08 Mar 3 - The Gap

Volume XII, No. 18 - 08 Mar 3 - [] Top 25 Ballot

The Gap

Tennessee's reign at #1 (in the nation and in the state) didn't last long. They fell at Vanderbilt 69-@72. The Commodores jumped out to a 10-3 lead right away as they were sky-high and the Volunteers were emotionally spent from the previous weekend. The Vols did put together a run and briefly took a 36-34 lead at the start of the second half, but the 'Dores brought home the victory behind 32p0a5r;6/9 3s from bShan Foster (overcoming 25p0a6r;6/15 3s from bChris Lofton). UTn even stuggled at home against Kentucky (playing without fPatrick Patterson -- out for the season with an ankle injury), @63-60. They may not hang onto a #1-seed, but a #2-seed and the chance to stay in the Charlotte Regional can still happen if they win out from here.

In every major conference there is a significant Gap in the standings separating the elite teams from the rest of the pack (and in some cases there's even a second Gap separating the decent from the struggling). If the standings were smoother, it might be easier to determine the cutoff point for at-large bids. As it is this season, the Selection Committee will have to weigh jumping the Gap in a major conference against going smoothly down the standings in a mid-major. (The good news for the mid-majors is that, if the BCS standings had been smoother this year, the MMs would have been practically shut out.)

UCLA turned in two more solid road wins, 70-@49 at Arizona State and 68-@66 at Arizona (behind cKevin Love's 24p15r). The Bruins can't shake Stanford in the Pac-10 standings, though. (Those two face off on Thursday night with the Cardinal having the chance to tie for the league lead.) Stanford's gap over third-place Washington State is a whopping four games now after rallying to beat the Cougars @60-53 (thanks to 25p6r from fBrook Lopez). The thing is, WSU is very solid; but SU's one-man gang has had the answers all season long.

In the Big East, Louisville, Georgetown, Connecticut and Notre Dame have opened up a two-game gap in the standings. (It fits nicely with the four first-round byes that go along with the conference tournament, actually.) Below them, there's a smooth transition from fifth (Marquette) down to eleventh (Villanova-Seton Hall-Syracuse) -- that's good news for those teams hoping to get an at-large. (The Cardinals visit the Hoyas on Saturday with first place on the line with the loser eliminated from any shot at staying "home" in the Charlotte Regional in the NCAAs.)

Texas and Kansas have opened up a two-game gap over Baylor and Kansas State. KSU had a rough week, losing @65-74 to Texas (as tBill Walker shot 0-for-14 for 1 point) and 74-@88 at Kansas. Both of those clubs are safely in, but the gap does no favors for slumping Oklahoma. In the Big 10, Purdue, Wisconsin and Indiana are two-games up on Michigan State. But despite their 42-@57 loss to the Badgers, the Spartans' @103-74 pasting of the Hoosiers should keep them in good standing. (Was IU's collapse a one-time thing in a difficult road environment, or was it The Beginning of the End for a team that could unravel now that it has lost its coach?) Michigan State is itself three games up on Minnesota and Ohio State, who may be on the outside looking in on Selection Sunday.

North Carolina and Duke meet for Round 2 of the "ACC Game of the Year" on Saturday. Both are tied atop the standings with a three-game gap up on everyone else. It's good for those two, both of whom have a shot at a #1-seed; but the gap is bad news for the league overall in terms of getting multiple bids. Clemson, which came back from 20 points down to beat Maryland 73-@70, has done enough to warrant a bid. Beyond that, no other team has distinguished itself. Teams like Virginia Tech and Maryland have very little margin for error from here on out.

Memphis' three-game gap in Conference USA is to be expected. UAB and Houston have turned in solid seasons in the Tigers' wake. Both teams should be in. (If not, the "Pro Scout Showcase" has already begun: the Cougars' pRobert McIver had 52p5a against Southern Mississippi, while the Blazers' bRobert Vaden had 41p3a6r at UTEP.)

Xavier has played so well in conference that it's four-game gap probably hurts the rest of the Atlantic 10 teams. The likes of St. Joseph's, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Dayton don't really have much of a case over Temple, Richmond, La Salle, Charlotte, St. Louis and Duquesne because of the muddiness of the standings below the Gap.

BYU and UNLV are two games up on New Mexico -- the gap will likely do in the Lobos. Drake's two-game gap over Illinois State and Creighton has made it hard for those teams to get noticed. Butler (which was two games down at one point) finished with a four-game gap in the Horizon -- bad news for Cleveland State and Wright State. VCU finished three games up on George Mason and UNC-Wilmington.

While gaps in the BCS standings are good news for the mid-majors hoping for at-large bids, gaps in the MM standings create the disastrous potential for anti-spoilage. Davidson finished the Southern Conference a perfect 20-0, with a seven-game gap on second place. (I can't recall a wider margin of victory in the regular season standings.) Should they falter in the SoCon tournament, however, an "undeserving" team will snatch away an at-large bid that will have to be used on the Wildcats. Drake and Butler have similar scenarios; but as long as either Gonzaga or St. Mary's wins the WCC, no one will be the worse. In the MAC (Kent State, Akron and Ohio University) and Sun Belt (South Alabama and Western Kentucky), some very good teams figure to miss out because they'll be 1BC, for sure.

Cornell clinched the Ivy League title -- the first time it didn't go to Penn or Princeton in 20 years. UNC-Asheville (with 7-7 cKenny George) completed the sweep of Winthrop 63-@50 to clinch the Big South title (but don't expect the Bulldogs to be able to pull of a first-round splash upset like the Eagles did last year). Robert Morris (NEC) and Portland State (Big Sky) won their conferences by three-game gaps.

