13 Mar26 - "We Just Flew In From The Coast"

Volume XVII, No. 21 - 13 Mar26

"We Just Flew In From The Coast"

The surprise headline from the first weekend of the NCAA tournament was undoubtedly [S15]Florida Gulf Coast's becoming the first #15-seed to make the Sweet 16. The high-flying Eagles (in only their second year of full Division-I eligibility) shocked [S2]Georgetown (78-68) and followed that up with a win over [S7]San Diego State (81-71). A team like Gtown is built to deal with other juggernauts, not pesky nobodies. It wasn't the crowd's turning in favor of its opponent -- the Hoyas won at the Carrier Dome in front of the largest on-campus crowd ever (35,012) -- it was failing to take its opponent seriously enough and failing to realize it had flaws that could be exploited by an attack it didn't expect. If the teams didn't have names on their jerseys, you wouldn't have thought the Eagles had pulled off any kind of upset in its two wins -- they outran and outjumped SnDgoSt and Gtown and looked every bit the better team. Yes, they were playing loose and free without the pressure of expectations, but they're no fluke -- and this is no Jack Dawson team, either; it split squeak home wins with ATLANTIC SUN regular season champ Mercer and won the tourney final decisively on the Bears' home floor; only an OT home loss vs Lipscomb kept it from being co-champ in league play. And there's no reason to think they can't keep on winning.

    
It was starting to look like the three-peat/1BCs weren't going to be able to pull off a win. [W11]Belmont couldn't handle [W6]Arizona (64-81); [E11]Bucknell's cMike Muscala couldn't deal with [E6]Butler's physical play (56-@68, but teammate fJoe Willman nearly came to the rescue); [E14]Davidson had [E3]Marquette beaten, but the nation's best free throw-shooting team played like it was afraid to be fouled at the end; leave it to [W14]Harvard (which wasn't even supposed to be here after it lost its two best players to a cheating scandal) -- who'd figure the Crimson to be the better athletes on the floor against [W3]New Mexico (68-62)?

   
Like VCU before it, [W13b]La Salle was able to use the head start of playing in one of the FIRST FOUR "Bubble" games to gain some momentum to carry it through to the second week of the tournament. After knocking off [W13a]Boise State (80-71), the Explorers won two nail-biters against [W4]Kansas State (63-@61) and upstart [M12]Mississippi (76-74, on gTyrone Garland's game-winning drive). It's the furthest LaSal has been in the NCAA tournament since the days of cTom Gola(NatlChamp'54,RunrUp'55) -- (fLionel Simmons[64s'88,64s'89,32s'90] never made it past the second round.)

After playing the most unwatchable game of the tournament (73-55 over [W8]Pittsburgh), [W9]Wichita State knocked off the highest seed in the first week, [W1]Gonzaga (76-70). You figured that a physical team would give the Bulldogs problems, but who figure'd that the 'Shockers would hit 14-for-28 three-pointers? There was plenty of disagreement over whether Gonz had deserved to receive the first #1-seed in school history, anyway. For all of its (regular season) success, the 'Zags haven't made it past the Sweet 16 since the very first time they came onto the scene when they knocked off Final Four veteran Stanford on the way to the Elite 8 back in 1999.

    
The NCAA Seeding Committee has abandoned the S-Curve method for placing teams in Regionals (winding back-and-forth in an "S" pattern after the top four seeds have been given their geographical preferences) for granting the most geographically preferential Regional (as well as Pod) to every team in order of their seeding. That, plus other bracketing rules (and logistical issues with which teams to send to the FIRST FOUR games) wound up with PAC-12 tourney champ Oregon getting a #12-seed but playing in the San Jose Pod along with conferencemate [E12]California. A bad draw for their opponents as OU knocked off [M5]Oklahoma State (68-53, as tMarcus Smart(14p5a9r5s5to couldn't do enough) and [M4]St. Louis (74-57) while Cal edged [E5]UNLV (@64-61).

    
Some teams are built for tournament play (Louisville, VCU) and some are built for conference play (Georgetown, Wisconsin, Notre Dame). [S5]VCU blitzed [S12]Akron (88-42, facing the Rams "Havoc" pressure without suspended point guard pAlex Abreu). [W5]Wisconsin couldn't handle [W12]Mississippi (46-57). [W7]Notre Dame's plodding front line had no one it could guard when [W10]Iowa State spread the floor and exploited the Irish with its 'tweener lineup (76-@58).

    
[M11b]St. Mary's had a tough draw having to face up-tempo [M11a]Middle Tennessee (67-54) in Dayton,OH on Tuesday evening and then travelling to play just-as-speedy [M6]Memphis (52-54) in Auburn Hills,MI on Thursday afternoon. [M11]Minnesota took advantage of [M6]UCLA's injury issues (83-63).

