07 Nov 5 - Left Behind

Volume XII, No. 1 - 07 Nov 5: PRESEASON - [] Top 25 Ballot

Left Behind

Take a moment to appreciate one last time the season that took place a year ago. In a reincarnation of 1992, we had a repeat national champion (Florida) which defeated freshmen-led challenger (Ohio State) in the final (echoing the efforts of Duke '92 over the "Fab Five" from Michigan). Beyond that, for the first time, we also had one school attain the national championship in both football and basketball in the same academic year (with UF besting OSU in both title games to boot). The NBA's new minimum age limit (19yo) also created a cadre of what would have been "straight-to-the-pros" high school phenoms into "one-and-done" shooting stars who graced the college stage and then moved on. Last year featured not one such Golden Child, but two: tKevin Durant(Texas) showcased an offensive skill set rarely seen on a 6'9" player of any age en route to being named the Player of the Year; and cGreg Oden(Ohio State)'s defensive prowess led his team to the championship game. We're not likely to see a feat like Florida's again anytime soon (especially from an intact starting five that returned for a second go around). And while a new batch of GCs is here again, none is likely to be quite as dominant as tDurant and gOden.

Last year, North Carolina's fTyler Hansbrough was arguably the best returning player in college, only to be eclipsed by the GCs who entered the college landscape (including one on his own team, fBrandan Wright). It may well happen again. The likes of cRoy Hibbert(Georgetown), gChris Lofton(Tennessee), gDrew Neitzel(Michigan State), fD.J. White(Indiana) and gSean Singletary(Virginia) opted to return to college for another season. Some of last year's would-be GCs were left behind as well: gD.J. Augustin(Texas), tChase Budinger(Arizona), fRyan Anderson(California), fBrook Lopez(Stanford), gTy Lawson(UNC) and gWayne Ellington(UNC). In fact, a few of the new GC crop are stepping into even better ready-made situations than tDurant and gOden had to work with: cKevin Love joins a fully stocked UCLA roster coming off of its second straight Final Four; pDerrick Rose gets handed the reins to drive the team at Memphis with everybody back from last year's Elite Eight run; and bEric Gordon has a proven star in fD.J. White waiting for him at Indiana along with talented fellow recruits as well. fKyle Singer(Duke), fPatrick Patterson(Kentucky), gO.J. Mayo(USC) and tMichael Beasley(Kansas State) all face more daunting challenges in that they'll be expected to hit the ground running as leaders of teams with elite aspirations. pJonny Flynn will vie with fDonte Green just to be the best GC on his own team at Syracuse. cAndrew Ogilvy will be hard-pressed to lead Vanderbilt back to another Sweet 16 finish. A winning record and a .500 finish in the tough Pac-10 would be considered success for tJames Harden at Arizona State.

The influx of the GCs last year (all to major conference programs) was supposed to be the death knell for the mid-majors. Instead, we saw Butler knock off four tournament teams to win the NIT SEASON TIP-OFF and then prove that was no fluke by finishing with a run to the Sweet 16 in the NCAAs. Southern Illinois, which edged Butler in the marquee matchup of ESPN's BRACKETBUSTERS event, led a strong contingent of Missouri Valley Conference teams by earning a Sweet 16 spot of its own. Virginia Commonwealth knocked off Duke to make a splash in the name of the Colonial Athletic Association. Winthrop beat Notre Dame to claim the only NCAA win in Big South history. And Davidson of the Southern Conference put a scare into Maryland before losing in the first round. Bradley(MVC) and Marist(Metro Atlantic) each won a round in the NIT as well. Things may not be so rosy this year, though. Butler returns four starters (including gA.J. Graves) but not its coach, and Davidson returns all five (especially gStephen Curry); but the likes of SIU (and the other MVC powers), VCU, Winthrop and Marist all lost key stars. George Mason(Colonial) has all five starters back from a team that just missed the postseason; but other than that, it looks like slim pickings on paper early on for the mid-majors this year.