It's conference tournament time for all of the 1BC leagues (except the Southland, MEAC and SWAC). Expect Gonzaga and St. Mary's to meet in the WCC final (next Monday). Drake has only had Desperation Trail losses inside the MVC so far. We'll find out Sunday if they can take the conference tourney as well. Butler has "dominated" the Horizon, but many of its games have been close. They're no automatic lock to win it, but we'll have to wait until Tuesday week to find out if they're anti-spoilers. VCU and Davidson absolutely must win their tournaments (both finals on Monday week) for the sake of the draw. Siena earned the top seed in the Metro Atlantic tournament, but Rider and Niagara could easily win it (and any one of those three could spring a first-round splash upset in the NCAAs).

-- Ron

Key games this week:

Monday:

@Kansas-TexasTech, @WVirginia-Pittsburgh,

Tuesday:

@Texas-Nebraska, Purdue-@OhioSt, @NewMexico-UNLV, @KentSt-Miami-OH(OH), @Mississippi-Arkansas, @OhioU-Akron(OH),

Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday:

BIG SOUTH TOURNAMENT on-campus
(@[1]UNC-Asheville, [2]Winthrop, [3]High Point),

Tuesday, Friday-Saturday:

OVC TOURNAMENT on-campus, @ Nashville TN (Tennessee State)
([1]Austin Peay),

Tuesday, Friday-Saturday, Tuesday week:

HORIZON TOURNAMENT on-campus, @ #1-seed(Butler), on-campus
(Tue (1st/16s on-campus): @[3]WrightSt,
Fri (Qtrs @ #1-seed(Butler),
Sat (Semis @ #1-seed(Butler): @[1]Butler, [2]ClevelandSt),

Wednesday:

Tennessee-@Florida, @Vanderbilt-MississippiSt, @Baylor-TexasA&M(TX), @OklahomaSt-Oklahoma(OK),

Wednesday-Saturday:

A-SUN TOURNAMENT @ Nashville TN (Lipscomb)
(Wed (1st/Qtrs): @[1]Belmont-[8]Campbell, [2]Jacksonville-[7]Mercer,
Thu (1st/Qtrs): [3]Stetson-[6]GardnerWebb, [4]ETennesseeSt-@[5]Lipscomb),

Wednesday, Sunday-Tuesday week:

SUN BELT TOURNAMENT on-campus, @ Mobile AL (South Alabama)
(Wed (1st/16s on-campus):
Sun: (Qtrs @ MobileAL /South Alabama/): @[1/E1]SAlabama, [2/W1]ARLittleRock, [3]WeKentucky),

Thursday:

@UCLA-Stanford(CA), Xavier-@StJosephs, @USC-California, @Oregon-ArizonaSt, @CalStNorthridge-UCSantaBarbara(CA), @BoiseSt-UtahSt,

Thursday-Sunday:

MVC TOURNAMENT @ St. Louis MO
(Thu (1st/16s): @[7]MissouriSt-[10]Evansville, [8]IndianaSt-[9]WichitaSt,
Fri (Qtrs): [1]Drake-[8/9], [2]IllinoisSt-[7/10], [3]SoIllinois-[6]NoIowa, [4]Creighton-[5]Bradley),

Friday-Monday:

WCC TOURNAMENT @ San Diego CA (San Diego)
(Fri (1st/16s),
Sat (Qtrs): @[3]SanDiego,
Sun (Semis): [1]Gonzaga, [2]StMarys),
SOCON TOURNAMENT @ Charleston SC
(Fri (1st/16s),
Sat: (Qtrs): [1]Davidson, [2]Chattanooga, [3]GeorgiaSo, [4]AppalachianSt-[5]UNCGreensboro),
COLONIAL TOURNAMENT @ Richmond, VA (VCU)
(Fri (1st/16s): @[5]William&Mary-[12]GeorgiaSt, [6]Northeastern-@[11]JamesMadison, [7]Delaware-[10]Drexel, [8]Hofstra-[9]Towson,
Sat (Qtrs): @[1]VCU-[8/9], [2]UNCWilmington-[7/10], @[3]GeoMason-[6/11], @[4]OldDominion-[5/12]),
MAAC TOURNAMENT at Albany NY
(Fri (1st/16s),
Sat (Qtrs): @[1]Siena, [2]Rider, @[3]Niagara-@[6]Marist, [4]LoyolaMD-[5]Fairfield),

Saturday:

@Memphis-UAB, NCarolina-@Duke(NC), Kansas-@TexasA&M, Stanford-@USC(CA), Louisville-@Georgetown, @WashingtonSt-Washington(WA), Marquette-@Syracuse, @Oregon-Arizona, @TexasTech-Baylor(TX), @Dayton-StJosephs,

Sunday:

MichiganSt-@OhioSt, @Akron-KentSt(OH), @Kentucky-Florida.

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Top 25 - 08 Mar 3 - [] Column

1. UCLA (25-3)
2. Memphis (28-1)
3. North Carolina (27-2)
4. Tennessee (25-3)
5. Duke (24-3)
6. Kansas (25-3)
7. Stanford (24-4)
8. Wisconsin (24-4)
9. Texas (23-5)
10. Louisville (24-6)
11. Georgetown (24-4)
12. Xavier (25-4)
13. Washington State (22-7)
14. Connecticut (23-6)
15. Notre Dame (21-6)
16. Michigan State (23-6)
17. Indiana (23-5)
18. Purdue (23-6)
19. Marquette (19-7)
20. Vanderbilt (24-5)
21. Gonzaga (23-6)
22. BYU (23-6)
23. Drake (22-4)
24. Butler (26-3)
25. Davidson (21-6)

Honorable Mention:

Texas Tech (15-12), Missouri State (16-15), Arkansas (19-9), Bowling Green (13-14), Robert Morris (25-6), Cornell (18-5), Portland State (18-9), UNC-Asheville (17-8).