10 Mar 8 - Greivis Offense (PRETOURNAMENT)

Volume XIV, No. 18 - 10 Mar 8: PRETOURNAMENT - [] FINAL TOP 25 BALLOT

Greivis Offense

On pure paper ratings, the top four teams (Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Duke) stand quite apart from the rest of the college basketball scene. KU, 'Cuse and UK all won their conferences with gap margins; but Duke (which actually has the biggest gap in ratings between itself and the rest of its conferencemates) couldn't do it. After having blown out Maryland at home (@77-56), the Blue Devils fell on the road against the Terrapins, 72-@79, as 6-6 pGreivis Vasquez had 20p5a5to for UMd and bKyle Singler was held to 14p5r for DU. (After an unimpressive 6-4 start, UMd is 15-3 since and pVasquez is pushing for first team All-America.) It's not this loss, but a weird road loss at N.C. State that cost Duke the outright title -- but the emergence of cBrian Zoubek since then has shorn up their earlier vulnerability in the paint. The race for the fourth #1 seed for the NCAA tournament is still Duke-OhioState/Purdue-WestVirginia/Villanova, all things being equal; but the outcome of the conference tournaments could shuffle those spots.
    With nothing on the line, Syracuse fell at Louisville, 68-@78, in the final game played at Freedom Hall. Kentucky cruised home with a win over Florida @74-66.
    Just when there was crazy talk that Kansas State might jump up to a #1-seed, Kansas put an end to that, pounding the Wildcats @82-65 as bXavier Henry(19p5r) led four KU players in double-figures -- 21p from gDenis Clemente and 20p5r from bJacob Pullen weren't enough for KSU. For good measure, the Jayhawks thrashed Missouri in Columbia (where the Tigers rarely lose to anyone), 77-@56, as five KU players were in double-figures and UMo shot 3-for-22 on three-pointers. Gotta love a team that delivers its best even when nothing is on the line for them.

Purdue won its remaining two games (vs Indiana, at Penn State) to claim a share of the BIG 10 regular season title; they may even be able to pull off winning the conference tournament playing in front of a supportive Indianapolis crowd. (But don't mistake that short-term resolve for believing they aren't much the worse team without tRobbie Hummel.) Wisconsin closed the regular season with a road blowout at Illinois ... and those two get the pleasure of facing each other again on Friday in the quarters of the BIG 10 tournament in Indianapolis.
    West Virginia returned to Top-10 form with wins over Georgetown, @81-68, and at Villanova, 68-@66(OT), as bDa'Sean Butler had 26p6a6r and 21p10r, respectively. The Mountaineers earned a double-bye for the Big East tournament to boot. cLuke Harangody(5p2r) is back on court for Notre Dame -- can they maintain their elevated play with him in the mix? (fCarleton Scott and fTyrone Nash flourished in his absence.)
    Finishing second in the SEC East was a big deal -- Vanderbilt won at Florida, 64-@60, to earn the first-round bye in the conference tournament (in Nashville) and a second-round matchup against Arkansas/Georgia. Meanwhile, both Tennessee(LSU,Mississippi) and Florida(Auburn,Mississippi State) have to play first-round games and they each have tough second-round opponents waiting as well.

North Carolina won the 2000th game in the program's history, @69-62 over Miami(Florida). (Kentucky beat them to it early this year.) That'll have to serve as the highlight of the season for 16-15 UNC, as Duke blew them out @82-50.

Hosting the CONFERENCE USA tournament made veteran Tulsa seem like a lock for the NCAAs at the beginning of the year, but they've faded to a first-day #5 seed and won't likely win the tourney (or get an NCAA bid). Without the dominance of Memphis overshadowing everyone else, the league should get multiple bids this year, though.

Wichita State probably didn't do enough with a 65-61 squeak semifinal win over Illinois State and then letting the close MVC final turn into a blowout at the end (52-67) -- that made Northern Iowa's three-game gap seem legit. UNI isn't pretty to look at -- they're a plodding, defense-oriented team -- but their second straight TiTo performance in the quality MVC makes them a team no one wants to play in the NCAAs.