None of last year's elite teams is ready to instantly take the mantle of preseason favorite without skipping a beat. UCLA lost its best player in bArron Afflalo (but GC cKevin Love is certainly as good a replacement as you could hope for). Georgetown lost fJeff Green (but still has the nation's best center in cRoy Hibbert). Swapping gJeremy Hunt for GC gDerrick Rose should make Memphis better. Kansas lost fJulian Wright but added some young talent. North Carolina lost GC fBrandan Wright but didn't add any significant new players. Likewise, Oregon lost gAaron Brooks but will basically stand pat with the rest of its guard cadre. Tennessee has four starters back (led by gChris Lofton) plus some great new talent (Iowa transfer fTyler Smith [who's immediately eligible without having to sit out a year by special permission due to his father's illness]). Pittsburgh lost cAaron Gray; Texas A&M lost its best player (gAcie Law) and its coach (Billy Gillispie, who took the job at Kentucky). Southern California and Vanderbilt swapped talent for talent: (out tNick Young, in GC gO.J. Mayo at USC; and out tDerrick Byars, in GC cAndrew Ogilvy at Vandy). Ohio State still has a few leftovers in gJamar Butler and tDavid Lighty while only gWalter Hodge remains at Florida; both programs have had great recruiting classes, but don't expect magic instantly from either squad.

Washington State lost one starter from last year's first-round splash team, but the nucleus led by gDerrick Low remains for a second strong run. Michigan State has everybody back (plus more backcourt help for gDrew Neitzel). Louisville's nucleus returns, but it's still unclear whose team that is. Indiana and Kentucky expect a return to elite status on the backs of GCs bEric Gordon and fPatrick Patterson, respectively. Maryland has some talent left, while Wisconsin and Purdue must rely heavily on a bumper crop of freshmen. Xavier hopes to repeat last year's splash and restore the Atlantic 10 to "Seventh Major" status (with the help of St. Joseph's and Dayton).

Marquette, Stanford and Arkansas return their entire starting fives and hope to improve on last year's first-round flameouts. Arizona still has leftover GC tChase Bundinger, as does Villanova with gScottie Reynolds. Gonzaga and Notre Dame hope the return of wayward stars (fJosh Heytvelt and gKyle McAlarney) will counterbalance the loss of important players from a year ago. Syracuse (with the help of GCs gJonny Flynn and fDonte Green), North Carolina State and Clemson all expect to turn success in last year's NIT into NCAA wins this year. And Kansas State (which lost coach Bob Huggins to West Virginia but held onto GC tMichael Beasley and welcomes back fBill Walker from early season injury last year), UAB (with coach Mike Davis' fine crop of transfers eligible this season), South Carolina and Cincinnati look for a return to prominence with lots of fresh talent arriving. Connecticut has everybody back from last year, and the Huskies figure to be more of a factor this time around, especially early on.

The sudden death of coach Skip Prosser over the summer was a terrible blow to the coaching ranks in general. Wake Forest seemed headed for an upturn this season, but now former assistant Dino Gaudio's squad will have more than basketball on their minds all season. Tubby Smith had enough of the pressure at Kentucky and bolted for the vacancy at Minnesota; Billy Gillispie left Texas A&M to take Tubby's spot at UK; Mark Turgeon moved up from Wichita State to TXAM; and Gregg Marshall left Winthrop to coach Wichita State. Tommy Amaker was ousted at Michigan (and wound up at Harvard); John Beilein left West Virginia to coach UMich; and Bob Huggins left Kansas State (after just one year) to take over at his alma mater WVU. Steve Alford left Iowa for New Mexico; and Todd Lickliter left Butler to take the Iowa job. Stan Heath left Arkansas and is now at South Florida, while John Pelphrey moves from South Alabama to Ark; Ronnie Arrow left Texas A&M-Corpus Christi for SBama; and Perry Clark returns to college to take over at TXAM-CC. Reggie Theus (New Mexico State) and Buzz Peterson (Coastal Carolina) left for the NBA; legends Rick Majerus(St. Louis) and Cliff Ellis (Coastal Carolina) return to college. The only place to go is up for new Princeton coach Sydney Johnson '97 after the Tigers finish dead last in the Ivies a year ago. Ex-Mississippi coach Rod Barnes takes over at Georgia State (but will have to wait a year before his crop of transfers become eligible).

