09 Nov9 - The Golden Age (PRESEASON)

I've updated the college hoops website ( http://www.ronmcbay.us/HLS ) for the 2009-10 season.

-- I've added a YEARLY RESULTS table to the DATA SERVER section. It has a complete record for all teams showing the years they made the NCAA tournament, won their conference regular season title or tournament, and other noteworthy years (joining and leaving a league). Please check it out and give me any feedback you feel. (Thanks to everybody who helped me with the beta-testing earlier.) I'll continue to flesh out win-loss records and player rosters as an on-going, long-term project.

Volume XIV, No. 1 - 09 Nov 9 : PRESEASON - [] Top 25 Ballot

The Golden Age

It's Year Four for college basketball under the effects of the NBA's 19-year-old/one-year-out-of-high-school minimum age limit. In 2007, we had a freshman Player of the Year (tKevin Durant[Oklahoma State]) and another reach the national finals (cGreg Oden[Ohio State]). In 2008, fMichael Beasley(Kansas State) was runner-up for POY while pDerrick Rose(Memphis) led his team to the final game and cKevin Love(UCLA) led his to the Final Four. 2009 was kind of a bust for the Golden Child -- no GCs made the Final Four; bTyreke Evans(Memphis State) led his team to the Sweet 16; the teams of cSamardo Samuels(Louisville) and gWillie Warren(Oklahoma) made the Elite Eight, but they weren't the lead players.
    The original GC class are now seniors (led by pScottie Reynolds[Villanova] and cLuke Harangody[Notre Dame]). The '08 holdovers (such as bManny Harris[Michigan], tKyle Singler[Duke], fPatrick Patterson[Kentucky], cA.J. Ogilvy[Vanderbilt]) should figure prominently this season even with a bumper crop of talented freshmen expected to headline immediately. Technically, we should no longer be in a situation where the incoming class is automatically better than those already present. Was last year's non-GC showing one bad season, or was The Golden Age just a temporary imbalance?
    There's no denying the GC effect -- no surprise: The Rich Got Richer. In the three-year period prior to the NBA rule (2004-06), the six BCS leagues won 139 (out of 189) NCAA games. For the period 2007-09, it jumped to 149 wins for the Big Boys. Meanwhile, (ignoring Play-In results), the 1BCs (One-Bid Conferences) dropped from 8 wins for 2004-06 down to just 4 wins for 2007-09 (i.e., if you disclaim Davidson's Elite Eight run in '08 as a case of a misrecruited BCS star [NBA-son gStephen Curry] playing in a 1BC league). (In fact, his brother gSeth Curry [last year's top-scoring freshman], is sitting out this season having transferred from 1BC Liberty to BCS Duke.) The number of 1BC leagues going 0-3 went from 11 to 13. With fewer than 5 of the Top 100 incoming freshmen headed for non-BCS schools -- nothing new, mind you -- don't expect the trend to reverse.
    The MMs (Mid-Majors) hung on, only dropping from 42 wins for '04-06 down to 36 for '07-09. They're at a bit of a crossroads this year, though, with the coaching change at Memphis(Conference USA) and an off recruiting year for Gonzaga(West Coast). The good news is that Butler(Horizon) and Western Kentucky(Sun Belt) have managed to maintain programs that can produce NCAA wins through coaching changes and star turnover. The stellar cohort at Siena(Metro Atlantic) will be looking for their third-straight year with an NCAA win as they go out as seniors. In the '90s, three-peat Ivy League cohorts were able to pull off first-round splash wins during their runs (Penn '94, Princeton '96,'98), but Penn '05-07 wasn't able to win in the NCAAs. This year is the last go-around for Cornell's five returning starters to try and break the GC barrier.

The Missouri Valley and Mountain West have established a new head-to-head CHALLENGE (9 individual games spread out across the preseason) along the lines of the BIG 12/PAC-10 HARDWOOD SERIES. With most all of the MVC teams also participating in February's BRACKETBUSTERS event as well, the league figures to bump up its RPI rating for consideration of NCAA bids. C-USA and the WCC could be hurt in a big way if their standard bearers slip from Anti-Spoiler status as expected. The Atlantic 10 (Dayton) and Sun Belt have strong lead teams this year. The WAC at least has a major BRACKETBUSTERS presence. The Colonial's downward trend may continue with no standout team at the top.

