11 Mar21 - The Big Bubble

Volume XV, No. 20 - 11 Mar 21

The Big Bubble

Was it worth it to expand to 68 teams? (Besides complicating prep and participating in tourney pools), the FIRST FOUR games didn't offer much. [11]VCU-[11]USC was miserable to watch; [12]UAB only proved it didn't belong by getting blown out by [12]Clemson, 52-70. The NCAA Seeding Committee rated those last four teams [11a]USC, [11b]VCU, [12a]UAB, [12b]Clemson (in that order based on which teams wore white as the higher seed). (Personally, I found the two 11/11 and 12/12 "Bubble" games less entertaining than the two traditional 16/16 "Play-In" games ... although, I could do without all of them, frankly.) [11b]VCU certainly made the best of the opportunity it was given by slogging past [11a]USC (59-46), then knocking off slumpinged [6]Georgetown (74-56) and stunning highly regarded [3]Purdue (94-76).
     The Colonial did itself proud placing one team in the Sweet 16; [8]George Mason made a late run to knock off slumpinged [9]Villanova (61-57); and [9]Old Dominion played well, only to lose at the buzzer to [8]Butler (58-60).

The top MM/1BC "upset special" teams (that everybody could see coming) -- [12]Utah State, [13]Belmont, [13]Oakland -- weren't able to break through: [5]Kansas State handled USU 73-68; [4]Wisconsin didn't let BU speed them up, 72-58; [4]Texas held off a late close by OU, 85-81.
     Instead, it was Jack Dawson [13]Morehead State who provided the one major "second-round" surprise, stunning [4]Louisville 62-61 on a late three-pointer and a final defensive stand. (It's the second straight year for the 1BC Ohio Valley making a splash -- last year, it was Murray State shocking Vanderbilt.)

[1]Ohio State looked very much like the best team in the tournament, having no problem with [16b]Texas-San Antonio (75-46) and not much more of a worry against [8]George Mason (98-66). (Thank goodness all four sites are nationally broadcast now so we had the option of switching away from that 30-point blowout!) [1]Kansas was solid in two games: 72-53 over [16]Boston University, and 73-59 past [9]Illinois. [2]Florida cruised past [16]UC-Santa Barbara, and held off [7]UCLA 73-65.
     [1]Pittsburgh had no problem with [16]UNC-Asheville, but had to stage a second-half comeback only to lose at the end to [8]Butler, 71-70, in a horrendous Comedy Of Errors ending where both teams committed bonehead fouls that gave away control of the game. [1]Duke (@73-71 vs [8]Michigan) and [2]North Carolina (@86-83 vs [7]Washington) can once again thank their cushy [Charlotte],NC Pod placement for helping them avoid "third-round" upsets. (Both NC teams go down on a neutral floor, or even in a Pod that wasn't right in their backyard.)

The depth of the Big East was validated by having 7 teams move through to the Round of 32 (an even higher percentage than 11/68 to at the start) and having its 9th- and 11th-place teams ([3]Connecticut and [11]Marquette) advance to the Sweet 16. But the bubble burst, however, as the quality of the performance of its top teams left a lot to be desired. Pitt had to battle back just to make the Butler game a close loss; same for Louisville against Morehead State; [2]Notre Dame was soundly whipped, 57-71, by [10]Florida State. For [3]Syracuse, it may just be a bad matchup as they fell 62-66 to [11]Marquette (who also beat them in conference play). Overachieving [6]St. John's couldn't handle tournament veteran [11]Gonzaga (71-86); [6]Georgetown couldn't compete with FIRST FOUR VCU; [9]Villanova let the game slip away against George Mason. No shame in [5]West Virginia's 63-71 loss to [4]Kentucky, or [6]Cincinnati's 58-69 loss to conferencemate [3]Connecticut. Depth, yes; greatness, no.

The Player of the Year debate continued on into the tournament as both pJimmer Fredette(34p6a in [3]BYU's 89-67 "third-round" win against [11]Gonzaga) and pKemba Walker(33p5a5r in [3]Connecticut's 69-68 win over [6]Cincinnati) led their teams through to the Sweet 16. They're both putting on a spectacular show. (It's still quite a long way off; but if they both make it to the national final game, it would be this generation's "Bird vs Magic".)