The Pac-10 is absolutely loaded with talent from top to bottom (like the ACC used to be before expansion/dilution). The Big East figures to place the most teams in the Top 25 for the bulk of the season. The SEC and Big 10 have big rebuilding jobs at many prominent schools. The Big 12 and the ACC remain young for the most part (but that's not the impediment it used to be in The Age of the Golden Child that we're in for (these next couple of years, at least). Conference USA should be beefed up to a two-team conference again thanks to UAB's resurgence. The Atlantic 10 should continue its upswing from the end of last year. The Mountain West and WAC lost most of the frontline stars from their best teams and may fall back. The Colonial (with George Mason and VCU) has a better shot than the MVC (with only Southern Illinois) at staying out of one-bid conference (1BC) status. The Southern Conference will only avoid 1BC status if Davidson gets upset in the conference tournament. The Mid-Continent Conference has expanded and changed its name to the Summit League (but now that the stars have left Oral Roberts, don't expect to notice any one of these teams this season).

For two years running, ESPN's BRACKETBUSTERS event has featured a marquee matchup between two teams that went on to make the Sweet 16: Wichita State-George Mason in '06, and Southern Illinois-Butler in '07. (Don't expect that trend to continue this year, though.)

We're on the road to San Antonio. (Remember, there's no basement in the Alamo!)

-- Ron

Key games this week:

Monday-Friday, Thursday week-Friday week:

COLLEGE HOOPS/(COACHES VS CANCER) CLASSIC 1st/16s on-campus, @ New York,NY
(Mon-Tue @ Memphis,TN: @Memphis-TNMartin, Richmond-Maine,
Tue-Wed @ Lexington,KY: @Kentucky-CArkansas, GardnerWebb-AlabamaA&M,
Wed-Thu @ Storrs,CT: @Connecticut-MorganSt, Buffalo-{OhioValley},
Thu-Fri @ Norman,OK: @Oklahoma-SanFrancisco, Denver@{ECOklahoma}),

Friday:

NewMexicoSt@OhioU,

Friday-Sunday:

HISPANIC COLLEGE FUND CLASSIC RndRob @ Pittsburgh,PA
(@Pittsburgh, StLouis, NCA&T, {HoustonBaptist}),
TRAVELERS CLASSIC RndRob @ Stanford,CA
(@Stanford, UCSantaBarbara, NorthwesternSt, Harvard),
WORLD VISION CLASSIC RndRob @ Fresno,CA
(@FresnoSt, SanDiegoSt, Liberty, Portland),

Saturday:

@Marquette-IUPUI, @Creighton-DePaul, @Dayton-ETennesseeSt, @Vanderbilt-AustinPeay, @Yale-SacredHeart,

Saturday-Monday week:

WORLD VISION INVITATIONAL RndRob @ Eugene,OR
(@Oregon, WeMichigan, Pacific, Pepperdine),

Sunday:

@Gonzaga-Montana,

Sunday-Wednesday week, Mon-Tue 19-20 Nov:

COLLEGE BASKETBALL EXPERIENCE/(GUARDIANS) CLASSIC 1st/16s on-campus, @ Kansas City,MO
(Sun-Mon week @ College Park,MD: @Maryland-{NFlorida}, Tulsa@Hampton,
Mon week-Tue week @ Los Angeles,CA: @UCLA-YoungstownSt, WeberSt@{CalStBernardino},
Mon week-Tue week @ Columbia,MO: @Missouri-CMichigan, Fordham-{CMissouri},
Tue week-Wed week @ East Lansing,MI: @MichiganSt-ChicagoSt, LAMonroe@{NoMichigan}),

Sunday-Tue 20 Nov on-campus, Fri-Sat 23-24 Nov:

PHILLY CLASSIC RndRob on-campus, @ Philadelphia,PA
(Virginia, SetonHall, @Drexel, LoyolaMD, @Penn, Navy, RobertMorris, Howard).

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Top 25 - 07 Nov 5: PRESEASON - [] Column

1. UCLA
2. Kansas
3. Memphis
4. Tennessee
5. Georgetown
6. North Carolina
7. Oregon
8. Michigan State
9. Washington State
10. Indiana
11. Marquette
12. Louisville
13. Pittsburgh
14. Texas
15. Kentucky
16. Texas A&M
17. Duke
18. Syracuse
19. Southern California
20. Ohio State
21. Butler
22. Gonzaga
23. North Carolina State
24. Clemson
25. Davidson

Worth keeping an eye on:

Alabama, Alabama-Birmingham, Arizona, Arkansas, Bradley, Florida, George Mason, Kansas State, Notre Dame, Saint Joseph's, Southern Illinois, Stanford, Virginia Commonwealth, Washington, Xavier.