09 Nov23 - The Unvarnished Truth

Volume XIV, No. 3 - 09 Nov 23 - [] Top 25 Ballot

The Unvarnished Truth

Try to imagine my reaction when I got a look at ESPN's College Basketball Encyclopedia. The promo teasers in their hoops broadcasts made it seem like a coffee-table book full of trivia anecdotes. Oh, no. It is aptly named. It's a complete reference book -- 1200 large pages of fine print -- featuring summaries on all 300+ teams (records from every season, highlights from the history of the program), complete draws for every NCAA tournament (including box scores from the Sweet 16 on). Unbelievable.
    I've hardly skimmed it so far, but I drool every time I open it up! -- Ron

It's turning out that this is much more of a rebuilding year all around in college basketball than might have been expected. No one seems to have a polished squad ready to dominate all comers at the start of the season. Even the super elite teams have already shown some vulnerability. Kansas was the strongest team from last year that returned with its starting five intact -- yet they were just a Sweet 16 squad a year ago. For all their depth and talent, they nearly fell to a scrambled squad from Memphis that was little more than a one-man gang. The Jayhawks barely escaped 57-55 in the double-header portion of the HALL OF FAME SHOWCASE as the Tigers' bEliott Williams (ex-Duke) had 21p6r0a and missed the game-winnner at the buzzer.
    Kentucky -- which has as talented a starting five as we've seen in a while -- needed a buzzer-beater from freshman pJohn Wall just to beat Miami(Ohio) at home @72-70. This squad is so gifted, it could be one of the all-time greats by year's end or come crashing down in one of the all-time great upsets in the tournament. Early on, there's not much defensive urgency -- they watched MU's bNick Winbush(26p6r) shoot 8-for-12 on three-pointers and then let Sam Houston State's gCorey Allmond(37p) shoot 11-for-16 on 3s in a @102-92 win.
    Michigan State, which is doing it with veteran players so far, got a major scare from surprising Gonzaga, surviving @75-71 at home. The 'Zags 7-0 cRobert Sacre and freshman 6-7 fElias Harris led the way with 17p apiece.

North Carolina and Villanova have opposite problems. UNC is overloaded with talent in the frontcourt and will try to get by with a bargain-bin backcourt, while Villanova is all guards and a couple of thin forwards trying to secure the paint. In college guards matter, so the Wildcats were still able to win the PUERTO RICO TIP-OFF over Dayton and Mississippi (although they needed a buzzer-beater from freshman 6-8 tIsaiah Armwood just to beat George Mason). Meanwhile, the Tar Heels nearly gave back a 19-point lead in the semis of COACHES VS CANCER against Ohio State (but held on to win 77-73); but then they were routed by host Syracuse in the final @87-71.
    Syracuse, which is more athletic in the paint than last year, thanks to Iowa State transfer fWesley Johnson(25p8r), is better than expected. But the Orange are a team that always looks good early (especially when they play 11 of 12 preseason games in the state of New York) and disappoints later. Duke looks typically great so far -- a little more height in the paint to let tKyle Singler float outside more comfortably; but it might once again be too tall/stiff to defend small/quick teams. Tennessee ran up 100 points twice in three games, but struggled to beat DePaul 57-53 in the semis of PARADISE JAM.

The Mid-Majors, which have some veteran squads, have been a disappointment early on. Butler hasn't lost, but it struggled to win at Evansville 64-@60. Siena looked awful against Northeastern (but managed to win @59-53), and then lost at Temple 69-@73. (Worse still: they're shooting terribly from three-point range -- 3-for-22 in those two games -- when that was the strength of their NCAA runs the past two years.) Dayton was up and down in PUERTO RICO: beating Georgia Tech 63-59, and coming back from 18-points down against Villanova on the one hand; going down by 18 against Villanova, and losing 75-83 to Kansas State on the other hand. Western Kentucky couldn't pull off the road win at LSU (losing 60-@71) and wound up hosting a consolation bracket instead of making the NIT TIP-OFF "FIRST FOUR". Northern Iowa couldn't handle DePaul (falling 52-60) in PARADISE JAM. VCU did manage to upset Oklahoma @82-69, spoiling coach Jeff Capel's return to his former school.

North Carolina State wound up being the only school (out of 10) to go 4-0 in the GLENN WILKES CLASSIC. (Surprising IUPUI from the Summit League claimed a share of 2nd place, while Auburn could claim no better than 4th.) Host South Carolina suffered a major loss when fDominique Archie went down with a knee injury, allowing Miami(Florida) to roll past them 85-@70 to claim the CHARLESTON crown.
    What a week for Northern Colorado: they start by beating host Hawaii 81-@75 in the final round-robin game of the RAINBOW CLASSIC to claim that crown; and they finish by beating host Air Force 70-@46 in the championship game of the ROGER MINTON CLASSIC -- talk about your Unwelcome Guests!

