12 Nov 5 - The Great Conference Migration (PRESEASON)

Volume XVII, No. 1 - 12 Nov 5 : PRESEASON - [] Top 25 Ballot

The Great Conference Migration

I'm working from a backup system at the moment after my main system crashed last week. My subscriber list may not be perfectly accurate. If you didn't get this first HLS column emailed to you directly as you were supposed to, please bear with me while I recover and regroup. -- Ron

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Last year's head storyline was about three dominant teams from the start -- Kentucky, Ohio State and North Carolina. The Wildcats dominated the SEC (undefeated) and, except for a preseason buzzer-beater and a conference tourney upset, they nearly went the entire season without a loss. The Buckeyes shared the BIG 10 title three ways and did make the Final Four. The Tar Heels won the ACC title, but a key injury stymied their own shot at the Final Four. This year doesn't begin with any can't-miss juggernaut squads.

We're in Year Two of the multi-year Great Conference Migration. The driving forces are teams' switching leagues in pursuit of a better shot at automatic qualification for BCS football bowls and Texas' push to become a national brand (akin to Notre Dame). Last year, the PAC-10[12] and BIG 10 expanded to 12 teams while the BIG 12 reduced to 10. This year, the BIG 12 lost Missouri and Texas A&M to the SEC (and replaced them with West Virginia[BIG EAST] and TCU[MOUNTAIN WEST]). The MOUNTAIN WEST added Fresno State[WAC] and Nevada[WAC]; the WAC added 5 schools (including Denver[SUN BELT] and 3 Texas schools from the SOUTHLAND) prompting Hawaii to bolt for the all-California BIG WEST; the SOUTHLAND added Oral Roberts[SUMMIT] but is now down to a single division. Belmont[ATLANTIC SUN] is now in the OHIO VALLEY (up to 12 teams/two divisions). The BIG SOUTH is now two divisions as well.

    
The big basketball move this year involves the two flagship Mid-Major programs, Butler and VCU -- they've both made it to the Final Four from their HORIZON and COLONIAL home leagues, but they've both jumped ship to the ATLANTIC 10 (now up to 16 teams!) It won't likely be quite the "Mega-A-10" this season -- don't expect 8 teams to make the NCAAs, (but it already had a better postseason than the PAC-12 last year [as did the MOUNTAIN WEST and the WEST COAST]); and with the BIG EAST downgrading even more next year, the A-10's "Mid-Major" classification may need to be officially adjusted. (Can't see how 16 teams can be happy over the long-term in a single-division league, though, if they don't start to get BCS-level respect come bid time [especially if there's no football reason to be there].)

    
(Check back in March and assess whether the switch was a good decision for Butler and VCU, or whether they'd have gotten a better shot at an NCAA bid back in their old leagues.)

It's generally a down year (at least at the start) for the college hoops landscape. We don't have any killer squads ready to dominate from Day One this season. Only one of last year's Final Four teams is essentially intact, Louisville, and the Cardinals were only a seventh place league team that got hot at season's end, winning the BIG EAST tournament and then four more games in the NCAAs. No reason not to give UofL its due, but this isn't a squad aiming at immortality.

    
tDoug McDermott(Creighton) is head-and-shoulders the Preseason Player of the Year -- great low-post moves in the paint and a feathery touch from distance. bRodney McGruder(Kansas State), gIsaiah Canaan(Murray State), pMatthew Dellavedova(St. Mary's) and bC.J. McCollum(Lehigh) aren't one-man teams (but their splashworthy schools are only going as far as these stars can take them).

    
Expect freshmen to have a big impact this season yet again. Duke and UNC will rely heavily on new players, but as great as they are, Mike Krzyzewski and Roy Williams aren't on the level of John Calipari in terms of molding young teams into Final Four contenders right away -- you can expect Kentucky to be great despite losing all five starters from last year's National Champs. UCLA and Arizona are loaded with new talent, but there's lots to improve on from last year. The superfrosh stepping into the best situations are 5-11 pYogi Ferrell(Indiana), fT.J. Warren and gRodney Purvis(N.C. State), fGlenn Robinson III(Michigan) [son of the Purdue great], fShaq Goodwin(Memphis), fSam Dekker(Wisconsin) and cSteven Adams(Pittsburgh).

