07 Feb19 - Cracks In The Plaster
Cracks In The Plaster
No fewer than 16 teams out of the Top 25 lost last week (and 8 teams lost twice). What does it mean? (The wrong 25 teams were ranked? Perhaps.) Mostly, though, it means that there aren't 25 teams playing consistently dominant basketball week-in and week-out. There are lots of teams playing decently well, but after about the Top 14 or so, there's a big gap and a good case could be made for another 10 teams being ranked in place of the current ones. "Major upsets" this time of year are actually pretty normal. They won't mean much of anything a couple of weeks from now as far as the elite teams are concerned. The trick is to try and figure out which of those last-minute upstart teams are the real deal that have found something permanent vs. the ones who have just willed a one-time last hurrah in a season that's mostly going nowhere.
Florida finally lost the game it's been trying to lose for a couple of weeks now. Vanderbilt was the happy recipient as the Commodores won @83-70, paced by 24p each from tDerrick Byars and tShan Foster. The 'Dores are alone in second place in the SEC (and it's legit: they've split with UF and UTn, won at Kentucky, and beat Alabama and LSU as well). North Carolina lost @80-81(OT) in their rematch showdown with Virginia Tech (but while UNC rebounded with a 77-@72 win at Boston College, VaTech gave it back with a 56-@81 rout loss at N.C. State). Texas A&M fell at the buzzer for the second time to Texas Tech (this time it was @75-77 on bJarrius Jackson's game-winning jumper) as the tougher "North Division" Big 12 schedule caught up to the Aggies -- they're now tied at 10-2 with Kansas (with no second meeting in store in the regular season). Pittsburgh was a spectator as Louisville came of age before their eyes and easily beat the home-standing Panthers, 83-@66. (Pitt regrouped to beat Washington, @65-61, while Lville pulled off another road upset with a buzzer-beater at Marquette, 61-@59.) Nothing permanent has gone wrong with the Big Boys, just a temporary reshuffle in the race for the #1 seeds.
The same can't be said for the likes of Arizona, Oregon, Boston College, Kentucky, Marquette, Indiana, Clemson and Washington, all of whom lost twice on the week. These teams all have lots of name wins, thanks to their stuffed BCS regular season schedules, but that also makes it harder to build momentum because they can't string a lot of games in a row with consistent performances. UofA lost at home, @75-80 to USC and @66-81 to UCLA (as the Bruins' pDarren Collison handed out 15 assists). Oregon lost 61-@63 at slumping Cal and then 69-@88 to rising Stanford (as fBrook Lopez had 26p9r). Boston College had its two biggest home games in front of it, but couldn't deliver a win against either Duke (L @70-78) or North Carolina (L @72-77) as the Eagles fell to third place in the ACC standings. Kentucky had two road games and couldn't come away with a win at either Tennessee (L 85-@89) or Alabama (L 61-@72) despite playing well. Marquette has fallen back into a mad scramble for fourth place in the Big East (and the final first-round bye in the conference tournament) with losses to DePaul (L 67-@72) and Louisville (L @59-61). Indiana's woes were both on the road: L 68-@81 at Purdue and L 55-@58 at Michigan. Clemson's exciting 17-0 start made it seem like things might be different this time, but here we are again looking at 2-7 since then and seventh place in the ACC standings thanks to weak showings at Wake Forest (L 65-@67) and vs surging Maryland (L @66-82). Washington didn't play badly, but it wasn't up to the tough task of facing Washington State (L @61-65) and at Pittsburgh (L 61-@65). Meanwhile, Georgetown posted two good wins: W @71-53 over West Virginia and a tough W 58-@55 at Villanova.
While the BRACKETBUSTER event provides false hope to teams that they can somehow transform their conferences from 1BCs into multi-bid leagues, it does allow the one opportunity to create matchups that can't be foreseen preseason. Last year, it was George Mason and Wichita State hooking up in a preview of a Sweet 16 NCAA game with a berth into the Elite 8 on the line. Could this year's marquee matchup, Southern Illinois at Butler, be a foreshadowing of a similar future? (Don't be surprised if it happens again.) The Salukis and Bulldogs put on a great show in one of the signature games of the 2006-07 season as SIU held a slim lead on the road for most of the way in a bruising 68-@64 victory, snapping BU's 22-game home win streak (as gJamaal Tatum had 20p4a and gA.J. Graves was held to 5p4a). Just as good was Friday's impressive win by Winthrop, 77-@66 on the road at Missouri State. When the Eagles' bTorrell Martin missed several games with a foot injury, gMichael Jenkins blossomed in his absence -- now they've got two killer scoring guards plus pChris Gaynor to run the show and capable veteran cCraig Bradshaw in the paint. Appalachian State won 60-@58 at fading Wichita State on gD.J. Thompson's game-winner. That game by itself isn't why they cracked this week's rankings; it's the cumulative effect of an earlier rout of Ohio U (which played a great game in a 72-@77 loss at New Mexico State) and their preseason crown at the SAN JUAN SHOOTOUT (which included wins over Virginia and Vanderbilt, both of whom are doing just fine at this stage of the season). Nevada eventually had an easy time with slumping Nothern Iowa, @79-64. Bradley was the only other bright spot for the MVC, winning 73-@64 at VCU. Drexel won at Creighton, 64-@58; and Utah State came back on the road at Oral Roberts to win 71-@65.
