07Feb5 - Reversal Of Fortune (MIDCONFERENCE)

Volume XI, No. 14 - 07 Feb 5: MIDCONFERENCE - [] Top 25 Ballot

Reversal Of Fortune

Except for the Ivy League (where there's no conference tournament), everyone has reached the halfway point in the regular season race. (In the Ivies, Yale beat Penn @77-68 to get out to an early lead at 5-1.) Some key teams that had a strong preseason have stumbled mightily in conference play while others who made no impression early on have now turned their seasons around completely.

In the ACC, North Carolina State put together two big home wins: first, @70-59 over Virginia Tech; then, @83-79 over top-ranked North Carolina. The Tar Heels weren't in control of the game and played from behind the entire time. Worse, they aren't in control of the league race, either. At the break, four teams were tied at 6-2: UNC, Boston College, Virginia and Virginia Tech. The unbalanced ACC schedule is partially responsible for such topsy-turvy standings, but Duke lost twice last week (66-@68(OT) at Virginia after gSean Singletary's game-winner, and @67-68 to Florida State as the Seminoles won for the first time ever in Durham); and Clemson, which started 17-0, has lost five of six games and was only 4-4 at the turn. VaTech and UVa have earned their position with big wins over UNC and Duke, to be sure, but it doesn't help that a team like Maryland, which had a strong preseason winning the COLLEGE HOOPS CLASSIC, could only manage a 3-5 start in league play. BC, lost its shot-blocker cSean Williams and keeps on winning despite that behind the stellar season being turned in by fJared Dudley (30p13r in their @80-59 win over VaTech).

Even more upside-down is the SEC. Florida cruised through the first half at 8-0, but that's where the form stops. LSU came in last place at 2-6, Tennessee (due mostly to gChris Lofton's being out with an ankle injury) is only 3-5, and Alabama just managed to be .500 at 4-4. Instead, "Old Reliable" Kentucky, which had seemed to be going through an off year without a star talent leading the way, came second overall at 6-2. Have they gotten better, or did the league come back to them? (Probably the latter, actually.) Upstarts Vanderbilt (5-3) and Georgia (5-3) had a surprising first half. Arkansas had some flashy wins, but was only 3-5 at the turn when all was said and done.

Texas A&M closed the game with a 17-4 run keyed by pAcie Law(23p7a) to take a 69-@66 win over Kansas and claim the Big 12 lead outright at 7-1. The Jayhawks are in a three-way tie for second with young Texas and forgotten Kansas State. Remember, KSU won the LAS VEGAS CHRISTMAS CLASSIC (beating USC along the way), but after losing freshman star fBilly Walker to a knee injury, expectations were dashed for this season. Credit the easier "North Division" schedule and a 73-@72 Wildcat win at Texas thanks to gCartier Martin(27p)'s game-winning three-pointer and look who's 6-2 as well. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State has won thrillers at home while getting pounded on the road (including a sorry 77-@89 loss at 6-13 Colorado) to stumble through at 4-3 after such a strong preseason. The good news for KU and KSU is that the Oklahoma/Texas "South Division" schools have to play each other twice (so don't hand the title to the Aggies just yet).

Indiana knocked off Wisconsin, @71-66, dropping the Badgers into a first-place tie with Ohio State at 7-1 at the midway point (and maybe also jeopardizing a #1-seed for UW and possibly Player of the Year for fAlando Tucker, who needs the "league champion" moniker to make his case against the stellar numbers being put up by UTx's tKevin Durant). OSU gets to host Round Two of the Big 10 Showdown at the end of February. Indiana is third at 6-2, but tied for fourth at 4-4 is plucky Iowa. The Hawkeyes are basically a two-man gang with only bAdam Haluska left over from last year's champion squad, but he's got a great new tandem partner in freshman point-forward fTyler Smith. Haluska couldn't find his shot for most of the preseason, but he just dropped 33p in Iowa's @81-75 win over Indiana. No-name Illinois has spun out at 3-5.

In the Big East, form has been more the norm as Pittsburgh, Marquette and Georgetown are at the top. Notre Dame's 6-2 first half might have even been better had it not lost gKyle McAlarney (who was expelled from school). The power vacuum left by last year's powers Syracuse (4-4), Villanova (4-4) and Connecticut (3-5) has been filled by revamped West Virginia (5-3) and even Louisville (5-3) has finally been able to be a factor in its new conference.

Already into the second half, UCLA took control of the Pac-10 with a firm beatdown of Oregon, @69-57. The Ducks fell again to surging USC, 68-@71. Meanwhile, Washington State tied the Trojans for second place, thanks to a 72-@66 road win at Arizona. Stanford crushed Cal the second time around, 90-@71, and played a great game despite losing in overtime to Gonzaga, @86-90(OT). (Give the 'Zags credit for regaining some of their mojo with a great performance. This is almost their last chance to earn their way back into the rankings. They're not playing in BRACKETBUSTERS, but their Feb 17 showdown with Memphis will be just as big.)

Southern Illinois and Creighton have opened a gap on the rest of MVC pack at 10-3. The Salukis looked great stifling Wichita State on the road, 54-@46. (WSU seems headed for the NIT at this point, mired in sixth place at 6-7.) The two league-leaders meet for their second showdown -- SIU squeaked out a 58-@57 win the first time around -- in Carbondale, IL on Saturday.) The MVC teams are in fine shape overall. The league will get four NCAA bids, for sure. Still, they've come so far that now the BRACKETBUSTERS matchups in February are more of a pitfall than an opportunity. (Butler hosting SIU will be great entertainment with no downside for those two NCAA locks; but Northern Iowa at Nevada, Missouri State hosting Winthrop, Bradley at VCU, Creighton hosting Drexel and Wichita State hosting Appalachian State are all dangerous matchups. The MVC teams will likely need a BRACKETBUSTERS win and/or a semifinal berth in the conference tournament to secure a bid. Those don't come easy.

