13 Nov 4 - Mega-Shift (PRESEASON)

Volume XVIII, No. 1 - 13 Nov 4 : PRESEASON - [] Top 25 Ballot

Mega-Shift

Hey, all. I'm working on adjusting my priorities. One of the consequences is that I may not be able to continue writing college basketball columns on a weekly basis for the entire season. So, rather than send out columns by e-mail at the start of the season as usual (only to wind up curtailing or suspending them at some later point), I have decided not to send out the columns by e-mail at all for the foreseeable future. You can still check the website (www.ronmcbay.us/HLS/) or the commercial blog here periodically to see if I have issued a new column. -- Ron

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Last year, a veteran Louisville squad improved on a 2012 Final Four appearance to sweep the BIG EAST as TiTo champion and win the NCAAs to boot. Gonzaga took the terms "Mid-Major" and "Anti-Spoiler" to unprecedented heights in the regular season by garnering a No.1 national ranking (elsewhere) and a No.1 seed for the NCAA tournament. Wichita State was the surprise of the postseason, making the Final Four (as an at-large Mid-Major, no less). Despite losing some key players, the Cardinals return enough of a nucleus to make another run at the Final Four. Gonzaga has probably lost too much to expect a season anywhere near as heady this time around. Wichita State can't expect a repeat of last year's magical run ... can they? (Then again, who expected that Butler could have followed up 2010's National Runner-Up finish with a duplicate ending in 2011?)

Year Three of the multi-year Great Conference Migration may well be the most tumultuous yet. Overwhelmingly, the churn in conference membership by schools has been driven by football programs' seeking to improve their chances of getting a piece of big money Bowl Championship Series bowls. This time, the biggest change was driven by basketball programs. "The Catholic 7" (i.e., DePaul, Georgetown, Marquette, Providence, St. John's, Seton Hall and Villanova) seceded from the BIG EAST (and took the name with them) to form a league whose decisions would be led by the basketball programs rather than football. The leftover BIG EAST teams (Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Rutgers and South Florida) regrouped to form the new AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE. Meanwhile, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh and Syracuse had already made the move to join the ACC (now 15-members strong). With Memphis(ex-CONFERENCE USA) and Temple(ex-ATLANTIC 10) jumping to the new AMERICAN while Butler(ex-ATLANTIC 10), Creighton(ex-MISSOURI VALLEY) and Xavier(ex-ATLANTIC 10) were jumping to the seceded BIG EAST, a major storyline this year will be which one proves to be the stronger basketball league. Down to 10 members, it's no longer appropriate to call it the "Mega-BIG EAST" now. In fact, if anything, we now have the "Mega-ACC"! And with the BIG EAST now a basketball-only league, it's now inexact to continue to use the term "BCS" to refer to the "High Major" conferences, so I'll substitute the term "B-Major" (i.e., "Basketball-Major") going forward. (Technically, let's define "B-Major" status as being a league that garners 3+ NCAA bids including at least one No.4 Seed or better. [By the way, under that definition, both the MOUNTAIN WEST and ATLANTIC 10 would have qualified as "B-Majors" last year, but the PACIFIC-12 would not have.])

    
But the Mega-Shift up top is just the headline for this year's GCM repercussions. The fine print is the 54-team reshuffle of conference membership in the off-season -- (nearly 1 in 6 teams changed leagues). No sooner does the ATLANTIC 10 reach "B-Major" status than it loses perennial powers Butler, Temple and Xavier. How will the status of the MVC suffer without Creighton? (One immediate consequence is the that MVC/MWC CHALLENGE has been discontinued; and, while on the topic, the SEC has switched its head-to-head CHALLENGE from the no-longer-Mega-BIG EAST to the BIG 12.) CONFERENCE USA is now a bloated 16-team/single division monstrosity (and without Memphis, whose to say it won't still be a One-Bid-Conference again this year?) Both the SUN BELT and the SOUTHERN CONFERENCE have re-aligned to single divisions as well. The WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE alone swapped out 7 old teams and swapped in 6 new ones. The four-year-old GREAT WEST never made it to full Division-I status, disbanding in the off-season; all of its members landed in new conferences except for New Jersey Tech, which will be the lone INDEPENDENT for this season -- Yikes.

