07 Mar12 - The Big Squeeze

Volume XI, No. 19 - 07 Mar 12

The Big Squeeze

Before jumping ahead to the NCAA tournament and the NIT, let's try and parse through the glut of games last week. At the beginning of the week, there were seven teams (Ohio State, UCLA, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, Texas A&M and Kansas) in the main conversation vying for #1 seeds with Georgetown and Memphis ready to jump up and steal one if enough of them faltered. When it was all over, we still have five teams that had won their BCS regular season title and took the conference tournament crown as well: Florida, North Carolina, Ohio State, Kansas and Georgetown. Squeezing those five teams into four slots, the Hoyas were the odd team out (but they were probably the most impressive of the bunch over the weekend, turning in great performances against strong opponents playing well). Yes, Memphis had no trouble winning the Conference USA tournament (on their own home floor) to complete an undefeated run through the league; but no other team from C-USA made the postseason at all. The Tigers' claim to fame is an early a December rout of Kentucky and a narrow road win at Gonzaga in February. (A similar win over GU is also the only selling point for the two-word Nevada Wolf Pack, by the way).

Florida did indeed turn the switch back on as it rolled through the SEC tournament without facing any of the pretournament favorites (Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt). Instead, the Blue faithful are up in arms over Tubby Smith and UK's longest drought without winning the SEC tournament or making the Final Four. Arkansas saved coach Stan Heath's job by making the final (knocking off Vanderbilt 72-71 along the way) and snatching an at-large NCAA bid away from the likes of West Virginia/Kansas State/Drexel. North Carolina took out Florida State (73-@58) and Boston College (71-56) impressively and outlasted upstart N.C. State in the ACC final, 89-80 (but fTyler Hansbrough's broken nose has hampered his effectiveness). The one-word NCSU Wolfpack only managed to steal an NIT bid away from teams like Washington/Iowa/Akron. Ohio State handed Wisconsin a convincing 66-49 win in the Big 10 final to definitively settle the score between those two (and raising concern as to how much the loss of fBrian Butch means to the Badgers). Kansas looked ready to make a deep NCAA run with a thrilling 88-84(OT) win over Texas in the Big 12 final (despite being down by 22 points in the first half). Player of the Year tKevin Durant was more than ready for prime time: 29p13r v Baylor as UTx rallied from a 20-point deficit to win 74-69 , 26p including a clutch three-pointer as Texas beat Oklahoma State 69-@64, and 37p against Kansas.

UCLA lost its shot at a #1 seed with a @69-76(OT) loss to California in the Pac-10 quarterfinal as gArron Afflalo only had 3 points. Have the Bruins (like Wisconsin) suddenly come up short right when everything is on the line? Getting a #2 seed didn't really hurt them: they still get to play in the Sacramento Pod and the West(San Jose) Regional. Meanwhile, it was Oregon that rolled through Arizona (69-50), Cal (81-63) and USC (81-57 behind gBryce Taylor's 32p) to take the Pac-10 crown. The Ducks' potent GGGTF lineup is the equal of any team out there in a finesse shootout. Texas A&M succumbed to the Jekyl-and-Hyde performance of Oklahoma State, losing 56-@57 on fMario Boggan's game-winner in the Big 12 quarters. OkSU plays like a Top 10 team in front of an Oklahoma crowd with thrilling wins over Texas, Texas A&M and Pittsburgh; but they're also 1-9 on the road. (Their reward: a #2 seed and two possible home games in the NIT.)

Georgetown found an offensive flow not seen all season as it rolled through the Big East tournament, beating Villanova (62-57 after starting the game 26-2), Notre Dame (84-82 behind fJeff Green's 30p12r;GWFG), and Pittsburgh (65-42 behind 21p from fGreen). The Big East tournament field was the strongest of all. Pittsburgh had two great wins of its own over Louisville (65-59) and Marquette (89-79), Louisville beat West Virginia (82-71(OT)), Notre Dame beat Syracuse (89-83), and Marquette, West Virginia, Syracuse and Villanova all had first-round wins. None of those teams played badly. It's too bad there weren't enough at-large bids for WVU and 'Cuse -- blame Butler and Xavier for failing to secure automatic bids and allowing the likes of Wright State and George Washington to play in the NCAAs instead of the NIT.

In the WAC and Mountain West, hosts New Mexico State and UNLV were able to take the conference tournament in front of home crowds. Both were #2 seeds in their draws, though; so those weren't egregious results that stole bids away. But on a neutral court, fourth-seeded Utah State (which beat Nevada 79-77 in the semis) might have been able to reverse its 70-@72 loss to New Mexico State; and top-seeded BYU probably could have held onto its early lead over UNLV instead of losing 70-@78.

24-7 Akron has lost seven games by a combined total of just 21 points -- they were, by far, the strongest-rated team in the MAC, but thanks to a three-point bank shot "at" the buzzer, it's Miami(Ohio) going to the NCAA tournament after a @53-@52 win in the final; and the Zips lived up to their name 'cause they have no postseason to show for it. (Toledo received the automatic bid into the NIT as the regular season champ.) The America East and Patriot held off playing their finals for several days in order to squeeze into ESPN's television schedule. The games were worth the wait, though. After losing twice in the regular season, #2-seed Albany won 60-@59 at #1-seed Vermont behind bJamar Wilson's 22p7r6a. Holy Cross won the rubber match with Bucknell @74-66 behind 28p6r from bTorey Thomas and 23p from gKeith Simmons.

