08 Feb18 - Desperation Trail

Volume XII, No. 16 - 08 Feb 18 - [] Top 25 Ballot

Desperation Trail

Memphis faced its toughest week in conference play and escaped with its undefeated season still intact ... barely. After handling Houston at home, @68-59, (as the jump-shooting Cougars only attempted two free throws), the Tigers travelled to UAB on Saturday for the toughest road game on their schedule. The Blazers played inspired ball and led @77-70 with the ball and less than three minutes to go, but they couldn't close the deal. It was a nervous finish for both teams as UM's gDerrick Rose(6p3a;2/13fg) was terrible down the stretch, choking the game away at every turn with short-armed shots and turnovers; but Player of the Year candidate tChris Douglas-Roberts(32p7r) saved the day just in time with a game-winning three-point-play to snatch a 79-@78 victory from seeming defeat. gAntonio Anderson added 27p4a for Memphis; UAB shot 20-for-22 on free throws, but it still wasn't quite good enough as bRobert Vaden(27p5r) missed a huge one in the final minute.

The road out in the first half of conference play is uncharted, so you know you have to put out your best effort every time in order to handle whatever challenge may come along. The road back in the second half takes you on Desperation Trail, which has its own separate challenge. It's filled with teams you've already beaten, teams going nowhere whose season now boils down to the "One Big Game" against you for pride, young teams who finally "get it" and put together some form they haven't shown so far, and solid teams who've made corrections and are poised to peak for the "Final 10 Games" that the NCAA Selection Committee emphasizes when deciding who gets a bid.

The Trail caught some big-name teams this past week: Duke fell on the road at Wake Forest, 73-@86, as freshmen gJeff Teague(26p1a) and cJames Johnson(24p16r7to) led the way. [Wake is 14-1 at home this season (including a rout of BYU) and 16-8 overall while trying to move forward in the aftermath of coach Skip Prosser's death. Coach Dino Gaudio has done as good a job as you could ask in a tough situation: they're fifth in the ACC at 6-5 and could even snag an NCAA bid if they can finish this strong the rest of the way.] Georgetown escaped @55-53 against Villanova (thanks to a terrible touch foul call with less than :01 left in regulation), but later fell 70-@77 to perennial bubble team Syracuse. [The Hoyas have fallen back into a first-place tie with Louisville atop the Big East at 10-3 and LVILLE beat them the first time out. They won't lose out on the cushy Washington, DC first-/second-round Pod in the NCAAs, but they could wind up getting shipped away from the Charlotte Regional if they're not careful.] Stanford salvaged a road split with a 67-@66 win at Arizona (overcoming 31p6a5r;16/16ft from GC pJerryd Bayless) after losing earlier 68-@72(OT) at Arizona State (despite getting 30p6r from fBrook Lopez). [The margin between fourth and ninth in the Pac-10 isn't much, so AZST is one of those DT teams to be feared the most -- they need every win they can steal.] Pat Knight's first win was a big one as Texas Tech knocked off Kansas State @84-75, keeping the Wildcats from assuming first place in the Big 12. Sean Sutton finally got his first road win in Big 12 play as Oklahoma State surprised Texas A&M 59-@54. And Southern Illinois salvaged something from its miserable regular season with a @65-62 win over Drake. [The Drake may have lost its first conference game, but Keno Davis' Bulldogs clinched their first Missouri Valley Conference title in 37 years later on with a 65-@55 win over Northern Iowa. "Can you say 'National Coach of the Year'? I knew you could!"]

Barely surviving the upset bug were North Carolina (a 75-@74 winner at Virginia despite 27p7a6r from LB pSean Singletary), Tennessee (a 74-@71 winner at Georgia despite 23p8a9r from tSundiata Gaines), Xavier (a 62-@60 winner at Charlotte despite 31p0a8r from tLeemire Goldwire), and Connecticut (a 74-@73(OT) winner at South Florida on gCraig Austrie's game-winner despite 26p15t6b from cKentrell Gransberry). [Don't read too much into any of those close games, win or lose. This time of year produces one-off results that don't particularly reflect the overall strength/weakness of the major teams.]

