06Nov 6 - Ghosts Of '92 (PRESEASON)

Volume XI, No. 1 - 06 Nov 6: PRESEASON - [] Top 25 Ballot

Ghosts Of '92

1992 was the last time we had a repeat national champion (Duke); it was also the only time we had an all-freshman unit start in the title game (Michigan's "Fab Five"); this season in college hoops could well see a repeat of both of those achievements. Last year's "Great Conference Shuffle (GCS II)" resulted in 8 bids for the Mega-Big East while the Missouri Valley (4) and Colonial (2) improved their profiles, putting the squeeze from above and below on the middling teams in the "Super 6" (BCS) conferences; the MVC, at least, isn't going anywhere so that pressure figures to remain again this year. The yearly coaching shuffle seems to be centered in the Big 12 this time -- half of those schools have new leaders at the helm (while one holdover is poised to become the all-time winningest coach in college history). The preseason tournaments are spread thinner this year -- many teams are opting for three-day/four-team round-robin showcases in order to maximize the games while minimizing the competition; the Top-10 matchups are mostly one-off games rather juggernaut finals between teams in a groove. The Big Question for this season is just how much an impact the superb crop of incoming freshmen can make right away.

Florida returns all five starters from last season's team that made a dominant run to the NCAA title. (Even Duke '92 only returned four starters.) Unlike a year ago when they were under the radar, this time around the spotlight and expectations will be huge for the Gators. Plus, they'll have to deal with the distraction of trying to go undefeated. The last two national champions that returned everybody the next year came up short: Arkansas '95 lost in the final to UCLA, and Arizona '98 lost in the regional final to Utah. Repeating is hard. Going undefeated is hard. That said, UF has a wonderfully balanced starting unit with all five starters averaging double-figures. Wish 'em luck. There are no fewer than 30 teams that return all their starters from a year ago. Most notably, Kansas' defending Big 12 champs also figure to be set to hit the ground running. (Florida and Kansas meet Nov 24 in Las Vegas in the finals of the LAS VEGAS THANKSGIVING INVITATIONAL.) Southern Illinois, Air Force and Oklahoma State also return intact. Look for veteran clubs to exploit more talented youngsters still finding their way, at least in the early part of the season.

The NBA has instituted a new rule barring U.S. players from jumping straight from high school into the pros; now you must be at least 19 and at least one year past the graduation year of your senior class before entering the draft. That means that lots of talented players who have been skipping the college ranks are now back in the mix (at least for one year, anyway). Only one player falls in the "too-good-for-college/The Next LeBron James" category: Ohio State's 7-1 cGreg Oden -- (if he's completely healthy after summer wrist surgery, expect him to dominate the college landscape). A few other players fall into "The Next Carmelo Anthony" group, hoping to pull off the one-and-done-national-champ thing: 6-9 fKevin Durant (Texas), 6-11 cSpencer Hawes (Washington) and 6-5 pPaul Harris (Syracuse) may only be around one season. Oden headlines Ohio State's "Thad Five" recruiting class (named after head coach Thad Matta) that could all be starting by season's end. Durant must lead eight newcomers for an entirely different Texas team that lost all five starters from a year ago. Hawes' Washington team lost its stars, but he and six other newcomers inherit an experience supporting backcourt. Harris won't make people forget pGerry McNamara, but he may make Syracuse more effective this year than they were last year behind their injured star. Even more impressive than Ohio State and Texas may be the overall depth of North Carolina's recruiting class: six-deep including three of the Top-10 altogether. Connecticut lost everyone from last year, but has nine talented newcomers on board. Duke lost its stars, but once again adds a crop of blue chips ready to step in. The consensus is that UNC's roster (which already features fTyler Hansbrough and lost only one starter) is by far the most talented in the land. The Tar Heels might even be too deep: that was a huge problem for UNC '94 when freshmen cRasheed Wallace, fJerry Stackhouse and gJeff McInnis took over from holdover national champs cEric Montross, fBrian Reese et al. -- (they were bounced in the second round by fBilly Curley's Boston College team) -- but, thankfully, coach Roy Williams' run-at-all-costs style does provide lots of minutes for lots of players. Can one of those recruiting classes really become "The Next Fab Five"? It's not as easy as it sounds.