Kent State won convincingly in the MAC showdown at Akron, 74-@61, behind 23p9r from fAnthony Simpson to claim the regular season title (and an NIT bid). (Expect the same result on Saturday when those two should meet again in Cleveland in the conference tournament final.)
    Murray State completed a TiTo season in the OVC with a scrappy 62-51 win over rival Morehead State in the tourney final.
    28-6 Coastal Carolina dominated the BIG SOUTH regular season, winning with a two-game gap, but they split head-to-head with both second-place Radford and third-place Winthrop. Still, you had to like their chances playing all their conference tournament games at home. Guess again. Instead, it was 19-13 Winthrop (including six wins against non-Division I opponents and a 20-point BRACKETBUSTER loss at Eastern Kentucky) winning its 9th Big South tournament in the past 11 years, 64-@53.
    Sure enough, Jacksonville, which blew a chance at the outright regular season title last week, fell in the ATLANTIC SUN semifinals to host Mercer, 63-@66. All four quad-champs fell before the final -- the NCAA bid goes to East Tennessee State (for the second straight year), the NIT bid goes to top seed Lipscomb, and 19-12 JU will likely stay home for the postseason. Ugh.
    Hats off to {South Dakota}, which won the inaugural GREAT WEST basketball title (with a two-game gap over {Houston Baptist}. (Remember, the conference champion won't receive an NCAA bid, but an automatic bid to the CIT, instead.)

Gaps in the final conference standings for the BCS and MM conferences give an idea of which teams are locks for at-large NCAA bids:

• BIG EAST(7) - Syracuse + (lock: West Virginia, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Louisville, Georgetown, Notre Dame; not: South Florida, Seton Hall, Connecticut, Cincinnati)
• BIG 12(6) - Kansas + (lock: Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma State)
• BIG 10(3) - Purdue/Ohio State/Michigan State + (lock: Wisconsin; not: Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern)
• MWC(3) - New Mexico + (lock: BYU, UNLV, San Diego State)
• SEC(2) - Kentucky + (lock: Vanderbilt, Tennessee; not: Misissippi, Mississippi State, Florida)
• A-10(2) - Temple/Xavier + (lock: Richmond; not: St. Louis, Rhode Island, Charlotte, Dayton)
• ACC(1) - Duke/Maryland + (not: Florida State, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech)
• C-USA(1) - UTEP + (lock: Memphis; not: UAB, Marshall, Tulsa)
• WCC(1) - Gonzaga + (lock: St. Mary's; not: Portland)
• HORIZON(0) - Butler + (not: Wright State)
• MVC(0) - Northern Iowa + (not: Wichita State, Illinois State)
• PAC-10(0) - California + (not: Arizona State, Washington, Arizona)
• WAC(0) - Utah State + (not: Nevada, New Mexico State, Louisiana Tech)
• COLONIAL(0) - Old Dominion + (not: Northeastern, William & Mary, George Mason, VCU, Drexel)

That "natural cut" only yields 26 at-large bids. 8 fluid bubble spots is a lot at this stage. Right now, I'd fill those slots with Clemson, Virginia Tech, Illinois, San Diego State, UAB, Florida/MississipiState, Florida State and Wichita State.

California's first conference title in 50 years won't mean as much if they don't win the Pac-10 title; they'd be in the mix for an at-large if they don't win it, but they're no lock by any means.

-- Ron

P.S. Look for the official Hoops Contest invite Sunday overnight!!!

Key games this week:

Monday:

WCC TOURNAMENT Final @ Las Vegas NV /OHA/
- ([1]Gonzaga-[2]StMarys),
MAAC TOURNAMENT Final @ Albany NY /Siena/
- (@[1]Siena-[2]Fairfield),
COLONIAL TOURNAMENT Final @ Richmond VA /VCU/
- ([1]@OldDominion-[3a]@William&Mary(VA)),
SOCON TOURNAMENT Final @ Charlotte NC
- ([1S]Wofford-[1N]@AppalachianSt),

Monday-Tuesday:

SUN BELT TOURNAMENT Semis,Final @ Hot Springs AR
- ([E1a/1a]Troy-[4]WeKentucky, [W1/1b]NTexas-[6a]Denver),
SUMMIT TOURNAMENT Semis,Final @ Sioux Falls SD
- ([1]Oakland, [2]IUPUI-[3]OralRoberts),