The big conference winners from BRACKETBUSTERS were the WAC and the Horizon, both 7-2. Both Nevada and New Mexico State should be assured at-large bids now, and Wright State (with its @77-62 pounding of Cal State-Fullerton) made a case for turning the Horizon into a multi-bid league. As feared, BRACKETBUSTERS was a bad deal for the MVC, which went 5-5 overall (and only 2-4 among the six teams that were in the hunt for the NCAAs -- now Wichita State and Northern Iowa have no shot at an at-large bid, and Missouri State and Creighton are headed in the wrong direction). The Colonial (5-7 overall) went 3-1 among the contending teams (VCU, Hofstra, Drexel and Old Dominion), but two bids at most is all they'll get. The jumbled standings among several of the BCS conferences doesn't bode well for any of these teams in the at-large race, though. Everyone else remains 1BC: Mid-American (6-6), Metro Atlantic (5-5), Ohio Valley (4-7), Southern (3-1), Big West (3-5), Big South (2-1), Big Sky (2-2), West Coast (1-0), Patriot (1-2), Mid-Continent (0-2), America East (0-2) and Southland (0-2).
It's The Game Of The Year Part II for the Big East and the Big 10. Pittsburgh beat Georgetown @74-69 the first time around; now it's Round Two in D.C. with first place on the line. Those two probably don't have a shot at a #1 seed in the NCAAs at this point, but one of them might get a #2 seed. On Sunday, we get Round Two of Wisconsin and Ohio State, as the Buckeyes try to avenge their earlier 69-@72 loss at the hands of the Badgers. One or both of those teams may wind up with a #1 seed in the NCAAs, so there's even more than first place in the regular season race on the line for them. The momentum of form is definitely with the Hoyas over the Panthers; I'm less convinced that a change of venue will make enough of a difference for OSU over UW.
-- Ron
Key games this week:
Monday:
Kansas@KansasSt, @Marquette-Villanova,
Tuesday:
Wisconsin@MichiganSt, @Kentucky-LSU, @Texas-TexasTech, @Winthrop-HighPoint, AirForce@UNLV, WVirginia@Providence, @NotreDame-DePaul, MissouriSt@WichitaSt, @Bradley-NoIowa,
Wednesday:
TexasA&M@OklahomaSt, @Maryland-FloridaSt, @Tennessee-Alabama, @VirginiaTech-BostonCol, @Mississippi-Georgia, @Xavier-RhodeIsland, Akron-MiamiOH,
Thursday:
WashingtonSt@Oregon, @Butler-LoyolaIL, Stanford@USC, Duke@Clemson, @NewMexicoSt-UtahSt, Vermont@BostonU, @CalStFullerton-UCSantaBarbara, @Montana-NoArizona,
Saturday:
@UCLA-Stanford, Florida@LSU, @Georgetown-Pittsburgh, Marquette@NotreDame, @Virginia-GeorgiaTech, @BostonCol-Clemson, @Oregon-Washington, @Arkansas-Tennessee, @MichiganSt-Indiana, @Creighton-WichitaSt, @NewMexicoSt-FresnoSt, @Marist-Siena, @DelawareSt-FloridaA&M,
Sunday:
Wisconsin@OhioSt, NCarolina@Maryland, @Vanderbilt-Kentucky.
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Top 25 - 07 Feb 19 - [] Column
- UCLA (22-3)
- Wisconsin (26-2)
- Florida (24-3)
- Ohio State (24-3)
- North Carolina (23-4)
- Texas A&M (22-4)
- Kansas (22-4)
- Washington State (22-4)
- Georgetown (19-5)
- Pittsburgh (23-4)
- Nevada (23-2)
- Memphis (22-3)
- Southern Illinois (22-5)
- Butler (21-4)
- Louisville (18-8)
- Maryland (20-7)
- Vanderbilt (17-8)
- Stanford (16-8)
- Marquette (20-7)
- Duke (20-7)
- Kentucky (16-8)
- Virginia (16-7)
- Texas (19-7)
- Winthrop (19-4)
- Appalachian State (18-6)
Honorable Mention:
- - Texas Tech (16-10), Mississippi State (15-10), Bradley (18-10), Akron (18-5), Utah State (16-7), New Mexico State (19-6).