More important were the "fair fight" clashes that meant as much to both teams coming in. Texas re-inserted itself in the conversation for the Big 12 regular season title with a @72-69 win over Kansas and kept it going with a 82-@77 road win at Baylor. UTx, KU and KANSST all have two losses (three better than the rest of the pack). [Nothing will unseat Kansas and Kansas State from first-/second-round Pods in Omaha, but there's the outside chance for Texas to sweep the Big 12 regular season and tournament and get seeded high enough to stay home for the Houston Regional.] UCLA paid back its earlier home loss to USC with a 56-@46 win on the road to stay just ahead of Stanford in the Pac-10 race. [The Bruins should be fine, but the Trojans may still have some work to do to secure a slot in the first-/second-round Anaheim Pod.] Tennessee thumped Arkansas @93-71 behind 32p4a from gJaJuan Smith; Arkansas also fell 74-@80 at Mississippi State, yielding second place in the SEC to the Bulldogs. Connecticut beat Notre Dame @84-73 as part of its 9-game win streak (thanks to 26p9a from pA.J. Price, despite 32p16r from cLuke Harangody) -- [the Huskies are so much a better team now that they don't rely on three-pointers from suspended gJerome Dyson.]

Michigan State lost at Purdue, 54-@60, and was blown out by Indiana, 61-@80. [The Spartans are out of contention now for the Big 10 regular season title, and they can't expect to be seeded high enough to be able to stay home for the Detroit Regional.] Indiana had a tough week on the court, including a buzzer-beater home loss to Wisconsin, @66-68. New allegations of NCAA violations have surfaced surrounding coach Kelvin Sampson, serious enough that he may not even survive the week. If they can somehow keep their focus, though, they actually have a showdown coming Tuesday with arch- in-state rival Purdue with first place in the Big 10 within reach.

Below the BCS, BYU repaid UNLV in kind with a @74-48 drubbing to open a gap in its lead in the Mountain West. (The Cougars' road loss at Wake Forest doesn't look so bad anymore, and their earlier neutral-site win over Louisville looks good again. Welcome back to the rankings, men!) Kent State beat Ohio University @72-62 to maintain its lead in the MAC. IUPUI edged first place Oral Roberts, @69-66, but still remains one game back in the Summit. Belmont beat East Tennessee State 87-@75 to hold onto the lead in the Atlantic Sun.

Rhode Island gets to test its mettle this week with three big home games: against Xavier (Monday), Massachusetts (Thursday), and St. Joseph's (Sunday). Western Kentucky is on top looking down at South Alabama the second time around as the top two teams in the Sun Belt meet on Thursday.

I don't have it rated #1 vs. #2 as the national polls do, but this Saturday's Memphis vs. Tennessee has come to fruition with everything on the line you could hope for. They'll both get the Pods that they want regardless (Little Rock for MEMPH; Birmingham for UTn) and the winner will be the consensus #1 team in next week's poll, for sure. This is probably the most hyped college basketball game in the history of the state of Tennessee -- the ultimate "State Title" game for this season (nevermind Vanderbilt). Credit John Calipari and Bruce Pearl for bringing both programs to these heights, and creating a fever in the state for college hoops like no other time. Although they shouldn't lack for motivation in this one, the one knock on the Volunteers has been that they aren't the same dominant team on the road as they are when playing in front of their home crowd. Will Memphis get the wake-up call after almost blowing it against UAB? This game's got it all: GC (pDerrick Rose) vs. LB (gChris Lofton), a No.1 seed and No.1 ranking up for grabs, a coaching matchup that can produce fireworks. What's not to love? Don't miss it!

The BRACKETBUSTERS event has more clout this year now that there are three levels of bids up for grabs at the end of the season: Gold(NCAA), Silver(NIT) and Bronze(CBI). "Boosting the RPI rating" of teams from perennial 1BC conference never made all that much sense before. Now, though, there really will be some meaningful jockeying for position #113 for the bubble teams trying to get the last invite to the new COLLEGE BASKETBALL INVITATIONAL tournament. The BRACKETBUSTER people have done a pretty good job of matching stronger visiting teams against weaker host teams, which should avoid blowouts as much as can be pre-planned. This year's marquee matchup, Drake at Butler, is on par with the last two seasons (George Mason v UNC-Wilmington in 2006 and Butler v Southern Illinois in 2007), both of which featured a pair of teams that made it through to the NCAA Sweet 16. It remains to be seen whether that can happen again this year or whether the GC era will spell the end of that trend. Davidson should have no trouble even on the road at Winthrop. Kent State won't be a match for home-standing St. Mary's. VCU (at Akron) and George Mason (at Ohio University) face a tough challenge as standard-bearers for the declining Colonial. The Metro Atlantic got a tough draw, with four of its five marquee teams on the road -- but look for "Stanford Jr." aka Rider (with its own NBA-ready brother combo, cJason Thompson and tRyan Thompson) against Cal State-Northridge), Niagara (with the nation's leading scorer, gunner bCharron Fisher) against Appalachian State, and Stanford-killer Siena against WAC-leader Boise State to grab some headlines. Nevada, led by LB bMarcelus Kemp, should have too much firepower even for home-standing Southern Illinois.

