12 Mar 5 - Second Responders

Volume XVI, No. 18 - 12 Mar 5 : PRETOURNAMENT - [] FINAL TOP 25 BALLOT

Second Responders

North Carolina made no mistake about it the second time around against Duke in the ACC title showdown. The Tar Heels bolted to a 22-5 lead right away and withstood every Blue Devil run on the way to an emphatic 88-@70 win, thanks to a 42-22 rebounding edge, holding DU to a modest 6-for-21 on three-pointers, and getting bonus offense from pKendall Marshall(20p10a) to go along with senior cTyler Zeller's usual 19p10r.
     Meanwhile, in Ann Arbor, Michigan State was so dominant early on -- leading 26-11 -- that Ohio State was looking likely to be demoted to #3-seed territory; but bWilliam Buford(25p1a) single-handedly brought the Buckeyes back, sinking the game-winner in a thrilling 72-@70 victory. (The Spartans had opened the door to sharing the BIG 10 title earlier in the week when they fell, 55-@70, at Indiana as freshman Cody Zeller(18p) had plenty of help to overcome tDraymond Green's 29p8r effort. Michigan kept pace with two road wins to make it a three-way tie for the league title.)
     Memphis routed Central Florida, @84-55 (shooting 59 percent from the floor) and cruised past host Tulsa, 78-@66 (behind 30p from Will Barton), ultimately taking the CONFERENCE USA title by two games. UNLV blinked, falling 59-@66 at Colorado State, which left New Mexico and San Diego State to share the MOUNTAIN WEST title between them. Washington fell, 69-@75, at UCLA, opening the door for California; but the Golden Bears couldn't handle rival Stanford, losing 70-@75; so UW claimed the PAC-12 title outright. Temple escaped @90-88(OT) over Massachusetts as 26p6a from pKhalif Wyatt negated 26p11r from 5-9 xChaz Williams, and cruised past host Fordham to take the ATLANTIC 10 title.
     Harvard survived a shaky final week, winning 77-@70(OT) at Columbia and 67-@63 at Cornell, to claim its share of the IVY title; but Penn kept pace (including a @68-47 rout of third-place Yale) to give itself a chance to earn a split in Tuesday night's grudge match at Princeton. A Quaker win means the Crimson will face a one-game playoff (likely Saturday) for the second straight year to claim the automatic NCAA bid. (The IVY teams have made a fine showing in the NCAAs recently and Harvard has certain made national noise this year, but the TV talking heads seem to agree that the Crimson won't get an at-large bid if they lose -- that's just BCS bias; Harvard is quite capable of winning one or even two rounds in the tournament.)
     Way down on the undercard -- after getting routed at Weber State in the first half of league play, Montana won 11 straight games to turn the rematch into a massive showdown, which it won @66-51 (behind 23p4a from gWill Cherry) to claim the BIG SKY regular season title and earn the right to host the conference tournament to boot. (In desperation, WSU shot 3-for-26 on three-pointers as gDamian Lillard only had 19p[2/11 3s].) Savannah State clinched the MEAC with two comfortable wins.

Kentucky could hardly be more impressive. cAnthony Davis(22p12r6b) even ran a respectable fast break -- (he used to be a 6-3 guard before a 7-inch growth spurt in one year) -- as the Wildcats dominated Florida on the road, 74-@59. KU wound up as the only team in the country to go undefeated in conference [16-0], winning the SEC title by a whopping SIX-GAME GAP. (Can't remember a BCS team that so outclassed its league.)
     Failing to deliver unbeaten runs (after having already clinched their regular season titles): Long Beach State dropped its final BIG WEST game at second-place Cal State-Fullerton, 74-@77, as gD.J. Seeley had 27p. Texas-Arlington fell, 88-@97, at preseason favorite Texas-San Antonio in its SOUTHLAND finale. Mississippi Valley State took the night off, dropping an embarrassing 67-@78 loss at 9-21/6-12 Alcorn State (but still won the SWAC by FOUR GAMES). Utah Valley dropped its final GREAT WEST game, 56-@57 at the buzzer to second-place {North Dakota}.