Two decades have passed since North Carolina State was top dog (title or tourney) in the ACC. Can the one-word Wolfpack handle the preseason hype (and stay ahead of the growth curve of the young talent at UNC and Duke)? Memphis has all five starters back from last year's TiTo CONFERENCE USA champs. Fortified Stanford[NIT] and Pittsburgh[CBI] (bTrey Zeigler) expect to improve on their consolation crowns.

    
Even though coach John Groce parlayed last year's Sweet 16 run (and near upset of North Carolina in OT) into a jump to Illinois this year, Ohio University figures to be this year's "it" squad in 1BC-land -- all five starters back and, arguably, an even better coach in Jim Christian (who guided Kent State to the Elite 8 in 2002 behind bTrevor Huffman and NFL tight end fAntonio Gates). Lehigh is essentially intact from the squad that upset Duke in the NCAA first round. TiTo champs Davidson[SOUTHERN], Montana[BIG SKY] (bWill Cherry) and Long Island[NORTHEAST] (fJulian Boyd, fJamal Olasewere) expect a repeat and more this year. Mercer expects to trade in its CIT crown for an ATLANTIC SUN title.

    
But sometimes it's harder to be "it" 1BC squad that everybody sees coming -- Harvard, Belmont and Long Beach State couldn't make a splash in last year's NCAAs while OhioU came out of nowhere to shock the world.

In the coaching merry-go-round: Hall of Fame coach Jim Calhoun retired at Connecticut. Hall of Fame coach Larry Brown returned to college at SMU (after Matt Doherty was fired). Bobby Cremins retired at College of Charleston. Billy Gillispie resigned at Texas Tech for health reasons. Seth Greenberg(Virginia Tech), Rick Stansbury(Mississippi State), Chris Lowery(Southern Illinois) and Isiah Thomas(Florida International) were fired. Frank Martin moved to South Carolina (after Darrin Horn was fired); fired/Bruce Weber landed at Kansas State; John Groce moved to Illinois; Jim Chrisitan moved to Ohio University; Trent Johnson left LSU for TCU. Fired/Jim Baron landed at Canisius; Dan Hurley left Wagner for Rhode Island. Fired/Doug Wojcik landed at College of Charleston; Danny Manning took over at Tulsa. Fired/Mike Davis landed at Texas Southern; Jerod Haase took over at UAB.

The BARCLAYS CENTER in Brooklyn (new home of the NBA Nets) is the new venue all over the college basketball calendar: the BC CLASSIC (November), COACHES VS CANCER CLASSIC (November), LEGENDS CLASSIC (November) and the ATLANTIC-10 tournament. The MGM GRAND is now the fourth venue in Las Vegas hosting c-hoops (a two-day Christmas event and the PAC-12 tournament).

We get things started this week with some preseason tournament warm-up games and then a slate of four MILITARY CLASSICS for VETERAN'S DAY weekend (Friday): Ohio State-Marquette, Florida-Georgetown, San Diego State-Syracuse, Michigan State-Connecticut. Last year's darling Lehigh retries the Glass Slipper right away at retooling Baylor (Friday) -- a road loss doesn't turn it back into a Pumpkin, but don't be surprised if the Mountain Hawks can shock the young Bears even in Waco. Akron (featuring 7-0 cZeke Marshall) gets an early chance to make some noise on the road at BIG SOUTH favorite Coastal Carolina (Friday).

(Don't forget ESPN's 24-hour TIP-OFF MARATHON next week: Monday overnight/all-day Tuesday. Included is the second installment of the three-year CHAMPIONS CLASSIC double-header series [in Atlanta /GEORGIA DOME/ this year] featuring Duke-Kentucky and Kansas-Michigan State.)

This year, we're on the road to ATLANTA!!! (I NEED TICKETS!!!)

-- Ron

Key games this week:

Thursday-Tuesday week; Thursday week-Wed 21 Nov:

COACHES VS CANCER CLASSIC WarmUp(2) on-campus, 2nd/Cons @EvansvilleIN;AtlantaGA, 3rd/Semis @ BrooklynNY /BARCLAYS/

-(A: @NotreDame, @StJosephs;

  B: @FloridaSt, @BYU;

  A Cons: Buffalo, @Evansville, Yale, WeIllinois;

  B Cons: @GeorgiaSt, TennesseeSt, SAlabama, Monmouth),

Friday:

Lehigh-@Baylor, @CoCarolina-Akron,

SALUTE TO THE MILITARY 1Offs on-base

  CARRIER CLASSIC @ CharlestonSC /U.S.S. YORKTOWN/

-(OhioSt-Marquette);