Sure enough, Iowa went 0-2 in its warmup games -- (losing @50-52 to Duquesne) -- but still faces Texas in the pre-set "semifinal" of the CBE CLASSIC on Monday. UTx should have no trouble rolling past the Hawkeyes and then Pittsburgh in the final on Tuesday.
    Tempo is everything when Purdue faces Tennessee on Monday in the final of PARADISE JAM. (Supposedly, it's easier to slow down a fast team than speed up a slow one.)
    Kentucky has no challengers in CANCUN (Tuesday, Wednesday).
    Gonzaga is the favorite, but there's good depth in the MAUI INVITATIONAL (Monday through Wednesday) with the likes of Arizona, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, Cincinnati and Maryland on hand.
    Neither Duke nor Connecticut should have trouble in their semifinals on Wednesday, so expect those two to meet in the final of the NIT SEASON TIP-OFF on Friday. (Don't expect Connecticut's backcourt to have enough poise to pull off the win.)
    Michigan State's semifinal with Florida (Friday) will be more of a challenge than the LEGENDS final (Saturday) against either Massachusetts or Rutgers. Likewise, Oklahoma has no competition in the 2x3 GREAT ALASKA SHOOTOUT (Wednesday through Saturday).
    Notre Dame should only break a sweat when it has to face Iowa State in the CHICAGO INVITATIONAL final on Saturday.
    Oklahoma State and Illinois should have a lively final in LAS VEGAS on Saturday. Ditto for Mississippi State and Missouri in SOUTH PADRE ISLAND (unless Old Dominion gets in the way).
    Most interesting will be to see whether Temple can follow up its win over Siena with victories over Virginia Tech (Friday) and St. John's (Saturday) to complete the job and win the PHILLY CLASSIC. (I doubt it.)
    After playing only non-Division I opponents so far, Michigan may not be prepared for the likes of Florida State, Xavier, Baylor, Creighton, Marquette or even Alabama in ORLANDO (Thursday through Sunday).
    It wouldn't be much of a surprise for any one of five teams to emerge as the champion in ANAHEIM. (West Virginia, Butler, Minnesota, Clemson and host UCLA are favored in that order, though.)

The Mountain West leads 2-1 on the Missouri Valley in their head-to-head CHALLENGE after Indiana State beat Colorado State @65-60 and UNLV beat Southern Illinois @78-69.
    The BIG 12/PAC-10 HARDWOOD SERIES gets going Sunday with USC hosting Nebraska. (Expect the Big 12 to dominate.)

Happy Thanksgiving, everybody!

-- Ron

Key games this week:

Monday:

PARADISE JAM Finals @ St. Thomas VI
- (Purdue-Tennessee, 3rd:DePaul-StJosephs, 5th:NoIowa-BostonCol, 7th:ECarolina-SDState),
COACHES VS CANCER Cons RndRob @ Miami FL
- (JamesMadison-{NCCentra}, @FLInternational-MurraySt),

Monday-Tuesday, Monday-Wednesday:

CBE CLASSIC Semis @ Kansas City MO; Cons RndRob @ CullowheeNC, RichmondKY;
- (Semis: Texas-Iowa, Pittsburgh-WichitaSt;
   A Cons: Duquesne, SUNYB, @WeCarolina, {ARMonticello};
   B Cons: FairleighDickinson, UCIrvine, @EaKentucky, TXSanAntonio),

Monday-Wednesday:

MAUI INVITATIONAL Qtrs @ Lahaina HI
- (Gonzaga-Colorado, Arizona-Wisconsin, Vanderbilt-Cincinnati, Maryland-@{Chaminade}),

Monday-Tuesday; Wednesday, Friday:

NIT SEASON TIP-OFF Cons RndRob @ BowlingGreenKY, HempsteadNY, FtWorthTX; Semis @ New York NY /MSG/
- (Semis: Duke-ArizonaSt, Connecticut-LSU;
   A Cons: @WeKentucky, IndianaSt, CalStNorthridge, CoCarolina;
   B Cons: @Hofstra, Charlotte, Yale, Elon;
   C Cons: @TCU, WIMilwaukee, Colgate, TexasSt),

Monday-Monday week:

HALL OF FAME SHOWCASE RndRob on-campus
- (A: Kansas, Memphis, CArkansas, Oakland, TennesseeTech;
   B:Louisville, Arkansas; AppalachianSt, ETennesseeSt, MorganSt),