Switching to a single division should have helped the old SEC "West" teams, but instead all four first-round byes went to SEC "East" teams anyway -- Vanderbilt and Florida earned byes that would have gone to Alabama and Mississippi State last year. (Hats off to surprising Tennessee, which earned the #2 overall seed [playing the tougher SEC "East" schedule no less] -- UTn went 3-3 against UK/Fla/Vandy [including a sweep of the Gators] in what was a complete rebuild for new coach Cuonzo Martin after Bruce Pearl's dismissal.)
     Princeton ran its Personal Whipping Boy streak to 53 straight home wins vs Brown, @81-47 (just three behind @North Carolina-Clemson).

In the first wave of conference tournaments, it was mostly good news for teams living in Bubblonia.
     Illinois State tripped up Wichita State 65-64 in the semis and took Creighton to OT in the MISSOURI VALLEY final; but CU saved the day with an 83-79(OT) win behind 33p6r from xDoug McDermott.
     Murray State closed 11-2 to come back to win on gJewuan Long's game-winning drive to secure the OHIO VALLEY automatic bid, 54-@52, at Tennessee State. (MSU is now "virtually undefeated", having gone 2-1 against the only team to beat it -- Kentucky and Syracuse can't even claim that. In fact, Kentucky can't even claim a "morally undefeated" season because giving it a "moral victory" for its 72-@73 loss at Indiana would go hand-in-hand with a "moral loss" to North Carolina, @73-72 in Lexington.)
     Gonzaga trounced BYU, 77-58, making the WEST COAST final with St. Mary's about conference pride and seeding as both finalists are comfortably in the NCAA field already -- the Cougars' best argument had been a home win over the 'Zags; but that's been erased by this rout loss and they're out.
     Host Mercer couldn't make to the ATLANTIC SUN final to challenge Belmont for the automatic bid, falling in the semis Florida Gulf Coast -- the BU Bruins took care of business in the final, 83-69.

Butler's magical NCAA run officially ended with a blowout loss, 46-@65 to [1]Valparaiso in the HORIZON semifinals; but VCU looks every bit like it could repeat last year's improbable ride -- the Rams bolted out to a 22-0 start in the first 7 minutes of their COLONIAL semifinal against [3]George Mason.
     The COLONIAL tourney is the closest thing to the old ACC vibe -- multiple deserving teams but possibly only one bid available because of a poor preseason performance. The top 4 (Drexel, VCU, George Mason and Old Dominion) all delivered, coming through to the semis (and Georgia State took George Mason to the wire). The PAC-12 will be in much the same boat this week as they played themselves into 1BC-land with terrible preseason results. Memphis has come on strong enough at the end of the season to turn the C-USA tournament into an Anti-Spoiler situation -- they're in no matter what.

TiTo UNC-Asheville is the Real McCoy, claiming the BIG SOUTH crown in easy fashion dominating the tourney (including @80-64 over [6b]VMI in the final) like it did the regular season (a FOUR-GAME GAP). A senior-led squad with one of the best backcourts anywhere (pMatt Dickey and pJ.P. Primm) -- they're good enough to pull off a 14/3 upset; but probably won't be seeded high enough to avoid an Elite Eight opponent.
     Unfortunatley, we're guaranteed at least of couple of Jack Dawson impostors. Middle Tennessee (SUN BELT+2) blew it, losing 61-@64 to [9]@Arkansas State right away in the quarterfinals in Hot Springs. Iona (METRO ATLANTIC+2) went belly-up semis to preseason favorite [3b]Fairfield, 75-85. So you'll have to check out the NIT to catch the likes of fLaRon Dendy and pScott Machado. Bummer.

With 68 teams in the NCAA field now, no one who has truly had a solid season gets left out; so the whining about the Bubble is much less interesting to me. VCU proved last year just how well any team can perform if given the chance (but that was never the issue).
     Here are the locks (and nots) for the 37 at-large bids among the BCS and MM leagues:

• SEC(2/3) - Kentucky + (lock: Vanderbilt, Florida; not: Alabama, Mississippi State, Tennessee)
• BIG EAST(5/4) - Syracuse + (lock: Marquette, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Louisville, Cincinnati; not: Connecticut, West Virginia, South Florida, Seton Hall)
• BIG 10(5/1) - Michigan State/Ohio State/Michigan + (lock: Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue; not: Northwestern)
• ACC(3/2) - North Carolina + (lock: Duke, Florida State, Virginia; not: Miami[Florida], N.C. State)
• BIG 12(4/1) - Kansas + (lock: Missouri, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State; not: Texas)
• MVC(1/0) - [Creighton] + (lock: Wichita State; not: NONE; out: Illinois State)
• MWC(2/0) - New Mexico/San Diego State + (lock: UNLV)
• WCC(1/0) - St. Mary's + (lock: Gonzaga; not: NONE; out: BYU)
• A-10(1/1) - Temple + (lock: St. Louis; not: Xavier)
• C-USA(1/0) - Memphis + (lock: NONE; not: Southern Mississippi/Central Florida/Marshall)
• IVY(1/0) - Harvard + (lock: NONE; not: Penn)
• PAC-12(0/2) - (lock: NONE; not: Washington + California/Oregon)
• COLONIAL(0/2) - (lock: NONE; not: Drexel + VCU; out: George Mason)
• HORIZON(0/1) - (lock: NONE; not: Valparaiso/Detroit; out: Cleveland State)

That's 26 lock bids, leaving 11 soft bids up for grabs among 17 contenders who could still play themselves in or out of a bid. Memphis and Harvard are the only true Anti-Spoilers in the bunch; but a no-name Party Crasher winning the tourney in a multi-bid league can always ruin things as well.

UNC's road rout is the most decisive result of the season between the Elite Eight contenders (and throws Duke's earlier buzzer-beater win in Chapel Hill out the window -- it's now the Blue Devils who have the only two blowout losses [63-@85 at OSO] among them). UNC/Duke, OhioSt/MichSt and Kansas/Missouri are each all 1-1 head-to-head -- do you trust the initial results or the second responses? (Coach Roy Williams touted the character of the Tar Heels in bouncing back from their disappointing loss the first time around -- that's great, but the NCAA tourney is one-and-done; there's no second chance do-over.) Each rival needs the other one to make their conference tournament final so a win from the rubber match will have the weight to secure them a #1-seed -- going 2-1 would outweigh even a 1-1 TiTo champ without the rubber match win in my book.

We're on full Jack Dawson Alert to see who will represent the SUN BELT and MAAC now that Middle Tennessee and Iona are gone. It's just a JD Watch for gap-winners in the HORIZON (Valparaiso), BIG WEST (where Long Beach State must mind Cal State-Fullerton), SUMMIT (Oral Roberts), SOUTHLAND (Texas-Arlington), SOUTHERN (Davidson), WAC (Nevada), SWAC (Mississippi Valley State) and for the automatic CIT bid for the GREAT WEST (where Utah Valley can't look past {North Dakota}).

-- Ron

P.S. Look for the official Hoops Contest invite Sunday overnight!!! (And don't forget the new deadline is TUESDAY 6:30P because of the FIRST FOUR games.)

Key games this week:

Monday:

WCC TOURNAMENT Final @ Las Vegas NV /ORLEANS/
- ([1]StMarys-[2]Gonzaga),
COLONIAL TOURNAMENT Final @ Richmond VA /VCU/
- ([1]Drexel-@[2]VCU),
MAAC TOURNAMENT Final @ Springfield MA
- ([2]LoyolaMD-[3b]Fairfield),
SOCON TOURNAMENT Final @ Asheville NC
- ([1S]@Davidson-[3aN]@WeCarolina(NC)),

Monday-Tuesday:

SUN BELT TOURNAMENT Semis,Final @ Hot Springs AR
- ([[3]Denver-[7]WeKentucky, [5]NTexas-[9]@ArkansasSt),
SUMMIT TOURNAMENT Semis,Final @ Sioux Falls SD
- ([1]Oral Roberts-[4a]WeIllinois, [2]@SDState-[6]SoUtah),

Monday, Wednesday-Saturday:

MAC TOURNAMENT on-campus, @ Cleveland OH
- (Thu @CleveOH 3rd/Qtrs: [3]@OhioU, [4]@KentSt;
   Fri @CleveOH 4th/Semis: [1]@Akron, [2]Buffalo),

Tuesday:

@Princeton-Penn,
HORIZON TOURNAMENT Final on-campus
- (@[1]Valparaiso-[3a]Detroit),

Tuesday-Wednesday:

BIG SKY TOURNAMENT Semis,Final @ #1-seed[Montana/Missoula MT]
- (@[1]Montana-[4]EaWashington, [2]WeberSt-[3]PortlandSt),

Tuesday-Saturday:

BIG EAST TOURNAMENT @ New York, NY /MSG/
- (Tue 1st/32s:  [9a]Connecticut-[16]DePaul, [9b]@SetonHall-[15]Providence, [11a]Rutgers-[13b]Villanova, @[11b]StJohns-[13a]Pittsburgh;
   Wed 2nd/16s:  [4b]Georgetown-(@[11b]StJohns), [4c]SFlorida-([11a]Rutgers), [7]Louisville-([9b]@SetonHall, [8]WVirginia-([9a]Connecticut);
   Thus 3rd/Qtrs: [1]@Syracuse-([8]WVirginia), [2]Marquette-([7]Louisville), [3]NotreDame-([4c]SFlorida), [4a]Cincinnati-([4b]Georgetown)),
MEAC TOURNAMENT @ Winston-Salem NC
- (Wed 2nd/Qtrs: [1]SavannahSt, [2]NorfolkSt;
   Thu 2nd/Qtrs: [3]DelawareSt),

Tuesday, Friday-Sunday:

A-10 TOURNAMENT on-campus, @ Atlantic City NJ
- (Tue on-campus 1st/16s:  @[5a]StJosephs-[11b]Charlotte, @[5b]Dayton-[11a]GeoWashington, @[5c]LaSalle-[9b]Richmond, @[5d]Massachusetts-[9a]Duquesne;
   Thu @AtlCtyNJ 2nd/Qtrs: [1]Temple-([5d]Massachusetts), [2]StLouis-([5c]LaSalle), [3a]Xavier-([5b]Dayton), [3b]StBonaventure-([5a]StJosephs)),

Wednesday:

PATRIOT TOURNAMENT Final on-campus
- (@[1]Bucknell-[2]Lehigh(PA)),
NEC TOURNAMENT Final on-campus
- (@[1]LongIsland-[3]RobertMorris),

Wednesday-Thursday, Saturday:

SOUTHLAND TOURNAMENT @ Katy TX
- ([1]@TXArlington, [2]@StephenFAustin, [3]@Lamar, [4a]McNeeseSt-[4b]@TXSanAntonio),

Wednesday-Saturday:

BIG 12 TOURNAMENT @ Kansas City MO
- (Wed 1st/16s:  [7]OklahomaSt-[10]TexasTech, [8]Oklahoma-[9]TexasA&M;
   Thu 2nd/Qtrs: [1]@Kansas-([8]Oklahoma), [2]@Missouri-([7]OklahomaSt), [3a]IowaSt-([6]Texas, [3b]Baylor-[5]@KansasSt),
C-USA TOURNAMENT @ Memphis TN /Memphis/
- (Wed 1st/16s:  [5a]UAB-[12]Tulane, [5b]Marshall-[11]SMU, [7]Rice-[10]ECarolina, [8a]UTEP-[8b]Houston(TX);
   Thu 2nd/Qtrs: @[1]Memphis-([8a]UTEP), [2]SoMississippi-([7]Rice), [3a]Tulsa-([5b]Marshall), [3b]CFlorida-([5a]UAB)),
PAC-12 TOURNAMENT @ Los Angeles CA /STAPLES/
- (Wed 1st/16s:  [5a]@UCLA-[12]@USC(LosAngelesCA), [5b]Colorado-[11]Utah, [7]Stanford-[10]ArizonaSt, [8a]WashingtonSt-[8b]OregonSt;    Thu 2nd/Qtrs: [1]Washington-([8a]WashingtonSt), [2a]California-([7]Stanford), [2b]Oregon-([5b]Colorado), [4]Arizona-([5a]@UCLA)),
SWAC TOURNAMENT @ Garland TX
- ([1]MSValleySt),

Thursday-Saturday:

MWC TOURNAMENT @ Las Vegas NV /UNLV/
- ([1a]SanDiegoSt-[7b]BoiseSt, [1b]NewMexico-[7a]AirForce, @[3]UNLV-[6]Wyoming, [4]ColoradoSt-[5]TCU)),
BIG WEST TOURNAMENT @ Anaheim CA
- ([1]@LongBeachSt, [2a]@CalStFullerton),
WAC TOURNAMENT @ Las Vegas NV /ORLEANS/
- ([1]@Nevada, [2]NewMexicoSt, [3]Idaho),
GREAT WEST TOURNAMENT @ Chicago IL /Chicago St/
- ([1]UTValley),

Thursday-Sunday:

SEC TOURNAMENT @ New Orleans LA /NEW ORLEANS/
- (Thu 1st/16s:  [5]Alabama-[12]SCarolina, [6a]MississippiSt-[10b]Georgia, [6b]Mississippi-[10a]Auburn, [8]@LSU-[9]Arkansas;
   Fri 2nd/Qtrs: [1]@Kentucky-([8]@LSU), [2a]Tennessee-([6b]Mississippi), [2b]Vanderbilt-([6a]MississippiSt), [2c]Florida-([5]Alabama)),
ACC TOURNAMENT @ Atlanta GA /PHILIPS/

Thursday 1st/16s

• (12N): [8]Maryland v [9a]Wake Forest
•  (2P): [4b]NC State v [9d]Boston Col
•  (7P): [7]Clemson v [9b]Virginia Tech
•  (9P): [4c]Miami-FL @ [9c]Georgia Tech

Friday 2nd/Qtrs

• (12N): [1]N Carolina v ([8]Maryland)
•  (2P): [4a]Virginia v ([4b]NCState)
•  (7P): [2]Duke v ([7]Clemson)
•  (9P): [3]Florida St v ([4c]Miami-FL)

Saturday Semis

•  (1P): ([1]NCarolina) v ([4a]Virginia)
•  (3P): ([2]Duke) v ([3]FloridaSt)

Sunday Final

•  (1P): ([1]NCarolina) v ([2]Duke)

BIG 10 TOURNAMENT @ Indianapolis IN /CONSECO/
- (Thu 1st/16s:  [5]@Indiana-[11b]PennSt, [6]@Purdue-[11a]Nebraska, [7a]Northwestern-[9b]Minnesota, [7b]Iowa-[9a]Illinois;
   Fri 2nd/Qtrs: [1a]MichiganSt-([7b]Iowa), [1b]Michigan-([7a]Northwestern), [1c]OhioSt-([6]@Purdue), [4]Wisconsin-([5]@Indiana)),

Saturday:

IVY PLAYOFF [if necessary] @ ?TBD?
- ([1a]Harvard-[1b]Penn),
AMERICA EAST TOURNAMENT Final on-campus
- (@[1]StonyBrook-[2]Vermont),

Sunday:

(NCAA TOURNAMENT BRACKET SELECTION),
(NIT BRACKET SELECTION),
(CBI BRACKET SELECTION),
(CIT BRACKET SELECTION).

---

FINAL TOP 25 - 12 Mar 5: PRETOURNAMENT - [] Column

1. Kentucky (30-1) SECu+6
2. Syracuse (30-1) BIG E+3
3. North Carolina (27-4) ACC
4. Ohio State triBIG 10
5. Duke (25-6)
6. Michigan State (23-7) triBIG 10
7. Kansas (25-5) BIG 12+2
8. Missouri (27-4)
9. Indiana (24-7)
10. Michigan (22-8) triBIG 10
11. Marquette (25-6)
12. Wisconsin (23-8)
13. Georgetown (21-7)
14. Vanderbilt (22-9)
15. Wichita State (26-5) MVC+2
16. UNLV (23-7)
17. Florida (22-9)
18. Murray State (26-1) OVC+4 [@OVCt]
19. Creighton (27-5) [MVCt]
20. Baylor (24-6)
21. St. Mary's (24-7) WCC
22. Gonzaga (25-5)
23. Drexel (27-5) COLON
24. VCU (27-6)
25. Memphis (23-8) C-USA+2

Honorable Mention:

Illinois State (20-13), Colorado State (19-10), Cincinnati (22-9), Iowa State (22-9), South Florida (18-12), Tennessee (18-13), Belmont (26-7) A-SUN+3 [A-SUNt], Fairfield (19-13), Arkansas State (13-19), Montana (21-6) SKY, UNC-Asheville (20-9) BIG S+4 [BIG St].