The Mountain West, Atlantic 10, Conference USA and Sun Belt don't participate in BRACKETBUSTERS. The MWC teams figure they're too good. Maybe. Air Force, UNLV and BYU are all tied atop the MWC at 6-2. USAF (beat Stanford, Texas Tech) and UNLV (beat Nevada, Texas Tech) have done some things out of conference to make a case for an at-large bid; BYU doesn't have that. The A-10 has been eclipsed by the MVC and skipping BRACKETBUSTERS isn't helping their cause. George Washington has a squeak win over Virginia Tech from the BB&T CLASSIC, but that's it; Massachusetts and Rhode Island have no name out-of-conference wins; and Fordham -- Fordham??? -- forget it; Xavier beat Kansas State, Villanova, Illinois, and VCU, so that's about the only A-10 team with a shot at an at-large bid. Anyone not named "Memphis" in Conference-USA better hope the Tigers have an off night in the conference tournament and that automatic bid becomes up for grabs. (Oops! The C-USA tourney is in Memphis again this year. Sorry!) There's no reason the Sun Belt teams shouldn't be playing BRACKETBUSTERS. Not that the Sun Belt will be anything other than a one-bid conference, but South Alabama and Western Kentucky aren't getting any ratings points playing each other.

UNC-Duke I is still yet to be played on Wednesday. (But this year the buzz is with the women's game on Thursday, featuring the #1 and #2 teams in the nation, both still undefeated.) Texas A&M still has a long way to go to claim the Big 12 title (starting Monday night with the first of two matchups with Texas). It's been years since UCLA and USC played in basketball with first place on the line, but the Trojans have put themselves in position for a big opportunity on Wednesday. (Meanwhile, Washington State and Stanford have their own showdown on Thursday.) A road game at Kentucky (Saturday) may be the only thing that could prevent an undefeated run for Florida through the SEC (but no way the slow-footed Wildcats can hang with the Gators' quickness). Marquette at Georgetown (Saturday) and Boston College at Florida State (Sunday) will be great. UCLA at West Virginia (Saturday) could be ugly. Is it possible that Virginia vs Virginia Tech (Saturday) has implications for first place in the ACC?

-- Ron

Key games this week:

Monday:
@TexasA&M-Texas, NewMexicoSt@UtahSt, Vermont@BostonU,

Tuesday:
@OhioSt-Michigan, Virginia@Maryland, @Tennessee-LSU, OhioU@WeMichigan,

Wednesday:
Florida@Georgia, @UCLA-USC, NCarolina@Duke, Pittsburgh@WVirginia, @Kansas-KansasSt, FloridaSt@Clemson, @SoIllinois-Bradley, OklahomaSt@Oklahoma, Georgetown@Louisville, @VCU-GeoMason, @Hofstra-Drexel, @Xavier-StLouis,

Thursday:
@WashingtonSt-Stanford, Nevada@FresnoSt, @Massachusetts-RhodeIsland, @SAlabama-We Kentucky, @NorthwesternSt-SamHoustonSt, WeberSt@PortlandSt,

Friday:
HolyCross@Bucknell,

Saturday:
Florida@Kentucky, UCLA@WVirginia, @Wisconsin-Iowa, @Pittsburgh-Providence, @Oregon-Arizona, Marquette@Georgetown, Butler@WrightSt, @Indiana-Illinois, @Gonzaga-StMarys, Virginia@VirginiaTech, @SoIllinois-Creighton, @OklahomaSt-TexasTech, @Tennessee-Vanderbilt, @LSU-Arkansas, @NoIowa-MissouriSt, NewMexicoSt@FresnoSt, @UNLV-Wyoming, @GeoWashington-Xavier, VCU@OldDominion, Akron@Toledo, @WeKentucky-MidTennessee, LongBeachSt@UCSantaBarbara, @NoArizona-IdahoSt, AustinPeay@Samford, Belmont@Lipscomb,

Sunday:
BostonCol@FloridaSt, Duke@Maryland, Stanford@Washington, @Albany-Vermont.

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Top 25 - 07 Feb 5: MIDCONFERENCE - [] Column

1. Florida (21-2)
2. UCLA (19-2)
3. North Carolina (20-3)
4. Texas A&M (19-3)
5. Ohio State (20-3)
6. Wisconsin (22-2)
7. Pittsburgh (20-3)
8. Oregon (19-4)
9. Kansas (18-4)
10. Washington State (19-4)
11. Marquette (19-4)
12. Butler (20-2)
13. Memphis (19-3)
14. Nevada (20-2)
15. Boston College (16-6)
16. Florida State (17-6)
17. Kentucky (15-5)
18. Indiana (16-6)
19. Duke (18-5)
20. Arizona (15-7)
21. Gonzaga (17-7)
22. Stanford (14-6)
23. USC (17-6)
24. Virginia (14-6)
25. Southern Illinois (18-5)

Honorable Mention:
- - North Carolina State (13-8), Georgia Tech (13-8), Colorado (6-13), Iowa (13-10), Kansas State (16-6), Hofstra (17-6), Yale (9-10), Iona (1-22).