The off-season musical chair act of coaching jobs was especially active among big names. One chain begins with the ouster of Quin Snyder at Missouri: enter Mike Anderson (ex-UAB), replaced by Mike Davis (ex-Indiana), replaced by Kelvin Sampson (ex-Oklahoma and its too-many-recruiting-phone-calls scandal), replaced by Jeff Capel (ex-VCU) ... and we're back in the Big 12. (See a pattern?) Despite doing a fine job as interim coach, Andy Kennedy wasn't retained at Cincinnati but wound up at Mississippi; Murray State's Mike Cronin, a Bob Huggins crony, took over at UC. Speaking of Bob Huggins: he's back in the game as head coach of Kansas State (Big 12, again). Welcome back Bobby Cremins (ex-Georgia Tech), who inherits a fine team at College of Charleston. Herb Sendek's fine record at N.C. State wasn't good enough for the faithful and now he's at Arizona State; player legends Sidney Lowe (ex-NBA) and assistant Monte Towe (ex-New Orleans) are now in charge of the Wolfpack. Legendary coaches Eddie Sutton (Oklahoma State) and John Chaney (Temple) left the scene in less than glorious fashion, but remember them for the bigger picture of their careers, not for the unattractive way things ended; son Sean Sutton steps up as official head coach at OSU, while Fran Dunphy (ex-Penn) moves across town to TU. Bob Knight only needs 11 more wins at Texas Tech to surpass Dean Smith's all-time wins mark of 879. (If only it could happen on January 8th against Bob Huggins at Kansas State!) Billy Tubbs (Lamar) has hung up his coaching whistle; same for Dick Bennett (Washington State, replaced by his son Tony Bennett). Louis Orr is out at Seton Hall, replaced by Bobby Gonzalez (ex-Manhattan); Matt Doherty moves to SMU, replaced at Florida Atlantic by former Kansas star Rex Walters; Paul Westphal is out at Pepperdine; Kyle Macy is out at Morehead State; David Henderson is out at Delaware; Ronny Thompson (Ball State) joins his brother John Thompson III (Georgetown) in the coaching ranks.

The preseason tournament landscape this year leaves a lot to be desired. Most of the Top 10 teams are staying away from each other, except for one-off head-to-head meetings. Two new significant events have been added: the ESPNU/OLD SPICE CLASSIC (an 8-team neutral-site bracket) and the CHICAGO CHALLENGE INVITATIONAL (two 4-team round-robin groups meet on-campus before the finals in Chicago). A couple of name changes: the GUARDIANS CLASSIC is now the COLLEGE BASKETBALL EXPERIENCE CLASSIC, and the COACHES VS. CANCER CLASSIC is now the COLLEGE HOOPS CLASSIC. Other than the LAS VEGAS THANKSGIVING INVITATIONAL final (Florida-Kansas) and the NIT SEASON TIP-OFF (North Carolina-Tennessee), there aren't any Top-10 matchups in the offing, anywhere.

COLLEGE HOOPS CLASSIC (Tuesday-Saturday on-campus, Nov 16-17 at New York NY):
- Four showcase regionals for young Texas, enigma Maryland, rebuilding Michigan State and local favorite St. John's.
BCA CLASSIC (Friday-Sunday at Columbus, OH):
- An 8-team bracket featuring host Ohio State, Loyola-Illinois, Kent State and Princeton.
JOHN THOMPSON CHALLENGE (Friday-Sunday, Nov 15 on-campus):
- Three round-robin regionals at Michigan, Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Missouri; then UMich and WI-Milw meet in a pre-set "final".
COLLEGE BASKETBALL EXPERIENCE CLASSIC (Sunday-Tuesday week on-campus, Nov 20-21 at Kansas City MO):
- Four regionals at Duke, Marquette, Texas Tech (plus Akron) and Stanford (plus Air Force and Long Beach State).
COLONIAL CLASSIC (Sunday-Tuesday week, Nov 17-19, 24 on-campus):
- Pittsburgh and Florida State meet in a pre-set final after hosting round-robin showcases featuring Massachusetts and SMU.
NIT SEASON TIP-OFF (Nov 13-14 on-campus, Nov 22, 24 at New York NY):
- Four regionals at North Carolina, Tennessee, Gonzaga and Indiana, plus UNC-Wilmington, Winthrop and Belmont.
CHICAGO CHALLENGE INVITATIONAL (Nov 15-21 on-campus, Nov 24-25 at Chicago IL):
- Illinois, Bradley, Miami(Ohio) and Rutgers highlight two 4-team round-robin groups meeting on campus before determining the final pairings.
TOP OF THE WORLD CLASSIC (Nov 16-19 at Fairbanks AK):
- Utah State "heads" this 8-team bracket.
PARADISE JAM (Nov 17-20 at St. Thomas, VIRGIN ISLANDS):
- Alabama, Xavier, Villanova, Iowa, College of Charleston and VCU highlight a solid 8-team bracket.
HISPANIC COLLEGE FUND CLASSIC (Nov 17-19, Dec 27-29, Jan 6 on-campus):
- LSU and Connecticut host 4-team round-robin showcases before meeting in a pre-set "final".
LAS VEGAS [THANKSGIVING] INVITATIONAL (Nov 18-21 on-campus, Nov 24-25 at Las Vegas NV):
- Florida and Kansas, plus Western Kentucky and Ball State. All pairings are pre-set. [Finals moved from Valley High School to Orleans Hotel Arena.]
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND INVITATIONAL (Nov 19,21 on-campus, Nov 24-25 at South Padre Island TX):
- Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Missouri State, Auburn and Sam Houston State will have some solid matchups as two 4-team round-robin groups meet on campus before determining their final pairings.
MAUI INVITATIONAL (Nov 20-22 at Lahaina HI):
- UCLA, Memphis, Georgia Tech and Kentucky are a pretty good foursome heading this 8-team bracket.
GREAT ALASKA SHOOTOUT (Nov 22-25 at Anchorage AK):
- Hofstra, California, Hawaii and Pacific are the names in an 8-team bracket.
ESPNU/OLD SPICE CLASSIC (Nov 23-26 at Orlando FL):
- Southern Illinois, Virginia Tech, Arkansas, Minnesota, Montana and Marist head a solid 8-team bracket.
ACC-BIG 10 CHALLENGE (Nov 27-29 on-campus):
- One-off matchups are as good as we'll get in the preseason: @NorthCarolina-OhioState, @Wisconsin-FloridaSt, @Duke-Indiana, @BostonCollege-MichiganState, @Illinois-Maryland, @VirginiaTech-Iowa should all be fine.
LAS VEGAS [CHRISTMAS] CLASSIC (Dec 17,19 on-campus, Dec 22-23 at Las Vegas NV):
- Wichita State, USC, Kansas State, and New Mexico form two 4-team round robin groups in on-campus meetings before determining the final pairings.
SAN JUAN SHOOTOUT (Dec 19-21 at Guaynabo, PUERTO RICO):
- Virginia, Utah and Vanderbilt head this 8-team bracket.
RAINBOW CLASSIC (Dec 20-23 at Honolulu HI):
- Creighton, Charlotte, Houston and host Hawaii head this 8-team bracket.