Tuesday:

@California-Jacksonville, @Florida-FloridaSt(FL),

Tuesday-Wednesday:

CANCUN CHALLENGE @ Cancun,MEXICO
- (A:Kentucky, ClevelandSt, Rider, SamHoustonSt;
   B:Virginia, Stanford, OralRoberts, FloridaA&M),

Tuesday, Friday-Saturday:

CHICAGO INVITATIONAL CHALLENGE RndRob on-campus, 3rd/Semis @ Chicago IL
- (A: NotreDame, @Northwestern, Liberty, KennesawSt;
   B: IowaSt, StLouis, TennesseeSt, MSValley),
LAS VEGAS-THANKSGIVING INVITATIONAL RndRob on-campus; 3rd/Semis @ Las Vegas,NV /OHA/
- (A:OklahomaSt, Utah, Southern, {Seattle};
   B:Illinois, Bradley, Wofford, {Presbyterian}),
PHILLY CLASSIC RndRob on-campus, @ Philadelphia PA /Palestra/
- (@Temple, Siena, VirginiaTech, StJohns),
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND INVITATIONAL RndRob on-campus; 3rd/Semis @ South Padre Island,TX
- (A: @MississippiSt, @Richmond, Longwood, BethuneCookman;
   B: @OldDominion, @Missouri, Chattanooga, @TXPanAmerican),

Wednesday:

Northeastern-@BostonU(BostonMA),

Wednesday-Saturday:

GREAT ALASKA SHOOTOUT RndRob, Finals @ Anchorage AK
- (A: Oklahoma, Houston, SanDiego;
   B: WashingtonSt, NichollsSt, @{AKAnchorage}),

Thursday-Friday, Sunday:

ORLANDO CLASSIC @ Orlando FL
- (Michigan-Creighton, Marquette-Xavier, @FloridaSt-Iona, Baylor-Alabama),
ANAHEIM CLASSIC @ Anaheim CA
- (WVirginia-LongBeachSt, Butler-Minnesota, Clemson-TexasA&M, @UCLA-Portland),

Friday:

@Tennessee-ColOfCharleston, @BYU-WeberSt(UT),

Friday-Saturday; Friday-Sunday:

LEGENDS CLASSIC Semis @ Atlantic CityNJ; Cons @ PhiladelphiaPA, StatesboroGA
- (Semis:MichiganSt-Florida, Rutgers-Massachusetts;
   A Cons: Valparaiso, Troy, @GeorgiaSo, {ARFtSmith};
   B Cons: Toledo, @Drexel, Vermont, Cornell),

Saturday:

@Villanova-LaSalle(PhiladelphiaPA)(BIG5),

Sunday:

@NCarolina-Nevada,

Sunday-Tue 22 Dec:

BIG 12/PAC-10 HARDWOOD SERIES on-campus; (USC and Washington play twice); PAC-10 leads 1-0,1
- (Sun: @USC-Nebraska;
   Thu 3 Dec: @Texas-USC, @TexasTech-Washington, @ArizonaSt-Baylor;
   Fri 4 Dec: @OregonSt-Colorado;
   Sat 5 Dec: @California-IowaSt, @KansasSt-WashingtonSt, @Missouri-Oregon;
   Sun 6 Dec: @UCLA-Kansas, @Oklahoma-Arizona;
   Wed 16 Dec: @Stanford-OklahomaSt;
   Tue 22 Dec: @Washington-TexasA&M.

---

Top 25 - 09 Nov 23 - [] Column

1. Kansas (3-0)
2. Kentucky (4-0)
3. Michigan State (3-0)
4. Syracuse (4-0) [2v2v CVC]
5. Villanova (5-0) [3:PUERTO RICO]
6. Texas (3-0)
7. Duke (4-0)
8. Purdue (3-0)
9. North Carolina (3-1)
10. Ohio State (3-1)
11. Notre Dame (4-0)
12. Connecticut (3-0)
13. Michigan
14. West Virginia (1-0)
15. Louisville (3-0)
16. Gonzaga (2-1)
17. Memphis (2-1)
18. Butler (3-0)
19. Tennessee (4-0)
20. Minnesota (3-0)
21. Oklahoma State (92-0)
22. Illinois (1-0)
23. Kansas State (4-1)
24. Temple (2-1)
25. Brigham Young (3-0)

Honorable Mention:

Virginia Commonwealth (2-1), Louisiana State (3-0), North Carolina State (4-0) [10RR4:WILKES], Miami(Florida) (5-0) [3@CHARLESTON], Northern Colorado (5-0) [RR3@RAINBOW] [2@MINTON].