-- Ron

Key games this week:

Monday:

@Louisville-Syracuse, @Texas-TexasA&M(TX), Xavier-@RhodeIsland, Gonzaga-@SanDiego, @LoyolaMD-Rider,

Tuesday:

Purdue-@Indiana(IN), @Oklahoma-Baylor, @Davidson-UNCGreensboro(NC), @MiamiOH-Akron(OH),

Wednesday:

Duke-@MiamiFL, @BYU-Utah(UT), MississippiSt-@Mississippi(MS), @UAB-Houston, UCSantaBarbara-@Pacific(CA), @Richmond-Charlotte, MDBaltimoreCo-@Albany,

Thursday:

@WashingtonSt-ArizonaSt, @Xavier-Duquesne, @NotreDame-Pittsburgh, @USC-Oregon, @Washington-Arizona, @RhodeIsland-Masssachusetts, @WeKentucky-SAlabama, @StephenFAustin-SamHoustonSt(TX), IUPUI-@Oakland, @GardnerWebb-ETennesseeSt,

Friday-Sunday:

BRACKETBUSTERS on-campus

(Fri:

@Winthrop-Davidson, @UtahSt-UCSantaBarbara,

Sat:

@Butler-Drake, @StMarys-KentSt, @Oral Roberts-Creighton, @BoiseSt-Siena, @CalStNorthridge-Rider, @CalStFullerton-PortlandSt, @AustinPeay-GeorgiaSo, @ClevelandSt-Marist, @Akron-VCU, @OhioU-GeoMason, @AppalachianSt-Niagara, @UNCWilmington-Vermont, @Pacific-SanJoseSt, @NoArizona-WichitaSt, @MurraySt-IndianaSt,

@NewMexicoSt-LongBeachSt, @SoIllinois-Nevada, @OldDominion-Bucknell, @William&Mary-LoyolaIL, @LoyolaMD-UCDavis, @ETennesseeSt-TennesseeTech, @EaKentucky-BallSt, @Bradley-WIMilwaukee, @Valparaiso-MiamiOH, @WIGreenBay-WeMichigan, @NoIowa-ILChicago, @HolyCross-Northeastern,

@UCIrvine-Idaho, @EaMichigan-SEMissouriSt, @MissouriSt-CMichigan, @FresnoSt-CalPolySLO, @JamesMadison-MoreheadSt, @Manhattan-SUNYB,

@Toledo-Delaware, @Elon-TNMartin, @Towson-HighPoint, @Iona-Hofstra, @Detroit-BowlingGreen, @Buffalo-YoungstownSt, @Drexel-Fairfield, @LouisianaTech-Samford, @UCRiverside-Hawaii, @Canisius-Albany, @StPeters-BostonU, @EaIllinois-Evansville, @JacksonvilleSt-GeorgiaSt,

Sun:

@IllinoisSt-WrightSt,
@NoIllinois-TennesseeSt: cancelled due to on-campus shootings),

Saturday:

@Memphis-Tennessee(TN), @UCLA-Oregon, Kansas-@OklahomaSt, @WashingtonSt-Arizona, @Texas-Oklahoma, Connecticut-@Villanova, KansasSt-@Baylor, Wisconsin-@OhioSt, BYU-@SanDiegoSt, @Kentucky-Arkansas, @Washington-ArizonaSt, @MiamiFL-Maryland, @Utah-NewMexico, @RobertMorris-Wagner, @Quinnipiac-Sacred Heart(CT), @Cornell-Brown,

Sunday:

@NCarolina-WakeForest, Louisville-@Pittsburgh, @Stanford-California(CA), Xavier-@Dayton(OH), @NotreDame-Syracuse, @RhodeIsland-StJosephs.

---

Top 25 - 08 Feb 18 - [] Column

1. Memphis (25-0)
2. UCLA (21-3)
3. Kansas (23-2)
4. Duke (21-2)
5. North Carolina (24-2)
6. Tennessee (22-2)
7. Louisville (20-6)
8. Georgetown (20-4)
9. Stanford (21-4)
10. Washington State (20-5)
11. Texas (20-4)
12. Xavier (21-4)
13. Connecticut (20-5)
14. Kansas State (16-6)
15. Purdue (21-5)
16. Wisconsin (21-4)
17. Indiana (20-4)
18. Marquette (16-6)
19. Notre Dame (18-5)
20. Butler (23-2)
21. Vanderbilt (22-4)
22. BYU (20-5)
23. St. Mary's (20-3)
24. Drake (20-2)
25. Mississippi State (17-7)

Honorable Mention:

Wake Forest (16-8), Syracuse (17-9), Arizona State (15-8), Texas Tech (12-11), Oklahoma State (13-12), Southern Illinois (14-12).