Tuesday:

HORIZON TOURNAMENT Final on-campus
- (@[1]Butler-[2]WrightSt),

Tuesday-Wednesday:

BIG SKY TOURNAMENT Semis,Final @ #1-seed[Weber St/OgdenUT]
- (@[1]WeberSt, [2]NoColorado-[3b]Montana),

Tuesday-Saturday:

BIG EAST TOURNAMENT @ New York NY /MSG/
- (Tue 1st/32s: [9a]SFlorida-[16]DePaul, [9b]SetonHall-[15]Providence, [11a]Cincinnati-[14]Rutgers, [11b]Connecticut-@[13]StJohns;
   Wed 2nd/16s: [5a]Marquette-([11b]Connecticut), [5b]Louisville-([11a]Cincinnati), [7a]NotreDame-([9b]SetonHall), [7b]Georgetown-([9a]SFlorida);
   Thu 3rd/Qtrs: [1]@Syracuse-([7b]Georgetown), [2a]Pittsburgh-([7a]NotreDame), [2b]WVirginia-([5b]Louisville), [2c]Villanova-([5a]Marquette)),
MEAC TOURNAMENT @ Winston-Salem NC /{Winston-Salem St}/
- ([1]MorganSt),

Tuesday, Friday-Sunday:

A-10 TOURNAMENT on-campus, @ Atlantic City NJ
- (Tue on-campus 1st/16s: @[5a]RhodeIsland-[11b]StJosephs, @[5b]Charlotte-[11a]Massachusetts, @[7]Dayton-[10]GeoWashington, @[8a]StBonaventure-[8b]Duquesne;
   Fri @AtlCtyNJ 2nd/Qtrs: [1a]Temple-([8a]StBonaventure), [2]Xavier-([7]Dayton(OH)), [3]Richmond-([5b]Charlotte), [4]StLouis-([5a]RhodeIsland)),

Wednesday:

NEC TOURNAMENT Final on-campus
- (@[1a]Quinnipiac-[1b]RobertMorris),

Wednesday-Thursday, Saturday:

SOUTHLAND TOURNAMENT @ Katy TX
- ([W1/1]@SamHoustonSt),

Wednesday, Friday-Saturday:

GREAT WEST TOURNAMENT @ Orem UT /UT Valley/
- ([1]{SDakota}, [2]{HoustonBaptist}, @[3b]UTValley),

Wednesday-Saturday:

BIG 12 TOURNAMENT @ Kansas City MO
- (Wed 1st/16s: [5]@Missouri-[12]Nebraska, [6a]Texas-[9c]IowaSt, [6b]OklahomaSt-[9b]Oklahoma(OK), [8]Colorado-[9a]TexasTech;
   Thu 2nd/Qtrs: [1]@Kansas-([8]Colorado), [2a]@KansasSt-([6b]OklahomaSt), [2b]Baylor-([6a]Texas(TX)), [2c]TexasA&M-([5]@Missouri)),
MWC TOURNAMENT @ Las Vegas NV /UNLV/
- (Wed 1st/16s: [8]Wyoming-[9]AirForce;
   Thu 2nd/Qtrs: [1]NewMexico-([8]Wyoming), [2]BYU-[7]TCU, @[3a]UNLV-[5b]Utah, [3b]SanDiegoSt-[5a]ColoradoSt),
C-USA TOURNAMENT @ Tulsa OK /Tulsa/
- (Wed 1st/16s: @[5]Tulsa-[12]Rice, [6]SoMississippi-[11]Tulane, [7a]Houston-[10]ECarolina, [7b]SMU-[9]CFlorida;
   Thu 2nd/Qtrs: [1]UTEP-([7b]SMU(TX)), [2]Memphis-([7a]Houston), [3a]UAB-([6]SoMississippi), [3b]Marshall-(@[5]Tulsa)),
PAC-10 TOURNAMENT @ Los Angeles CA
- (Wed 1st/16s: [5a]USC ineligible, [8b]Oregon-[10]WashingtonSt;
   Thu 2nd/Qtrs: [1]@California-([8b]Oregon), [2]ArizonaSt-[8a]@Stanford, [3]Washington-[5c]OregonSt, [4]Arizona-@[5b]UCLA)),
BIG WEST TOURNAMENT @ Anaheim CA
- ([1a]UCSantaBarbara, [1b]Pacific),
SWAC TOURNAMENT @ Shreveport LA
- ([1]JacksonSt),

