11 Mar 7 - Jack Dawsons (PRETOURNAMENT)

Volume XV, No. 18 - 11 Mar 7: PRETOURNAMENT - [] FINAL TOP 25 BALLOT

Jack Dawsons

No sooner did Brigham Young hit heights never before achieved in the program's history than the air was let out of its balloon. fBrandon Davies was dismissed from the team and his absence was immediately felt in a @64-82 home blowout loss to a New Mexico squad that had been slipping further and further from relevance. The Cougars regrouped and routed Wyoming @102-78, but their darkhorse shot at making a run to the Final Four has definitely taken a blow.
     Not only did Duke fall out of contention for a No. 1 seed with last week's loss at Virginia Tech, but this week they lost at North Carolina, 67-@81, in a rivalry game that also had the ACC regular season title on the line. Give Roy Williams full credit for making the bold move mid-January to insert freshman pKendall Marshall as a starter -- they've only lost once since then (the giveback loss at Duke where they controlled the first half); they've gone from NIT-bound to Sweet 16+. Meanwhile, the Blue Devils have degraded into bNolan Smith scoring on his own, gSeth Curry shooting jumpers and tKyle Singler struggling with his shot.
     Texas fell at home, @70-75, to suddenly surging Kansas State. It wound up costing them the BIG 12 title as Kansas handled Texas A&M, @64-51, and Missouri, 70-@66, at the Jayhawks earned their SEVENTH STRAIGHT REGULAR SEASON TITLE.

Along with Kansas State, Gonzaga and Butler, Florida has regrouped the last few weeks to look like the powerhouse they were expected to be before the season started. The Gators blitzed second-place Alabama, @78-51, and then won at Vanderbilt, 86-@76, to take the SEC regular season title.

COLONIAL regular season gap champ [1]George Mason was blitzed, 63-@79, by [4]VCU (playing in front of a home crowd, and reversing a @51-71 regular season home rout loss); but this multi-bid league has several splashworthy contenders so it's no harm done in the big picture.
     Harvard's @79-67 win over Princeton earned the Crimson at least a share of the IVY LEAGUE title; the Tigers can still earn their share with a road win at Penn on Tuesday night (and force a one-game playoff [Saturday 4PM at Yale] for the automatic NCAA bid).

In the movie Titanic, Leonardo DiCaprio's character wins his ticket in a card game and makes his passage under the name of the original ticketholder, "Jack Dawson". As usual this year, we've got our fair share of Jack Dawsons who've won their tickets and will go to the NCAAs under the guise of the "proper" owners who "should have" represented their leagues.
     [1]Missouri State won the regular season MISSOURI VALLEY title in its last game, a win over second-place Wichita State; but the Bears fell in the MVC tournament final, @56-60. Meet "Missouri State" (aka [3]Indiana State), who will represent the league in the NCAAs (while the real MoSt could very well miss the Dance).
     METRO ATLANTIC regular season gap champ [1]Fairfield was blown out at home in the semis, @48-62, by [3]St. Peter's; meet "Fairfield" (aka the SPU Peacocks).
     Instead of regular season 3-game gap champ, [1]Coastal Carolina, the BIG SOUTH champ is [3]North Carolina-Asheville, who knocked off the top seeds in their own gym, 60-@47, in the conference tournament final.
     In AMERICA EAST, regular season champ [1]Vermont was blitzed 47-69 in the semis by [5]Stony Brook; meet "Vermont".
     SUN BELT regular season gap champ [1/1E]Florida Atlantic never got going, losing 64-78 right away in the conference tournament to [4aW]North Texas. Meet "Florida Atlantic".