    
The way its season went, it's no surprise [E8]N.C. State lost right away (72-76 to [E9]Temple, thanks to 31p from gKhalif Wyatt) -- (it was lucky to get back into the game after going down by 18). It's almost seems like a bad thing to have all five starters back from a successful season -- (look how Ohio University underachieved all season, not even making it back to the NCAAs after last year's Sweet 16 run). Without a specific hole to fill, there's no natural competitive element pushing you to be at your best; and it's easy to get comfortable and feel that what you already have was good enough last year so it'll be good enough this year. But you can't wait around in second gear and rely on shifting "only when you really need it". It's a mindset issue, not talent ... and that means coaching, frankly. Coaching complacent veterans (more like an NBA team) requires a different skill than coaching young talent eager to improve.

Playing in front of supportive "home" crowd Pods, [M1]@Louisville, [M3]@Michigan State and [MS4]@Michigan all handled potentially troublesome opponents with ease. [M8]Colorado State was impressive beating [M9]Missouri (84-72), but looked helpless against Lville's assault (56-@82). In a matchup of Speed vs Size, Size won as MichSt routed [M6]Memphis (@70-48). The hoped-for star matchup of pTrey Burke(6p7a;2/12fg) and pNate Wolters(10p6a5r;3/14fg) didn't materialize as Mich beat [S13]South Dakota State (@71-56). The team that forces the most turnovers (VCU, 20tpg) met the team that commits the least turnovers (Michigan, 10tpg) -- the Wolverines only committed 12 -- game over (@78-53).

    
[S1]Kansas has underwhelmed in two game so far. The Jayhawks trailed [S8]North Carolina at the half (@21-30), but they were able to turn things around in the second half for a comfortable win (@70-58). bBen McLemore(2p;0/9fg), runner-up for Freshman of the Year, never got going. (Can't believe Roy Williams had the nerve to complain about having to play Kansas in Kansas City when, year after year, UNC (and Duke) get to play in Raleigh/Greensboro/Charlotte!)

    
Despite having "home" Pods, [E1]Indiana and [W2]Ohio State had to rescue defeat from victory. [W10]Iowa State gave OhioSt all it could handle and pAaron Craft went from goat (missing big free throws) to hero (hitting the game-winning three-pointer). The Buckeyes also benefitted from a charge call even though replays showed pCraft's heel was "hovering inside the circle" (while his toe was touching outside the circle) -- (I don't get why everyone agreed afterwards that this should have been a call against him -- anywhere else on the floor his foot position would have been ruled safe, so why should it be different in this one special case?) IU couldn't shake [E9]Temple (as gKhalif Wyatt had another 31p) -- the Hoosiers trailed 45-50 going into the final endplay segment, but rose up with several big plays on offense and defense to close with a 10-0 run and a @58-52 victory.

    
[M2]Duke held Doug McDermott in check (21p;4/16fg) in beating [M7]Creighton (66-50). [S3]Florida was solid against [M11]Minnesota (78-64). [E4]Syracuse's offensive woes returned, but the 2-3 zone saved the day on defense; give the Orange credit for the "road" win in San Jose (66-@60 over [E12]California) when [E5]UNLV couldn't. [E2]Miami(Florida) escaped against [E7]Illinois (63-59) thanks to a big three-pointer from gShane Larkin (and a bad call out of bounds that gave possession to the Hurricanes). [E3]Marquette survived two endplays: (58-57 as [E14]Davidson gave away a game it had in hand) and (74-@72 over [E6]@Butler, paying back the buzzer-beater loss from MAUI). Easiest of all, [W6]Arizona's path to the Sweet 16 was [W11]Belmont (81-64) and [W14]Harvard (74-51).

As expected, the BIG 10 was dominant -- 10-3 overall with 4 teams into the Sweet 16. The BIG EAST placed 3 teams into next week, but was only 6-5 in total. The ACC (5-2) and PAC-12 (5-3) each had 2 teams left. The ATLANTIC 10 was 6-1 after the second round, but wound up 7-4 as only La Salle made it through to the second weekend. The MVC (3-1), SEC (3-2) and BIG 12 (3-4) had one survivor each (along with 2-0 ATLANTIC SUN!). The WEST COAST (2-2) was shut out. Most shocking, the MOUNTAIN WEST -- which was rated #1 by the RPI (and rated 3rd, ranked 5th by me) -- went belly-up: 2-5 with no team advance past the Round of 32 (with everyone except ColoSt bowing out to a lower seed).

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In the NIT, with Rupp Arena in use hosting an NCAA Pod, [m1]Kentucky had go on the road -- a hostile 3000-seat gym is a far cry from a supportive 23,000-seat arena -- it wasn't even a "home-away-from-home" "neutral" crowd that the Wildcats normally get in the postseason -- [m8]Robert Morris pulled off the stunner, @59-57. [e7]Stony Brook (71-@58 over [e2]Massachusetts) and [s7]Mercer (75-@67 over [s2]Tennessee) claimed huge road wins. [s5]Louisiana Tech won at [s4]Florida State (71-@66) and [e5]St. John's knocked off host [e4]St. Joseph's (63-@61). [m2]Baylor (@89-86 over [m3]Arizona State), [s1]Southern Mississippi (@63-52 over [s5]LaTech) and [w2]Maryland (@62-52 over [w3]Denver) had solid home wins.