Thursday-Saturday:

WAC TOURNAMENT @ Reno NV /Nevada/
- ([1]UtahSt, @[2a]Nevada, [2b]NewMexicoSt, [4]LouisianaTech),
MAC TOURNAMENT Qtrs-Final @ Cleveland OH
- (Thu 2nd/Qtrs: [E1/1]@Kent St, [3]@Akron),

Thursday-Sunday:

SEC TOURNAMENT @ Nashville TN /Vanderbilt/
- (Thu 1st/16s: [E3]@Tennessee-[W6]LSU, [W3]Arkansas-[E6]Georgia, [E4]Florida-[W4b]Auburn, [W4a]Alabama-[E5]SCarolina;
   Fri 2nd/Qtrs: [E1]Kentucky-([W4a]Alabama), [W1a]MississippiSt-([E4]Florida), @[E2]Vanderbilt-([W3]Arkansas), [W1b]Mississippi-([E3]@Tennessee)),
ACC TOURNAMENT @ Greensboro NC
- (Thu 1st/16s: [5a]@WakeForest-[12]MiamiFL, [5b]Clemson-@[9c]NCState, [7]GeorgiaTech-@[10]NCarolina, [8]BostonCol-[9a]Virginia;
   Fri 2nd/Qtrs: [1a]@Duke-([8]BostonCol), [1b]Maryland-([7]GeorgiaTech), [3a]FloridaSt-([5b]Clemson), [3b]VirginiaTech-([5a]@WakeForest)),
BIG 10 TOURNAMENT @ Indianapolis IN
- (Thu 1st/16s: [6]Minnesota-[11]PennSt, [7a]Northwestern-@[9b]Indiana, [7b]Michigan-[9a]Iowa;
   Fri 2nd/Qtrs: [1a]OhioSt-([7b]Michigan), [1b]@Purdue-([7a]Northwestern), [1c]MichiganSt-([6]Minnesota), [4]Wisconsin-[5]Illinois),

Friday:

PATRIOT TOURNAMENT Final on-campus
- (@[1]Lehigh-[3]Lafayette(PA)),

Saturday:

@{WinstonSalemSt}-{NCCentral}(NC),
AMERICA EAST TOURNAMENT Final on-campus
- (@[2]Vermont-[4]BostonU),

Sunday:

(NCAA TOURNAMENT BRACKET SELECTION),
(NIT BRACKET SELECTION),
(CBI BRACKET SELECTION),
(CIT BRACKET SELECTION).

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FINAL TOP 25 - 10 Mar 8: PRETOURNAMENT - [] Column

1. Kansas (29-2) BIG 12+4
2. Syracuse (28-3) BIG E+2
3. Kentucky (29-2) SEC+2
4. Duke (26-5) coACC+3
5. Purdue (25-4) triBIG 10
6. West Virginia (24-6)
7. Ohio State (23-7) triBIG 10
8. Villanova (24-6)
9. Kansas State (23-6)
10. Wisconsin (23-7)
11. Michigan State (23-7) triBIG 10
12. Pittsburgh (24-7)
13. Vanderbilt (22-7)
14. Tennessee (23-7)
15. Georgetown (20-9)
16. Gonzaga (24-5) WCC
17. Butler (27-4) HORIZ(u)+6
18. New Mexico (28-3) MWC
19. Maryland (21-7) coACC+3
20. Baylor (23-6)
21. Texas A&M (20-8)
22. Temple (26-5) coA-10
23. Xavier (23-7) coA-10
24. Brigham Young (27-4)
25. Northern Iowa (27-4) MVC+3(TiTo)

Honorable Mention:

Texas-El Paso (24-5) C-USA+2, Utah State (23-6) WAC+3, Siena (26-6) MAAC+4, Cornell (24-4) IVY+2, Sam Houston State (18-7) SLAND+3, Murray State (25-4) OVC+2(TiTo), Winthrop (13-13) (@BIG S), Morgan State (22-9) MEAC+4, {South Dakota} (10-9) GREAT W+2.