The final standings for the BCS and MM conferences give an idea of which teams are locks for at-large NCAA bids:

• BIG EAST(9) - Pittsburgh + (lock: Notre Dame, Louisville, Syracuse, St. John's, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Connecticut, Villanova; not: Marquette)
• BIG 12(4) - Kansas + (lock: Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Missouri; not: Colorado)
• MWC(2) - BYU + (lock: San Diego State, UNLV; not: Colorado State, New Mexico)
• BIG 10(2) - Ohio State + (lock: Purdue, Wisconsin; not: Illinois, Michigan State, Michigan, Penn State)
• ACC(2) - North Carolina + (lock: Duke, Florida State; not: Virginia Tech, Clemson, Boston College)
• SEC(2) - Florida + (lock: Kentucky, Vanderbilt; not: Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia)
• PAC-10(2) - Arizona + (lock: UCLA, Washington; not: USC, California, Washington State)
• A-10(2) - Xavier + (lock: Temple, Richmond; not: Duquesne)
• COLONIAL(1/2) - Old Dominion/VCU + (lock: George Mason, Old Dominion; not: VCU, Hofstra, Drexel, James Madison)
• WCC(1) - Gonzaga/St. Mary's - (lock: St. Mary's/Gonzaga)
• HORIZON(0) - Butler/Wisconsin(Milwaukee) + (not: Wisconsin(Milwaukee)/Butler, Cleveland State, Valparaiso)
• MVC(0) - Indiana State + (not: Missouri State, Wichita State)
• C-USA(0) - UAB + (not: UTEP, Southern Mississippi, Tulsa, Memphis, Marshall)
• WAC(0) - Utah State + (not: Boise State)

That's 27 lock bids, which leaves a whopping 10 soft bids. Only Utah State is a true Anti-Spoiler; (maybe Butler if they lose to Wisconsin(Milwaukee)). Marquette, Colorado State, Illinois, Virginia Tech, Tennessee, Alabama, VCU, Cleveland State, Missouri State and UTEP are the ones I'd take.

There's plenty to prove in the BCS conference tournaments. The BIG EAST is its own show again this year -- who cares if it wears out teams for the NCAAs? Kansas' BIG 12 title won't quite be legit without a win over Texas. Don't expect anyone to challenge Ohio State in the BIG 10 on a neutral floor. Has BYU's margin over San Diego State shrunk to nothing in the MOUNTAIN WEST? Can Duke respond to the new North Carolina's stunning roll in the ACC? How strong will young Kentucky be in the SEC (and beyond) with no more road crowds to face? Can Washington rebound in the PAC-10? Will anybody step up in CONFERENCE USA?

-- Ron

P.S. Look for the official Hoops Contest invite Sunday overnight!!!

Key games this week:

Monday:

COLONIAL TOURNAMENT Final @ Richmond VA /VCU/
- ([2a]@OldDominion-@[4]VCU(VA)),
WCC TOURNAMENT Final @ Las Vegas NV /ORLEANS/
- ([1a]StMarys-[1b]Gonzaga),
SOCON TOURNAMENT Final @ Chattanooga TN /Chattanooga/
- ([1a/1aS]ColofCharleston-[1b/1bS]Wofford),
MAAC TOURNAMENT Final @ Bridgeport CT /Fairfield/
- ([2a]Iona-[4]StPeters),

Monday-Tuesday:

SUN BELT TOURNAMENT Semis,Final @ Hot Springs AR
- ([2E]MidTennessee-[4bW]@ARLittleRock, [3E]WeKentucky-[2aW]NTexas),
SUMMIT TOURNAMENT Semis,Final @ Sioux Falls SD
- ([1]Oakland-[5]@SDState, [2]OralRoberts-[3]IUPUI),

Tuesday:

@Penn-Princeton,
HORIZON TOURNAMENT Final on-campus
- (@[1a]WIMilwaukee-[1b]Butler),

Tuesday-Wednesday:

BIG SKY TOURNAMENT Semis,Final @ #1-seed[No Colorado/Greeley CO]
- (@[1]NoColorado-[4]NoArizona, [2]Montana-[3]WeberSt),

Tuesday-Saturday:

BIG EAST TOURNAMENT @ New York NY /MSG/
- (Tue 1st/32s: [9a]Connecticut-[16]DePaul, [9b]Villanova-[15]SFlorida, [9c]Marquette-[14]Providence, [12]SetonHall-[13]Rutgers;
Wed 2nd/16s: @[3c]StJohns-([12]Rutgers), [6a]WVirginia-([9c]Marquette), [6b]Cincinnati-([9b]Villanova), [8]Georgetown-([9a]Connecticut);
Thu 3rd/Qtrs: [1]Pittsburgh-([8]Georgetown), [2]NotreDame-([6b]Cincinnati), [3a]Louisville-([6a]WVirginia), [3b]@Syracuse-(@[3c]StJohns)),
MEAC TOURNAMENT @ Winston-Salem NC
- ([1]BethuneCookman),

Tuesday, Thursday-Saturday:

MAC TOURNAMENT on-campus, @ Cleveland OH
- ([1/E1]@KentSt),

Tuesday, Friday-Sunday:

A-10 TOURNAMENT on-campus, @ Atlantic City NJ
- (Tue on-campus 1st/16s: @[4b]GeoWashington-[12]StJosephs, @[6]RhodeIsland-[10b]StLouis, @[7]StBonaventure-[10a]LaSalle, @[8a]Massachusetts-[8b]Dayton;
Fri @AtlCtyNJ 2nd/Qtrs: [1]Xavier-([8a]Massachusetts), [2]Temple-([7]StBonaventure), [3]Richmond-([6]RhodeIsland), [4a]Duquesne-([4b]GeoWashington)),

Wednesday:

NEC TOURNAMENT Final on-campus
- (@[1]LongIsland-[3]RobertMorris),

Wednesday-Thursday, Saturday:

SOUTHLAND TOURNAMENT @ Katy TX
- ([1]McNeeseSt),

Wednesday, Friday-Saturday:

GREAT WEST TOURNAMENT @ Orem UT /UT Valley/
- (@[1]UTValley),

Wednesday-Saturday:

BIG 12 TOURNAMENT @ Kansas City MO
- (Wed 1st/16s: [5a]Colorado-[12]IowaSt, [5b]Missouri-[10b]TexasTech, [7a]Baylor-[10a]Oklahoma, [7b]Nebraska-[9]OklahomaSt;
Thu 2nd/Qtrs: [1]@Kansas-([7b]Nebraska), [2]Texas-([7a]Baylor), [3a]TexasA&M-([5b]Missouri), [3b]@KansasSt-([5a]Colorado)),
MWC TOURNAMENT @ Las Vegas NV /UNLV/
- (Wed 1st/16s: [8]Wyoming-[9]TCU;
Thu 2nd/Qtrs: [1a]BYU-([8]Wyoming), [1b]SanDiegoSt-[6b]Utah, @[3]UNLV-[6a]AirForce, [4]ColoradoSt-[5]NewMexico),
PAC-10 TOURNAMENT @ Los Angeles CA
- (Wed 1st/16s: [7a]Oregon-[10]ArizonaSt, [7b]Stanford-[9]OregonSt;
Thu 2nd/Qtrs: [1]Arizona-([7b]Stanford), [2]@UCLA-([7a]Oregon), [3]Washington-[6]WashingtonSt(WA), [4a]@USC-[4b]California),
WAC TOURNAMENT @ Las Vegas NV /ORLEANS/
- ([1]UtahSt),
C-USA TOURNAMENT @ El Paso TX /UTEP/
- (Wed 1st/16s: [5a]SoMississippi-[12]Tulane, [5b]Marshall-[11]Houston, [7a]SMU-[10]Rice(TX), [7b]ECarolina-[9]CFlorida;
Thu 2nd/Qtrs: [1]UAB-([7b]ECarolina), [2a]Tulsa-([7a]SMU), @[2b]UTEP-([5b]Marshall), [4]Memphis-([5a]SoMississippi)),
SWAC TOURNAMENT @ Garland TX
- ([1]@TexasSo),