  NAVY/MARINE CLASSIC @ JacksonvilleFL /U.S.S. BATAAN/

-(Florida-Georgetown);

  BATTLE ON THE MIDWAY @ SanDiegoCA /U.S.S. MIDWAY/

-(@SanDiegoSt-Syracuse);

  ARMED FORCES CLASSIC @ RAMSTEIN AIR BASE,GERMANY

-(MichiganSt-Connecticut),

Friday; Monday week-Wed 21 Nov:

BC CLASSIC RndRob 1st/Feature @ BrooklynNY /BARCLAYS/, on-campus

-(Fri: Kentucky-Maryland,
@LongIsland-MoreheadSt;

  Lafayette),

Friday-Tuesday week; Saturday week-Sunday week; Mon-Wed 19-21 Nov:

MAUI INVITATIONAL WarmUp(1) on-campus, 3rd/Cons @ ElonNC, 2nd/Qtrs @ LahainaHI

-(Mon 19 Nov [Main]: NCarolina-MississippiSt, Butler-Marquette, Illinois-USC, Texas-@{Chaminade};

  Sat 17 Nov [Cons]: Colgate-@Elon, FLAtlantic-CoppinSt),

Friday-Tuesday week; Saturday week-Sunday week; Fri 23 Nov:

HALL OF FAME TIP-OFF RndRob on-campus, @ UncasvilleCT

-(A: @OhioSt, @RhodeIsland, MOKansasCity, Albany;

  B: @SetonHall, @Washington, LoyolaMD, NorfolkSt),

Friday-Thursday week; Sunday week-Fri 23 Nov:

CBE CLASSIC WarmUp(2) on-campus, 2nd/Cons @ SantaClaraCA ChattanoogaTN, 3rd/Sems @ KansasCityMO

-(A: @Kansas, @WashingtonSt;

 B: @TexasA&M, @StLouis;

 A Cons: @SantaClara, SCUpstate, EaWashington, UTValley;

 B Cons: SEMissouriSt, LouisianaTech, Troy, @Chattanooga),

Friday,Sunday; Wednesday week-Thursday week; Friday week-Sunday week:

2KS CLASSIC WarmUp(2) on-campus, 2nd/Cons @ HempsteadNY NiagaraUniversityNY, 3rd/Semis @ NewYorkNY /MSG/

-(A: @Alabama, @OregonSt;

  B: @Villanova, @Purdue;

  A Cons: @Hofstra, Marshall, SDState, {UDC};

  B Cons: Bucknell, @Niagara, NewMexicoSt, {WAlabama}, {NoNewMexico}),

Saturday-Tue 20 Nov:

GS CLASSIC RndRob on-campus, @ Las VegasNV /UNLV/

-(A: @UNLV, @Oregon, NoArizona, JacksonvilleSt;

  B: @Cincinnati, @IowaSt, Campbell, NCA&T),

Sunday-Thursday week; Mon-Wed 19-21 Nov:

LEGENDS CLASSIC WarmUp(2) on-campus, 2nd/Cons @ PittsburghPA HuntsvilleTX, 3rd/Semis @ BrooklynNY /BARCLAYS/

-(A: @Indiana, @Georgia;

  B: @UCLA, @Georgetown;

  A Cons: @Duquesne, YoungstownSt, JamesMadison, NDState;

  B Cons: SoMississippi, UCIrvine, @SamHoustonSt, Liberty),

Monday week, Thu-Fri,Sun 22-23,25 Nov:

OS/ORLANDO CLASSIC WarmUp(1) on-campus, 1st,2nd/Qtrs @ LakeBuenaVistaFL

-(Mon week: @Gonzaga-WVirginia;

  Thu 22 Nov: Davidson-Vanderbilt, WVirginia-Marist, Oklahoma-UTEP, Gonzaga-Clemson),

Monday week-Tuesday week; Mon-Tue 19-20 Nov; Wed,Fri 21,23 Nov:

NIT SEASON TIP-OFF 1st/16s @ regional sites, Semis/Finals @ NewYorkNY /MSG/

-(  NORTH: @(1n)Michigan-IUPUI, (7n)ClevelandSt-BowlingGreen(OH);

     EAST: @(4e)Pittsburgh-Fordham, @(5e)Lehigh-@(6e)RobertMorris(PA);

   MIDWEST: @(3m)KansasSt-Lamar, NTexas-{ALHuntsville};

    SOUTH: @(2s)Virginia-Fairfield, (8s)Delaware-Penn).