thanks to 21p5r3a from the coach's son, bKevin Kruger). Air Force was an Unwelcome Guest winner of the CABLE CAR CLASSIC at the expense of host Santa Clara, 78-@48 (as the Falcons shot 16-for-30 on three-pointers). Likewise, Colorado State spoiled the party, winning the DR. PEPPER CLASSIC, 76-@65, over host Chattanooga. Even 2-10 Delaware was able to take two out of three games, claiming the crown at the EXPLORER CLASSIC hosted by La Salle. Hofstra beat host St. John's in the all-New York final of the HOLIDAY FESTIVAL, @63-@51. Elsewhere, LSU swept its three-day round-robin showcase HISPANIC COLLEGE FUND-SOUTH CLASSIC (and gets to claim the overall NORTH/SOUTH crown when it hosts Connecticut on Saturday). Marist and College of Charleston each won their own traditional two-day bracket showcases.

UCLA got off to a great start in the rough Pac-10, escaping @55-52 against feisty Washington State and then crushing Washington @96-74. While the Bruins are playing better ball this week, Florida's tougher schedule gives the Gators the nod as the official #1 for the preconference season. Could we really be headed for a repeat national championship game? (We've had Final Four rematches in consecutive years before -- remember Duke-UNLV in 1990 and 1991? -- but the only time it happened in the final was when Cincinnati defeated Ohio State in 1961 and 1962.) Butler's win at the NIT TIP-OFF was the biggest news of the preseason. The Bulldogs have continued to play solidly, so they've become another Gonzaga: a can't-miss NCAA bid for a team from a One-Bid-Conference -- and Butler plays close games so an upset in the Horizon League is a big worry. Oral Roberts' shocking win at Kansas is already just a footnote. The Golden Eagles have since struggled to a 6-7 record and that one big win won't guarantee them anything if they don't win the Mid-Continent tournament. The superfrosh at North Carolina and Ohio State have cruised through the preseason just fine, but may yet have another level once they get toughened up by league play. Meanwhile, for the youngsters at Texas and Georgia Tech, it's been more of a mixed bag, especially defensively where neither team has been especially focused. The MVC teams were fantastic the first part of the preseason, with both Wichita State and Missouri State flirting with the Top 10. While most every league team did something noteworthy, they've all faded just below the rankings as conference play starts (and if WSU doesn't get it together this week, they could easily find themselves 0-4 seven days from now and in a real fight just to get an NCAA bid).

Conference play gets under way for everyone this week. The MVC has established itself as The Seventh Major, with multiple teams capable of pulling off a Top-25 win. Butler moved the Horizon League into Major/1BC status along with Gonzaga and the WCC. The Atlantic 10 may return to multiple-bid status while the Colonial will likely fall back into the 1BC mix. Despite its up-and-down season, Oral Roberts proved it could make a major splash (as did Provisional D-I {North Dakota State} for the second straight year). Also with that potential likely are Akron, Western Kentucky, Winthrop and Marist. Everyone beyond that are first-round losers. (If Jackson State gets relegated to the Play-In game, they'll be a huge favorite over anyone else.)

Here's a quick summary of the conference rated by their biggest win/depth of quality teams:

1. ACC - Young, gifted and blue: North Carolina's freshman haven't had any trouble with college hoops so far. Duke keeps on winning, but there's no unguardable superstar around waiting to bail them out when things go bad. Florida State has the talent, but does it truly believe it's an elite squad? Maryland [COLLEGE HOOPS] has been playing on a mission all season long. Clemson probably believes more than it should. Georgia Tech may be too young to be consistent. Boston College and Virginia have been very good and very bad.
2. BIG EAST - Pittsburgh has quality depth all around. Notre Dame may have the best collection of perimeter/free-throw shooters of any team in the country. Marquette [CBE] depends a lot of its tough perimeter players. Syracuse and Connecticut haven't ventured far from home much so far. Georgetown isn't as dominant as last year, but is still solid. West Virginia just might keep on winning with a new set of players. Providence may squeeze into an NCAA bid with a mid-league finish.
3. SEC - Florida has the most dominant performance against the highest quality opponent in all of the preseason. Tennessee has won some big games in front of home crowds. Alabama [PARADISE JAM] isn't as flashy, but is quietly playing very solid ball. Arkansas [ESPNU] doesn't have muscle, but can be effective with quickness. LSU hasn't been able to dominate teams without a quality backcourt to balance with its frontcourt. Georgia has been a surprise; Kentucky and Vanderbilt's so-so season's have been pretty much as expected.
4. PAC-10 - UCLA [MAUI] may be playing better hoops than anyone at the moment. Arizona has more offensive talent in its starting five than any other club. Veteran Oregon has handled everything it's been given so far. Washington has big wins and big losses. Washington State plays it close even against the best talent. USC, Stanford and California [GREAT ALASKA] all have name wins on their resumes.
5. BIG 12 - Kansas [LAS VEGAS-THANKSGIVING] has been both good and bad. Oklahoma State [SOUTH PADRE ISLAND] has been solid every time out. Texas A&M has everything except a name win to show for a strong preseason. Young Texas has shown its age with inconsistent results. Missouri, Texas Tech and Nebraska have been solid. Even rough Kansas State [LAS VEGAS-CHRISTMAS] made its name.
6. BIG 10 - Does the nation's best player suit up for Wisconsin or maybe Ohio State [BCA CLASSIC-OHIO]? -- both schools have Final Four potential. Michigan State, Illinois [CHICAGO] and Purdue have been better than expected. Indiana and Michigan are still awaiting a breakthrough win.
7. MVC - Take your pick as to who's best among Wichita State, Missouri State, Southern Illinois, Creighton, Bradley or Northern Iowa. Any one of them could make a Sweet 16 run. And Indiana State and Drake [SUN BOWL] made their own noise to boot.
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8. WAC - Nevada has a star player (cNick Fazekas) who can return them to the Sweet 16. Fresno State, Hawaii [RAINBOW] and Utah State [TOP OF THE WORLD] all proved themselves as well.
9. A-10 - Xavier, Dayton, St. Louis and even Duquesne broke through with name wins. Massachusetts and George Washington have just as much talent. Charlotte is better on paper than in reality.
10. WCC - Gonzaga's killer preseason schedule may backfire if it stumbles at all in conference -- (which shouldn't happen). Loyola Marymount and San Diego [GOLDEN BEAR] may be good enough to spoil the party.
11. HORIZON - Things fell right for Butler [NIT TIP-OFF], but this squad has a plan and sticks to it. They're no easy out. Loyola-Illinois isn't in their class.
12. MID-CONTINENT - Oral Roberts' veteran squad proved it could compete with Grade-A talent when it won at Kansas (but overall consistency has been a problem).
13. INDEPENDENTS - {North Dakota State} [BLUE AND GOLD] won't get an NCAA bid, but plenty of teams can't win at Marquette.
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14. MOUNTAIN WEST - Air Force [CABLE CAR], UNLV and San Diego State [SHAMROCK INVITATIONAL] should make this a multi-bid league.
15. C-USA - SMU and Tulsa had better name wins, but it's still Memphis that is the class of the league.
16. COLONIAL - Old Dominion and Drexel were able to break through on the road against name teams, but VCU may be the best team overall. George Mason and Hofstra [HOLIDAY FESTIVAL] expected more from themselves. Delaware [EXPLORER] got the most out of the least.
17. SUN BELT - Western Kentucky has had the strongest preseason, but North Texas and Arkansas-Little Rock also made noise.
18. MID-AMERICAN - Akron, the veterans at Ohio University and even Toledo and Western Michigan were all able to beat name teams.
19. AMERICA EAST - Vermont broke through early on and Albany has played a rough schedule.
20. BIG WEST - UC-Santa Barbara is the "best" of a disappointing group. (More was expected of Long Beach State, especially.)
21. OHIO VALLEY - Eastern Kentucky will challenge the veterans at Samford.
22. SOUTHERN - New blood at Davidson [ASU CLASSIC] and Appalachian State [SAN JUAN SHOOTOUT] have already broken through. College of Charleston doesn't seem to have it.
23. PATRIOT - Army may be strong, but they still have to go through veteran holdovers at Holy Cross and Bucknell to prove it.
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24. BIG SOUTH - Winthrop has played The Big Boys tough even at their place, but couldn't finish anything off with a W. But this veteran team knows it can get it done.
25. METRO ATLANTIC - Marist couldn't pull off any splash wins in the preseason, but pJared Jordan is a top-quality guard who may get one moment to shine.
26. SOUTHLAND - Southeast Louisiana [RAIN INVITATIONAL] will battle Sam Houston State, but won't make noise otherwise.
27. NORTHEAST - Sacred Heart should take it; the veterans at Monmouth can't get it going.
28. BIG SKY - Northern Arizona made a squeak here and there, but was mostly dismal. At least Eastern Washington has a great player to watch in bRodney Stuckey.
29. IVY - Improved Princeton has a shot at Penn under its new coach (but that's as far as it goes).
30. SWAC - Jackson State took some surprise wins even on the road.
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31. ATLANTIC SUN - Belmont and Lipscomb should be able to hold off East Tennessee State, but no one came close out-of-conference.
32. MEAC - Delaware State played an ambitious schedule, but wasn't able to make a mark.