Thursday-Saturday:

BIG WEST TOURNAMENT @ Anaheim CA
- ([1]@LongBeachSt),

Thursday-Sunday:

BIG 10 TOURNAMENT @ Indianapolis IN
- (Thu 1st/16s: [4c]PennSt-[11]@Indiana, [4d]MichiganSt-[10]Iowa, [8]Northwestern-[9]Minnesota;
Fri 2nd/Qtrs: [1]OhioSt-([8]Northwestern), [2]@Purdue-([4d]MichiganSt, [3]Wisconsin-([4c]PennSt), [4a]Michigan-[4b]Illinois),
ACC TOURNAMENT @ Greensboro NC
- (Thu 1st/16s: [4b]BostonCollege-[12]@WakeForest, [4c]VirginiaTech-[10b]GeorgiaTech, [7a]Maryland-[10a]@NCState, [7b]Virginia-[9]MiamiFL;
Fri 2nd/Qtrs: [1]@NCarolina-([7b]Virginia), [2]@Duke-([7a]Maryland), [3]FloridaSt-([4c]VirginiaTech), [4a]Clemson-([4b]BostonCollege)),
SEC TOURNAMENT @ Atlanta GA /GADOME/

Thursday 1st/16s

• (1:00P): [3bE]Georgia v [5W]Auburn
• (3:30P): [3aW]Mississippi v [6E]S Carolina
• (7:30P): [3bW]Arkansas v [5E]Tennessee
• (10:00P): [3aE]Vanderbilt v [6W]LSU

Friday 2nd/Qtrs

• (1:00P): [1W]Alabama v ([3bE]Georgia)
• (3:30P): [2E]@Kentucky v ([3aW]Mississippi)
• (7:30P): [1E]Florida v ([3bW]Arkansas)
• (10:00P): [2W]Mississippi St v ([3aE]Vanderbilt)

Saturday Semis

• (1:00P): ([1W]Alabama) v ([2E]@Kentucky)
• (3:30P): ([1E]Florida) v ([2W]MississippiSt)

Sunday Final

• (1:00P): (([1E]Florida)) v (([1W]Alabama))

Friday:

PATRIOT TOURNAMENT Final on-campus
- (@[1]Bucknell-[4c]Lafayette(PA)),

Saturday:

IVY PLAYOFF [if necessary] @ New Haven CT /Yale/
- ((4P):[1a]Harvard-[1b]Princeton),
AMERICA EAST TOURNAMENT Final on-campus
- (@[2]BostonU-[5]StonyBrook),

Sunday:

(NCAA TOURNAMENT BRACKET SELECTION),
(NIT BRACKET SELECTION),
(CBI BRACKET SELECTION),
(CIT BRACKET SELECTION).

---

FINAL TOP 25 - 11 Mar 7: PRETOURNAMENT - [] Column

1. Ohio State (28-2) BIG 10+2
2. Pittsburgh (27-4) BIG E
3. Kansas (29-2) BIG 12
4. Texas (25-6)
5. BYU (27-3) coMWC+3
6. Notre Dame (25-5)
7. Purdue (25-6)
8. San Diego State (27-2) coMWC+3
9. Duke (27-4)
10. Louisville (23-8)
11. Wisconsin (21-7)
12. Florida (24-6) SEC
13. Syracuse (25-6)
14. North Carolina (24-6) ACC
15. Arizona (25-6) PAC-10
16. Kansas State (21-9)
17. Connecticut (21-9)
18. West Virginia (20-10)
19. Kentucky (22-8)
20. St. John's (20-10)
21. Vanderbilt (21-9)
22. Utah State (26-3) WAC+5
23. Xavier (24-6) A-10
24. George Mason (26-6) COLON+2
25. Belmont (27-4) A-SUN+3(TiTo)

Honorable Mention:

Cincinnati (24-7).