Among all 32 teams who made it to the "Third" Round of last year's NCAA tournament, 29 lost either their leading scorer or at least two significant starters. Michigan State and North Carolina only lost one role-playing starter each. Meanwhile, not only did Harvard not lose any of last year's starters, it gains back two starters from 2011-12 season who were suspended from school last year as part of a campus-wide cheating scandal. It's a stretch to elevate the Spartans from a Sweet 16 finish all the way to No.1 just for returning intact. The Tar Heels' fortunes rest on eligibility issues for bP.J. Hairston and how quickly their new talent can improve their overall athleticism. The Crimson, who pulled off a three-peat in the IVY LEAGUE with what were supposed to be "replacement players", welcomes back "the real starters," fKyle Casey and pBrandyn Curry. As long as coach Tommy Amaker can manage everybody's minutes satisfactorily, it'll be favored to four- and even five-peat the next couple of years and establish the 1BC-version of Gonzaga's WEST COAST dynasty.

    
Last year's Player of the Year, tDoug McDermott(Creighton), has an outside shot at reaching 3000 career points; pAaron Craft(Ohio State) looks to cap off his career with a solid senior season; last year's Freshman of the Year, pMarcus Smart(Oklahoma State), rejected the one-and-done route for a shot at postseason success.

    
Yes, the NBA's 19-year-old age-limit rule that went into effect prior to the 2006-07 season ushered in the Era of the Golden Child; but for every true GC who was able to lead his team to the Final Four in his only season (cGreg Oden[Ohio State '07], pDerrick Rose[Memphis '08], cKevin Love[UCLA '08], pBrandon Knight[Kentucky '10] and cAnthony Davis[Kentucky '12]), we also have seen nearly the same number of veteran Mid-Major teams who broke through to the final weekend as well (Butler/HORIZON '10, Butler/HORIZON '11, VCU/COLONIAL '11 and now Wichita State/MVC '13 -- I'm only counting Memphis/C-USA '08 as part of the first trend, not the second.) Maybe four of this year's superfrosh have a shot at joining this list: pJulius Randle(Kentucky), fAndrew Wiggins(Kansas), fAaron Gordon(Arizona) and fJabari Parker(Duke) all will lead talented teams entirely revamped from last year's editions. Gonzaga/WCC (coming off a No.1 seed) and Wichita State/MVC are the only Mid-Majors who even seem capable of a Sweet 16 run at this point (not counting New Mexico/MWC, St. Louis/A-10, VCU/A-10, Boise State/MWC and La Salle/A-10 who now belong to B-Major leagues).

    
The 1BC teams who made the Sweet 16 in the GC Era (Davidson '08, Cornell '10, Ohio University '12) haven't been able to duplicate their postseason success the following year. So last year's darling, Florida Gulf Coast, has its work cut out for it (and like OhioU '13, it must do so with a new coach as Andy Enfield jumped ship to take over at USC). In fact, only Siena '08-'09 was even able to duplicate a 32-Splash win as Winthrop '07, Morehead State '11, Lehigh '12 and Norfolk State '12 all failed the following year -- so Harvard is up against the odds as well. 1BCs to watch: two-time defending [SUN BELT] tourney champ Western Kentucky is the favorite again (although newcomer Georgia State and star-in-the-making tR.J. Hunter will have a lot to say about that); three-time defending [NORTHEAST] tourney champ Long Island welcomes back star fJulian Boyd; and [MEAC] title champ Norfolk State has a veteran squad coming off an undefeated regular season.

Among the coach ranks, Brad Stevens left Butler to coach the Boston Celtics in the NBA; Steve Alford left MWC-favorite New Mexico to take over at UCLA (for fired Ben Howland); Tubby Smith was fired at Minnesota and replaced by Rick Pitino's son, Richard (ex-Florida International), while Smith landed at Texas Tech (meanwhile, Tubby's son, G.G. is the new coach at Loyola[Maryland]); Ronnie Arrow(South Alabama) and Tevester Anderson(Jackson State) retired; Andy Enfield parlayed Florida Gulf Coast's Sweet 16 run into the head job at USC (for fired Kevin O'Neill); Jeff Jones moved up from American to Old Dominion; and former star players came and went: Bobby Hurley(in at Buffalo), Reggie Theus(in at Cal State-Northridge), Dan Majerle(in at new {Grand Canyon}), Chris Collins(in at Northwestern, for fired Bill Carmody), Corliss Williamson(out at Central Arkansas). Eddie Jordan '76 takes over at Rutgers
(for Mike Rice, fired after a player abuse scandal).