We'll be dancing in Atlanta come March. Y'all come!!!

-- Ron

Key games this week:

Tuesday-Saturday, Thursday week-Friday week:

COLLEGE HOOPS (COACHES VS CANCER) CLASSIC 1st/16s on-campus, @ New York NY
(Tue-Wed @ College Park, MD: @Maryland-Hampton, Vermont-NewOrleans,
 Wed-Thu @ East Lansing, MI: @MichiganSt-Brown, YoungstownSt@CMichigan,
 Thu-Fri @ Austin, TX: @Texas-AlcornSt, ChicagoSt-StBonaventure,
 Fri-Sat @ Jamaica, NY: @StJohns-NFlorida, LoyolaMD-Navy),

Friday:

@Florida-Samford, @Gonzaga-EaWashington,

Friday-Sunday:

BCA CLASSIC 1st/Qtrs @ Columbus OH
(VMI@OhioSt, LoyolaIL-Princeton, {SDState}@KentSt, IUPUI-AlabamaA&M),

Friday-Sunday, Wednesday-week (A/B-Final):

JOHN THOMPSON CHALLENGE RndRob on-campus
(A-@ Ann Arbor MI: @Michigan-CConnecticutSt, Davidson@EMichigan,
 B-@ Milwaukee WI: @WIMilwaukee-Radford, UAB-WashingtonSt,
 C-@ Columbia MO: @Missouri-NCA&T, Stetson-Army),

Saturday:

@Kansas-NoArizona, Hofstra@Charlotte, @TexasTech-SamHoustonSt,

Sunday:

Arizona@Virginia,
MAGGIE DIXON CLASSIC 1Off @ West Point NY
(Pittsburgh-WeMichigan),

Sunday-Wednesday week, Mon-Tue 20-21 Nov:

COLLEGE BASKETBALL EXPERIENCE (GUARDIANS) CLASSIC 1st/16s on-campus, @ Kansas City MO
(Sun-Mon week @ Durham NC: @Duke-Columbia, GeorgiaSo-{UCDavis},
 Mon week-Tue week @ Milwaukee WI: @Marquette-IdahoSt, Detroit-Maine,
 Mon week-Tue week @ Lubbock TX: @TexasTech-GardnerWebb, Akron-ARLittleRock,
 Tue week-Wed week @ Palo Alto CA: AirForce-LongBeachSt, @Stanford-SanJoseSt),

Sunday-Tuesday week (SOUTH), Friday week-Sunday week (NORTH), Fri 24 Nov (Final):

COLONIAL CLASSIC RndRob on-campus
(SOUTH-@ Tallahassee FL: @FloridaSt, SMU, IllinoisSt, McNeeseSt,
 NORTH-@ Pittsburgh PA: @Pittsburgh, Massachusetts, Northeastern, Oakland).

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Top 25 - 06 Nov 6: PRESEASON - [] Column

1. Florida
2. Kansas
3. Louisiana State
4. UCLA
5. Georgetown
6. North Carolina
7. Wisconsin
8. Pittsburgh
9. Ohio State
10. Tennessee
11. Duke
12. Alabama
13. Texas A&M
14. Connecticut
15. Washington
16. Arizona
17. Wichita State
18. Memphis
19. Gonzaga
20. Southern Illinois
21. Creighton
22. San Diego State
23. Nevada
24. Xavier
25. George Mason

Worth keeping an eye on:
- Texas, Syracuse, College of Charleston, Hofstra, Oregon, Oklahoma State, Oral Roberts, Winthrop.