11 Nov 7 - Ten'll Get You Twelve (PRESEASON)

Volume XVI, No. 1 - 11 Nov 7 : PRESEASON - [] Top 25 Ballot

Ten'll Get You Twelve

Last year's NCAA tournament told the story of the season. The Big East was so dominant that its 9th-place team, Connecticut, rolled to 11-straight wins in March to take the conference tournament and the NCAA crown (behind the stellar individual performance of Player of the Year, gKemba Walker). Great. Spectacularly entertaining. But it also says something about the overall quality of the field. Did I mention that a bubble team from the Colonial, VCU, made a run from the new "First Four" Play-In game all the way to the Final Four? How about the previous year's Cinderella national runner-up repeating its run to the final game in an even more improbable fashion? Then, there was the loaded juggernaut Kentucky, led to the Final Four by GC gBrandon Knight. A veteran superstar, a veteran blue-collar team, a team lucky to even be invited, and a superfrosh. Crazy, but it's a healthy sign that all of those different team personas were able to succeed.

This year, we're back to another two or three teams with The "U"-Word on their minds -- going Undefeated. Start with North Carolina -- all five starters are back, led by fHarrison Barnes, trees cTyler Zeller and cJohn Henson, and pure-passer pKendall Marshall. (What they lacked last year was outside shooting, and they got it -- a "McAdoo" to boot!) Ohio State is back for another run, led by cJared Sullinger, bWilliam Buford and pAaron Craft. Kentucky lost gKnight, but added four new GC players, led by fAnthony Davis. It would be fun to watch all three of these teams try to run the table, but the Tar Heels and the Wildcats meet (December 3rd in Lexington), so only one of those two will even get the chance.
     If it weren't such an impossible ending to top, you might think that Connecticut had a chance to be better this year with its very young team now battle tested. The "Year After" Rule is in effect for them, and they can certainly improve on their conference play performance from last year. (More likely, a team like Baylor will be able to make that jump after do-everything bLaceDarius Dunn's departure.)
     Duke has a lot riding on its new GC star, gAustin Rivers; (with three brothers on the roster this year, you might as well refer to it as "Plumlee U"). (Last year, pKyrie Irving stepped into a team with veteran stars and thrived; this year, besides gSeth Curry, gRivers will have to make them great all by himself right away. That's a tough ask.)

Having five returning starters can be a double-edged sword. You should be able to hit the ground running to start the season, for sure, but it's sometimes easier to improve when there's new blood pushing for its place in the lineup. Which way will Vanderbilt, Missouri, Memphis and Central Florida (now featuring two "Jordan"s) go?
     Or would you rather have no returning starters? Who knows what's in store for Texas, St. John's and Illinois?

The Mid-Majors look to be strong this year (and their lead teams play each other quite a bit). Last year, the Mountain West stepped up to play at a true BCS level with two powerhouse teams whose Sweet 16 finishes were underachievements. Alas, after the best season in school history, everyone at San Diego State has departed; and BYU (with superstar pJimmer Fredette gone) has itself departed from the MWC altogether. BYU is now a member of the West Coast (with Gonzaga, St. Mary's and Santa Clara); it's the WCC's turn to try and rise to a BCS-calibre season. Xavier (led by All-America pTu Holloway) figures to have a strong season for the Atlantic 10. Memphis has everybody back (and more) to lead Conference USA. The Colonial (George Mason [now led by ex-Georgia Tech coach Paul Hewitt], Old Dominion, not to mention VCU) is solid. The Horizon is in good shape with Butler, Detroit and Cleveland State.
     In 1BC land, there are only a couple of teams that seem capable of making a splash at season's end. Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Harvard (Ivy) and Long Beach State (Big West) have veteran teams that have the talent to make some noise.

It's just the first year of a multi-year process -- call it the "Great Conference Migration" -- but the conference landscape is going through a tumultuous change. The main driving force is non-BCS teams' wanting in on an automatic qualifying path to the big football payoffs. (Utah left the Mountain West for the new Pac-12 this year; Pittsburgh and Syracuse are leaving the Big East for the ACC next year.) The other driving force was Texas' power play to forge its own individual TV network deal (in the mold of Notre Dame) and then its demand of more than an equal share of Big 12 revenues. That's sending teams packing from the Big 12 (Colorado to the Pac-12 this year; Missouri and Texas A&M to the SEC next year.)
     For now, not too much has changed ... except even more conference names don't match their head count! The Big "12" only has 10 members this season. The Big "10" is up to 12 teams (in a single-division alignment for basketball). [The Atlantic 10 is still setting the standard with 14 members.] For this season also, the SEC has decided to align as a single division (even though the scheduling still reflects the old "East"/"West" divide -- great news for Alabama).

The annual coaching shuffle has some interesting faces in new places. Paul Hewitt was fired from Georgia Tech, but is now in a better position taking over at George Mason; Jim Larranaga (ex-George Mason) has a veteran squad to work with at Miami(Florida); ditto for Frank Haith (ex-Miami[Florida]) in as the new coach of Missouri; Mike Anderson (ex-Missouri) is back at Arkansas (after John Pelphrey was fired); Sydney Johnson (ex-Princeton) has a good team to lead at Fairfield; Geno Ford (ex-Kent State) is now at Bradley (after Jim Les was fired).
 &bnsp   (Brian Gregory [ex-Dayton] has his work cut out for him at cupboard-bare Georgia Tech; ditto for Cuonzo Martin [ex-Missouri State] who has to clean up the mess Bruce Pearl made at Tennessee; Mark Turgeon [ex-Texas A&M] doesn't have much to work with at Maryland [after Gary Williams retired]; Mark Gottfried [former Alabama] has a total rebuild as well at N.C. State [after Sidney Lowe's disappointing tenure]; Lon Kruger [ex-UNLV] is starting from scratch at Oklahoma [after Jeff Capel III was fired]; Ron Hunter (ex-IUPUI) tries his luck at Georgia State [after Rod Barnes was fired].)
     New coach Bryce Drew takes over at Valparaiso (for dad Homer, who retired); Mitch Henderson takes over at Princeton; King Rice now heads Monmouth; Paul Lusk leads Missouri State.