    
In the CBI, Santa Clara (86-@83 at Purdue, as 34p8a from pKevin Foster trumped 27p6a from pTerone Johnson) and Western Michigan (75-@67 at Wyoming) scored road wins to make the semifinals. After escaping 78-@77 at College of Charleston, George Mason won at home (@88-84[OT] vs Houston, as 29p from gSherrod Wright countered 24p17r from cTaShawn Thomas). Richmond won at Bryant (76-@71) but couldn't pull a second road win as Wright State advanced (@57-51).

    
In the CIT, Oral Roberts (84-@76 at Texas-Arlington), Air Force (69-@65 at Hawaii), Rider (63-@59 at Hartford) and Eastern Kentucky (69-@62 at Gardner-Webb) all posted first-round road wins. Weber State's @78-57 over Air Force is the most noteworthy result. Canisius won at Youngstown State (84-@82[OT]) to advance to the quarterfinals.

Led by the prowess of the A10, the Mid-Majors have had a bigger impact on this NCAAs, winning 11 32Splash games and placing 2 teams into the Sweet 16 -- (both double last year's totals); and it was at the expense of both the BCS schools (19,13 down from 22,14) and the 1BCs (only 2,1 down from 5,1 last year). 1BCs had better results in the NIT, posting 5 first-round wins. Purdue should have had its own way in CBI, but Santa Clara had other ideas; 1BCs make up the other 3 semifinalists. MM's (and the MVC, in particular) have dominated the mostly 1BC draw of CIT.

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Louisville's form is better than anyone else in the Midwest, look for the Cardinals to emerge from Indianapolis (past Duke, a winner over Michigan State). Ohio State's defense should be a shock to Arizona (after its first two 1BC opponents) and the Buckeyes should advance over Wichita State (which will end La Salle's run). Michigan is playing better ball in the tournament so far than Florida (which won't mind running with Florida Gulf Coast) and Kansas (who can't afford a lazy first half like in the first two rounds). Indiana's resilience will find a way past Syracuse and Miami(Florida) (a tight winner over Marquette).

    
Baylor should cruise to the final of the NIT, but the Virginia-Iowa/Maryland-Alabama winner won't go down easy. Santa Clara needs at least one more road win to take CBI. Can Weber State knock off two more MM opponents to win CIT? -- just maybe.

-- Ron

Key games this week:

NCAA

Thursday, Saturday:

NCAA EAST REGIONAL @ Washington,DC

• [E1]@Indiana v [E4]Syracuse
  
• [E2]Miami-FL v [E3]Marquette
  

NCAA WEST REGIONAL @ Los Angeles,CA

• [W2]@Ohio St v [W6]Arizona
  
• [W9]Wichita St v [W13b]La Salle
  

Friday, Sunday:

NCAA MIDWEST REGIONAL @ Indianapolis,IN

• [M1]@Louisville v [M12]Oregon
  
• [M2]Duke v [M3]Michigan St
  

NCAA SOUTH REGIONAL @ Arlington,TX

• [S1]@Kansas v [S4]Michigan
  
• [S3]Florida v [S15]FL Gulf Coast (FL)
  

Sat 6 Apr, Mon 8 Apr:

NCAA FINAL FOUR,NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP @ Atlanta,GA /GADOME/

• {[1/MIDWEST]} v {[4/WEST]}
  
• {[2/SOUTH]} v {[3/EAST]}
  

NIT

Tuesday:

Qtrs on-campus

• @ [w1]Alabama v [w2]Maryland
  

Wednesday:

Qtrs on-campus

• @ [e1]Virginia v [e3]Iowa
  
• @ [m2]Baylor v [m4]Providence
  
• @ [s1]So Mississippi v [s3]BYU
  

Tuesday week, Thursday week:

Semis, Finals @ New York,NY /MSG/

• {[w]/Alabama} v {[e]/Virginia}
  
• {[m]Baylor} v {[s]/So Mississippi}
  

CBI

Wednesday:

Semis on-campus (re-seeded)

• @ [eB1]Wright St v [mB1]Santa Clara
  
• @ [sB2]Geo Mason v [wB1]We Michigan
  

Monday week, Wednesday week, (if necessary: Friday week):

Finals on-campus (Best of 3)

CIT

Tuesday:

Qtrs on-campus

• @ E Carolina v Loyola-MD
  
• @ No Iowa v Bradley
  
• @ Canisius v Evansville
  

Wednesday:

Qtrs on-campus

• @ Weber St v Oral Roberts
  

?Saturday?:

Semis on-campus (re-seeded)

Wednesday week:

Final on-campus