On pure talent, five rosters stand out apart from the rest. Kansas has everybody back from last year (especially, the inside-outside duo of pSherron Collins and cCole Aldrich), is riding a streak of five straight BIG 12 regular season titles, and has a loaded set of incoming players (led by 6-6 fXavier Henry) as well. (Mind you, there weren't enough minutes to go around last year, but too much of a good thing is a nice problem to have.) Kentucky has one major returning star (fPatterson) and six incoming players (including 6-4 pJohn Wall and 6-11 cDeMarcus Cousins) good enough to make an immediate impact. North Carolina has a pair of frontcourt players (fDeon Thompson and fEd Davis) who'll smoothly transition into headliners plus five new stars (led by 6-10 fJohn Henson). Texas has xDamion James and adds four new stars (including 6-3 gAvery Bradley and 6-7 fJordan Hamilton). Villanova has last year's Final Four backcourt intact (headed by pReynolds) and five newcomers (led by 6-9 fMouphtaou Yarou) collectively more talented than the frontcourt players who departed.
    (6-10 cDerrick Favors[Georgia Tech] and 6-3 gAbdul Gaddy[Washington] are GC-quality headliners as well, but their talents alone may not be enough to make their teams anything more than spoiler material.)

No way can the Big East repeat it's showing last year when it produced three #1-seeds for the NCAA tournament -- the depth is still there, but only Villanova figures to be a juggernaut. The ACC (UNC, Duke) and Big 12 (Kansas, Texas) are similarly top-heavy with good depth of talented-but-incomplete teams just behind the leaders. The SEC can't possibly be as terrible as last year -- Kentucky's resurgence should be immediate and Tennessee has everybody back. The Big 10 (whose first-team all-conference squad last year was all sophomores) is a year older -- led by five returning starters at Sweet 16 Purdue and Ohio State (featuring tEvan Turner) while Michigan State (still with pKalin Lucas) has new talent in the paint. The Pac-10 appears to have slipped the most -- only California (featuring pJerome Randle) can say it didn't lose a major star from last year's tournament team.
    Five returning starters at Butler(Horizon) and Northern Iowa(MVC) should keep those leagues in the main conversation all season. Likewise, Old Dominion(Colonial) has everybody back after winning the inaugural CIT (CollegeInsider.com Tournament) last year.

We have a new league this year. The GREAT WEST CONFERENCE (Chicago State, {Houston Baptist}, {New Jersey Institute of Technology}, {North Dakota}, {South Dakota}, Texas Pan American and Utah Valley) is made up mostly of teams still in the midst of reclassifying for Division-I. (No automatic bid. In fact, only ChiSt and TXPA are even eligible for an at-large bid; but the conference tournament champ will get an automatic bid into the CIT.)
    In addition to the new MVC/MWC CHALLENGE, we have a new Christmas tournament, the DIAMOND HEAD CLASSIC (8-team bracket) in Hawaii.

Off-season scandals were a messy bunch this year.
    The firing of Billy Gillispie from Kentucky wasn't handled cleanly. No sooner did John Calipari leave Memphis for UK than the NCAA vacated all 38 wins from the 2008 season because of eligibility issues involving (allegedly) pDerrick Rose and cJoey Dorsey. It's the second Final Four season for Memphis that has been wiped off the books ('85/cKeith Lee); and it's Calipari's second Final Four trip that has been erased ('96 Massachusetts/cMarcus Camby.)
    Rick Pitino had an ugly personal scandal that will likely have him in tabloid territory this season as the legal process progresses. (Nevertheless, the Kentucky-Louisville rivalry will be much invigorated now that it's headlined by Calipari-Pitino to boot. Those two split 4-4 head-to-head in C-USA. [Mark down Jan 2: Lville-@UK.])
    Tim Floyd left USC on the heels of a compensation scandal revolving around former GC pO.J. Mayo.
    Worst of all was the complete implosion of the basketball program at SUNY-B (Binghamton). After making its first-ever trip to the NCAAs in the spring, things began to unravel with the drug arrest of a star player. Ultimately, the fallout led to the dismissal of six players, the head coach and the Athletic Director. Yikes.

Cleaner changes include the fourth coach in four years for the seniors at Arizona as Sean Miller left Xavier to take over in Tucson. One of the former AZ coaches, Kevin O'Neill, is now in charge at USC. Tony Bennett left Washington State to take over at Virginia. Anthony Grant moved up from VCU to Alabama (replacing fired Mark Gottfried). Mark Fox left Nevada to take over at Georgia.