[5]Arizona's 70-69 win over [4]Texas was determined by a questionable referee decision. With the ball and a 2-point lead, the Longhorns were trying to throw the ball in bounds but couldn't; the ref wouldn't grant a timeout (even though his hand signal had only counted "4") and he whistled a turnover on a 5-second violation. Arizona got the ball, and fDerrick Williams made a fluke basket and converted the free throw on a traditional three-point play to claim a 1-point win.

As befits their core talent pools, the second rounds of the NIT (BCS: 10, MM: 4, 1BC 2), CBI (BCS: 1, MM: 6, 1BC: 1) and CIT ([BCS]: 1, MM: 5, 1BC: 6) all served their purposes of giving teams who had some semblance of a good season some kind of "postseason" experience.

Maybe Ohio State would be a different team if someone could get cJared Sullinger in foul trouble and then there'd be pressure to make shots on the wing players. Don't see Kentucky or Marquete able to do that -- maybe North Carolina if everything is flowing.
     Kansas has a cakewalk to the Final Four in the Southwest with all of the heavyweights having been upset in that region.
     The return of pKyrie Irving for Duke may be not just a game-changer, but a tournament-changer. Arizona's frontcourt should hurt the Blue Devils inside, but no way can the Wildcat perimeter players handle Duke's guards. San Diego State already has experience facing BYU's one-man-gang, so it won't be quite as much of a shock to deal with UConn and pKemba Walker (but if KW doesn't get in foul trouble, it's goodbye Aztecs).
     Florida is the most solid team in the Southeast (but if BYU could handle Gonzaga's physical team, it might just be able to sneak by the Gators as well). Wisconsin should welcome Butler's style of play and the Badgers' height should be the difference.

It says here: Ohio State, Kansas, Duke, Florida (but I'm fervently hoping for UConn and BYU to break through behind their spectacular stars).

-- Ron

[P.S. In a bizarre twist, the leader at the Sweet 16 break of my Hoops Contest is the bracket of President Barack Obama!]

Key games this week:

NCAA

Thursday, Saturday:

NCAA WEST REGIONAL Semis,Finals @ Anaheim CA

• [W1]Duke v [W5]Arizona
• [W2]San Diego St v [W3]Connecticut

NCAA SOUTHEAST REGIONAL Semis,Finals @ New Orleans LA

• [SE2]Florida v [SE3]BYU
• [SE4]Wisconsin v [SE8]Butler

Friday, Sunday:

NCAA EAST REGIONAL Semis,Finals @ Newark NJ

• [E1]Ohio St v [E4]Kentucky (BG)
• [E2]N Carolina v [E11]Marquette

NCAA SOUTHWEST REGIONAL Semis,Finals @ San Antonio TX

• [SE1]Kansas v [SE12]Richmond
• [SE10]Florida St v [SE11+b]VCU

Sat 2 Apr, Mon 4 Apr:

NCAA FINAL FOUR,NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP @ Indianapolis, IN

• (1/[EAST]) v (4/[WEST])
• (2/[SOUTHWEST]) v (3/[SOUTHEAST])

NIT

Monday:

16s on-campus

• @ (s1)Alabama v (s4)New Mexico
• @ (e2)Washington St v (e3)Oklahoma St
• @ (s2)Miami-FL v (s3)Missouri St

Tuesday:

Qtrs on-campus

• @ (w1)Colorado v (w7)Kent St

Wednesday:

Qtrs on-campus

• @(s1)Alabama/(s4)NewMexico v @(s2)MiamiFL/(s3)MissouriSt
• @ (e2)WashingtonSt/(e3)OklahomaSt v (e4)Northwestern
• @ (m4)Wichita St v (m6)Col of Charleston

Tuesday week, Thursday week:

Semis, Finals @ New York NY /MSG/

• ([s]/Alabama) v ([w]/Colorado)
• ([e]/Washington St) v ([m]/Wichita St)

CBI

Monday:

Qtrs on-campus

• (w): @ Oregon v Duquesne
• (s): @ Creighton v Davidson
• (e): @ C Florida v Rhode Island
• (m): @ Boise St v Evansville

Wednesday:

Semis on-campus (re-seeded)

Monday week, Wednesday week, (if necessary: Friday week):

Finals on-campus (Best of 3)

CIT

Monday:

Qtrs on-campus

• @ Northern Iowa v SMU

Tuesday:

Qtrs on-campus

• @ E Tennessee St v Ohio U
• @ Iona v Buffalo (NY)
• @ San Francisco v Santa Clara (CA)

Friday:

Semis on-campus (re-seeded)

Wednesday week:

Final on-campus