-- Ron

Key games this week:

Monday:
@Alabama-Oklahoma, WichitaSt@SoIllinois, @TexasTech-NewMexico,

Tuesday:
@OhioSt-Indiana, @TexasA&M-Winthrop, MissouriSt@Bradley, @Samford-TennesseeTech,

Wednesday:
@NCarolina-Penn, @FloridaSt-Clemson, @NotreDame-Louisville, Gonzaga@Virginia, AirForce@ColoradoSt, @Xavier-KansasSt, Illinois@Michigan, @Stanford-California,

Thursday:
Arizona@Washington, Pittsburgh@Syracuse, Marquette@Providence, @Oregon-USC, @WichitaSt-Bradley, SoIllinois@Drake, @Dayton-Charlotte, UCSantaBarbara@LongBeachSt, SamHoustonSt@SELouisiana,

Saturday:
@Florida-Georgia, UCLA@Oregon, Arizona@WashingtonSt, OhioSt@Illinois, @Butler-WrightSt, NotreDame@Georgetown, Alabama@Arkansas, @Gonzaga-LoyolaMarymount, @AirForce-UNLV, @TexasA&M-KansasSt, @Clemson-GeorgiaTech, Akron-OhioU, SoIllinois@NoIowa, @Nebraska-WeKentucky, Bradley@Drake, SanDiegoSt@BYU, GeoMason@OldDominion, @FresnoSt-UtahSt, @TexasTech-Oklahoma, @Davidson-ColofCharleston, @NoArizona-EaWashington,
HISPANIC COLLEGE FUND-NORTH/SOUTH Final @ Baton Rouge LA
- (@LSU-Connecticut),

Sunday:
@NCarolina-FloridaSt, MichiganSt@Indiana, @Marquette-Syracuse, WichitaSt@MissouriSt, @Virginia-Stanford.

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Top 25 - 07 Jan 1: PRECONFERENCE - [] Column

1. Florida (12-2)
2. UCLA (12-0)[:MAUI(8)]
3. North Carolina (12-1)
4. Wisconsin (14-1)
5. Duke (12-1)
6. Arizona (11-1)
7. Kansas (11-2)[:LAS VEGAS-THANKS(2x4)]
8. Ohio State (11-2)[vBCAC-OHIO(8)]
9. Butler (12-1)[:NIT TIP-OFF(16)]
10. Tennessee (12-2)
11. Oklahoma State (13-1)[:SOUTH PADRE(2x4)]
12. Pittsburgh (12-2)
13. Florida State (12-2)
14. Notre Dame (11-1)
15. Alabama (12-1)[:PARADISE JAM(8)]
16. Maryland (13-2)[:COLLEGE HOOPS(16)]
17. Gonzaga (9-5)
18. Michigan State (13-2)
19. Marquette (12-2)[:CBE(16)]
20. Nevada (11-1)
21. West Virginia (10-1)
22. Air Force (12-1)[@CABLE CAR(s)]
23. Oregon (13-0)
24. Texas A&M (11-2)
25. Clemson (14-0)[@COX(3ds)]

Honorable Mention:

{North Dakota State} (8-5)[@BLUE-GOLD(s)],
Arkansas (10-3)[:ESPNU(8)],
Illinois (12-3)[vCHICAGO(2x4)],
San Diego (9-5)[@GOLDEN BEAR(s)],
California (8-5)[:GREAT ALASKA(8)],
Appalachian State (8-3)[:SAN JUAN(8)],
Hawaii (9-4)[vRAINBOW(8)],
Kansas State (10-3)[:LAS VEGAS-XMAS(2x4)],
Utah State (10-3)[:TOP-O-WORLD(8)],
San Diego State (9-3)[@SHAMROCK I(3ds)],
Drake (9-4)[@SUN BOWL(s)],
Southeast Louisiana (8-5)[@RAIN(3ds)],
Davidson (11-3)[@ASU(s)],
Washington State (12-2)[@J THOMPSON-B(3ds)],
Hofstra (7-4)[v@HOLIDAY-FEST(s)],
Delaware (2-10)[@EXPLORER(3ds)].