Not much on tap this first week of the season.
     North Carolina and Michigan State play Friday on an aircraft carrier (to celebrate Veteran's Day)! More interesting will be Duke hosting Belmont (Friday) and Vanderbilt hosting Oregon (Friday).

(ESPN's 24-hour TIP-OFF MARATHON is still a week away [overnight next Monday and all day next Tuesday]. Lots of headliner teams will be on display throughout the day.)

We're on the road to New Orleans this year, folks.

-- Ron

Key games this week:

Monday:

(7P):@Kentucky-{MorehouseCol}

Monday,Wednesday,Saturday; Thursday week-Sunday week:

COACHES VS CANCER CLASSIC WarmUp on-campus, 3rd/Cons @ ValparaisoIN, LynchburgVA; 3rd/Semis @ New York,NY /MSG/
-(A: @Arizona, @StJohns;
  B: @TexasA&M, @MississippiSt;
  A Cons: Duquesne, @Valparaiso, Akron, {UDistrictOfColumbia}, {INKokomo}, {Hiram};
  B Cons: William&Mary, @Liberty, EaKentucky, Lehigh),

Friday (VETERAN'S DAY):

@Vanderbilt-Oregon,
CARRIER CLASSIC 1Off @ San DiegoCA /U.S.S. CARL VINSON/
-(NCarolina-MichiganSt),

Friday-Monday 21 Nov:

GS-A SHOOTOUT RndRob(4) on-campus
-(@OhioSt, @Florida, WrightSt, NFlorida, JacksonSt),

Friday-Wednesday 23 Nov:

HALL OF FAME TIP-OFF RndRob on-campus, @ UncasvilleCT
-(A: @Kentucky, @PennSt, Radford, LongIsland;
  B: @SFlorida, @OldDominion, Vermont, Marist),

Friday-Tuesday week; Saturday week-Sunday-week; Monday 21 Nov-Wednesday 23 Nov:

MAUI INVITATIONAL WarmUp1/1,2 on-campus, 3rd/Cons @ MurfreesboroTN, 2nd/Qtrs @ LahainaHI
-(Fri: @Duke-Belmont,
  Main: @Duke, @UCLA, @Michigan, @Memphis, @Michigan, @Kansas @Georgetown, @Tennessee, @{{Chaminade}};
  Cons: Belmont, Towson, @MidTennessee, UNCGreensboro);

Friday-Monday 28 Nov:

GS-B INVITATIONAL RndRob(5) on-campus
-(Fri: @Louisville, LongBeachSt, OhioU, ArkansasSt, TNMartin, Lamar),
CONNECTICUT 6 CLASSIC TrplHdr @ UncasvilleCT
-(@Fairfield-@Quinnipiac, @Yale-@CConnecticutSt, @Hartford-@SacredHeart),

Saturday:

@NotreDame-MSValleySt,

Saturday-Monday:

WV CLASSIC RndRob(3) @ SeattleWA
-(@Washington, Portland, GeorgiaSt, FLAtlantic),

Sunday:

NCarolina-@UNCAsheville(NC),

Sunday-Monday 21 Nov:

LEGENDS CLASSIC WarmUp1/2 on-campus, Cons @KingstonRI, @LewisburgPA, Semis @EastRutherfordNJ
-(A: @Vanderbilt, @NCState;
  B: @Texas, @OregonSt;
  A Cons: @Bucknell, Princeton, MoreheadSt;
  B Cons: @RhodeIsland, Hofstra, {WAlabama}),

Sunday-Sunday 27 Nov:

PHILLY CLASSIC RndRob(4) on-campus
-(@Pittsburgh, LaSalle, Penn, Rider, RobertMorris),

Sunday-Wednesday 23 Nov:

CBE CLASSIC WarmUp1/2 on-campus, Cons @BowlingGreenOH, @MaconGa, Semis @KansasCityMO
-(A: @NotreDame, @Missouri;
  B: @California, @Georgia;
  A Cons: Niagara, SDState, @Mercer, SamHoustonSt;
  B Cons: GeoWashington, Detroit, AustinPeay, @BowlingGreen),

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Top 25 - 11 Nov 7 : PRESEASON - [] Column

1. North Carolina
2. Ohio State
3. Kentucky
4. Connecticut
5. Duke
6. UCLA
7. Vanderbilt
8. Syracuse
9. Pittsburgh
10. Xavier
11. Butler
12. Louisville
13. Wisconsin
14. Florida
15. Michigan
16. Temple
17. Purdue
18. Notre Dame
19. Gonzaga
20. Missouri
21. Arizona
22. Memphis
23. Texas
24. George Mason
25. Belmont

Worth keeping an eye on:

Washington, California, Texas A&M, Baylor, St John's, Oregon, Miami(Florida), Indiana State, Central Florida, Alabama, Harvard, Fairfield, Long Beach State, UNC-Asheville.