Baylor-Colorado is the best matchup of the first weekend in the headliner game of the TIP-OFF SHOWCASE triple-header in Dallas (Friday).

    
(Don't forget ESPN's 24-hour(+) TIP-OFF MARATHON at the beginning of next week: Monday overnight/all-day Tuesday, concluding with the final installment of the three-year CHAMPIONS CLASSIC double-header series featuring Michigan State-Kentucky and Duke-Kansas, which will showcase 6 of the Top 10-rated freshmen.)

This year, we're on the road to "NORTH TEXAS" (COWBOYS STADIUM)!!!

-- Ron

Key games this week:

Friday:

@BYU-WeberSt(UT),


TIP-OFF SHOWCASE "BUCKETS AND BOOTS" TrplHdr @ DallasTX

-(@Baylor-Colorado, @Oklahoma-Alabama, @SMU-@TCU[Dallas/FtWorthTX]),

BROOKLYN-NOV 1Off @ BrooklynNY /BARCLAYS/

-(Connecticut-Maryland),

ARMED FORCES CLASSIC 1Off @ SeoulKOREA /HUMPHREYS/

-(Oregon-Georgetown),

1Off @ SiouxFallsSD /PENTAGON/

-(Wisconsin-StJohns),

Friday-Saturday:

ALL-MILITARY CLASSIC 1st/Semis @ LexingtonVA /VMI/

-(AirForce-Army, @VMI-TheCitadel),

USD CLASSIC RndRob @ SanDiegoCA /SanDiego/

-(@SanDiego, LoyolaMarymount, SDState, {GrandCanyon}),

Friday-Saturday,Monday week:

RAINBOW CLASSIC RndRob @ HonluluHI /Hawaii/

-(@Hawaii, TennesseeSt, NewMexicoSt, WeMichigan),

Friday-Thursday week:

KSU INVITATIONAL RndRob on-campus, @KennesawGA /KennesawSt/

-(FLInternational, YoungstownSt, EaKentucky, @KennesawSt, {WarrenWilson}),

Friday-Wed 20 Nov:

GS-2 SHOOTOUT RndRob on-campus

-(Cincinnati, NCState, AppalachianSt, Campbell, NCCentral),

Friday-Thu 21 Nov:

GS-1 CHALLENGE RndRob on-campus

-(@Florida, MidTennessee, ARLittleRock, NFlorida, Southern),

Friday-Fri 22 Nov:

GS-4 MAIN EVENT RndRob on-campus

-(Colorado, Wyoming, ArkansasSt, TNMartin, JacksonSt),


GS-3 INVITATIONAL RndRob on-campus

-(Illinois, Bradley, ChicagoSt, JacksonvilleSt, AlabamaSt),

Saturday:

@Penn-@Temple(PhiladelphiaPA)(BG),


CONNECTICUT SIX CLASSIC TrplHdr @ BridgeportCT /Fairfield/

-(@Yale-CConnecticutSt[CT], @Hartford-@Quinnipiac[CT], @Fairfield-@SacredHeart[FairfieldCT]),

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Top 25 - 13 Nov 4 : PRESEASON - [] Column

1. Louisville
   
2. Michigan State
   
3. Michigan
   
4. Oklahoma State
   
5. New Mexico
   
6. Ohio State
   
7. Duke
   
8. Kentucky
   
9. Kansas
   
10. Syracuse
    
11. Arizona
    
12. North Carolina
    
13. Florida
    
14. Gonzaga
    
15. Memphis
    
16. Creighton
    
17. Harvard
    
18. St. Louis
    
19. Boise State
    
20. Notre Dame
    
21. Baylor
    
22. Connecticut
    
23. Virginia
    
24. UCLA
    
25. Florida Gulf Coast
    

Worth keeping an eye on:

Marquette, Wichita State, Indiana, La Salle, California, Colorado, Iowa State, VCU, Arizona State, BYU, UNLV, UAB, Georgia State, Green Bay, Vermont, Long Island.