On tap this first week are warmup/opening round games for preseaon tournaments: COACHES VS CANCER (North Carolina, Ohio State, California, Syracuse), CBE CLASSIC (Texas, Pitt, Iowa, Wichita State), SOUTH PADRE (Mississippi State, Old Dominion, Missouri, Richmond, Chattanooga, Longwood), GLENN WILKES (N.C. State, Auburn, Drake, Central Florida, Niagara, Akron, Georgia State).
    The most interesting actual matchups figure to be on Saturday (@Dayton-Creighton), and the first of the MVC/MWC CHALLENGE games on Friday (@BYU-Bradley).

We're on the road to Indianapolis this year, folks.

-- Ron

Key games this week:

Monday-Thursday; Thursday week-Mon 23 Nov:

COACHES VS CANCER CLASSIC Warmup on-campus, 3rd/Cons @ AlbanyNY, MiamiFL; 3rd/Semis @ New York,NY /MSG/
- (A: @NCarolina, @OhioSt;
   A Cons: JamesMadison, @FLInternational, MurraySt, {NCCentral};
   B: @California, @Syracuse;
   B Cons: Detroit, @Albany, RobertMorris, AlcornSt),

Thursday-Tuesday week; Friday-Sunday 20-22 Nov:

GLENN WILKES CLASSIC RndRob on-campus, @ Daytona Beach,FL
- (NCState, Auburn, Drake, @CFlorida, Niagara, GeorgiaSt, AustinPeay, IUPUI, Akron, Howard),

Friday:

@Kentucky-MoreheadSt(UK), @Memphis-JacksonSt, @WeberSt-UtahSt(UT),

Friday-Sunday:

DUEL IN THE DESERT RndRob @ Lubbock, TX
- (OregonSt, @TexasTech, @TexasA&MCC, {SDakota}),
WV INVITATIONAL RndRob @ Providence, RI
- (@Providence, Bucknell, Mercer, {Bryant}),

Friday-Wednesday 23 Dec:

MVC/MWC CHALLENGE on-campus (Evansville doesn't play)
- (Fri: @BYU-Bradley;
   Fri 20 Nov: @IndianaSt-ColoradoSt;
   Sat 21 Nov: @UNLV-SoIllinois;
   Sat 5 Dec: @MissouriSt-AirForce;
   Sat 12 Dec: @WichitaSt-TCU;
   Sat 19 Dec: @NewMexico-Creighton, @Utah-IllinoisSt;
   Tue 22 Dec: @Drake-SanDiegoSt;
   Wed 23 Dec: @NoIowa-Wyoming),

Sunday-Thursday week; Monday-Wednesday 23-25 Nov:

CBE CLASSIC Warmup on-campus; 3rd/Cons RndRob @ CullowheeNC, RichmondKY; 3rd/Semis @ Kansas City,MO
- (A: @Texas, @Iowa;
   A Cons: Duquesne, SUNYB, @WeCarolina, {ARMonticello};
   B: @Pittsburgh, @WichitaSt;
   B Cons: FairleighDickinson, UCIrvine, @EaKentucky, TXSanAntonio),

Sunday-Tuesday 24 Nov; Friday-Saturday 27-28 Nov:

SOUTH PADRE ISLAND INVITATIONAL RndRob on-campus; Semis @ South Padre Island,TX
- (A: @MississippiSt, @Richmond, Longwood, BethuneCookman;
   B: @OldDominion, @Missouri, Chattanooga, @TXPanAmerican),

Saturday:

@Dayton-Creighton, @Oklahoma-MtStMarys,

Sunday:

@MDBaltimoreCo-MorganSt(Baltimore,MD).

---

Top 25 - 09 Nov 9 : PRESEASON - [] Column

1. Villanova
2. Kansas
3. Kentucky
4. North Carolina
5. Texas
6. Michigan State
7. Purdue
8. Connecticut
9. Duke
10. Tennessee
11. Notre Dame
12. Michigan
13. Ohio State
14. West Virginia
15. Louisville
16. Butler
17. Siena
18. Dayton
19. Oklahoma
20. Oklahoma State
21. California
22. Minnesota
23. Illinois
24. Western Kentucky
25. Northern Iowa

Worth keeping an eye on:

Cornell, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Memphis, Nevada, Old Dominion, Radford, San Diego State, Tulsa.