Maybe only three NCAA bids went to teams that "shouldn't have" gotten in. Xavier abdicated its A-10 spot, losing 71-79 to Rhode Island in the semis and #3-seed George Washington happily took the extra spot, beating URI in the final 78-69. Wright State is a solid team, but it might not have gotten an at-large bid if it hadn't been able to beat Butler @60-55 in the Horizon final. (The win was no fluke -- the Raiders' gDaShaun Wood is a great scorer -- but Butler beat that team by 31 points the first time around before losing two straight. WSU's smallish frontcourt isn't bothered by the Bulldogs' perimeter weave the way BCS teams with big forwards who aren't comfortable defending on the three-point line were in the NIT SEASON TIP-OFF.) Arkansas' run to the SEC final wasn't an abdication by anyone in particular -- they beat Vandy, but the Commodores were going to be an at-large team themselves anyway. Looking at the seeds of the last teams into the NCAAs, it's Xavier, Texas Tech, Georgia Tech, Stanford, Illinois, Arkansas and Old Dominion, in that order. You see that nearly all of those spots were taken by middling teams from BCS leagues. ODU just snuck in with the last spot (while Missouri State and Appalachian State were left on the sidelines). (Spare a thought for Kansas State, which finished fourth in the Big 12 and beat fifth-place Texas Tech 66-45 in the conference quarterfinals only to watch TXT get in while KSU sits out.)

Washington State (3), Southern Illinois (4) and Butler (5) were rewarded for strong seasons, but they're probably seeded too high and they won't enjoy being the Hunted as much as being the Hunter. Marquette (8), Michigan State (9) and Creighton (10) are probably seeded too low. It's too bad (8)Marquette-(9)Michigan State is a first-round matchup -- that could easily be a second-rounder with a spot in the Sweet 16 on the line. (5)USC-(12)Arkansas, (5)VirginiaTech-(12)Illinois, (6)Notre Dame-(11)Winthrop, (7)Nevada-(10)Creighton, (8)Kentucky-(9)Villanova all also seem more like second-round games. (5)Butler and (12)Old Dominion are probably worse off playing each other than BCS teams whose size could be used against them by those two. It was a strong year for teams west of the Mississippi; too bad we don't have one more Pod out west so more of those teams would have a closer first couple of games: Kansas has to play in Chicago, Texas A&M in Lexington, and Texas has to play in Spokane. (Meanwhile, good old North Carolina gets to sit pretty in the ACC 1-designated Pod in Winston-Salem.

The streamlined NIT is good and bad. By giving automatic bids to conference regular season champs (not a bad thing), it has created the same problem the NCAA has. This year the bottom eight seeds were all automatic qualifiers; so that left only 24 at-large invitations for what used to be as much as a 40-team tournament (now pared down to 32). For the most part, though, the matchups are great. These are the games I wish we'd see (but never will) in ESPN's BRACKETBUSTERS event: the middle-of-the-pack BCS teams facing the upper echelon mid-major teams. Those are the ones vying for the last few at-large NCAA berths, but they never face other directly. The only bad thing is that here the Big Boys get all the home games. (Only Missouri State, Drexel and Bradley were seeded high enough to host their first round game.)

The Big One is here, folks! Let's see if the up-and-down style of the Pac-10 teams fares better in tournament play than the plodding station-to-station style we saw in the Big 10. Teams that struggle to score can be in trouble early on.

-- Ron

Key games this week:

NCAA
Tuesday:

NCAA PLAY-IN OpenRd/128s @ Dayton OH

• [W17]Niagara v [W17]FloridaA&M

Thursday, Saturday:

NCAA POD 1stRd/64s, 2ndRd/32s @ Winston-Salem, NC

• @ [E1]N Carolina v [E16]Ea Kentucky
• [E2]Georgetown v [E15]Belmont
• [E7]Boston Col v [E10]Texas Tech
• [E8]Marquette v [E9]Michigan St

NCAA POD 1stRd/64s, 2ndRd/32s @ Lexington, KY

• @ [S1]Ohio St v [S16]C Connecticut St
• [S3]Texas A&M v [S14]Penn
• @ [S6]Louisville v [S11]Stanford
• [S8]BYU @ [S9]Xavier

NCAA POD 1stRd/64s, 2ndRd/32s @ Sacramento, CA

• [W2]UCLA v [W15]Weber St
• [E3]Washington St v [E14]Oral Roberts
• [E6]Vanderbilt v [E11]Geo Washington
• [W7]Indiana v [W10]Gonzaga

NCAA POD 1stRd/64s, 2ndRd/32s @ Buffalo, NY

• @ [W3]Pittsburgh v [W14]Wright St
• [M4]Maryland v [M13]Davidson
• [M5]Butler v [M12]Old Dominion
• [W6]Duke v [11]VCU

Friday, Sunday:

NCAA POD 1stRd/64s, 2ndRd/32s @ New Orleans, LA

• [M1]Florida v [M16]Jackson St
• [S2]Memphis v [S15]N Texas
• [S7]Nevada v [S10]Creighton
• [M8]Arizona v [M9]Purdue

NCAA POD 1stRd/64s, 2ndRd/32s @ Chicago, IL

• [W1]Kansas v [W17]Niagara/[W17]FloridaA&M
• [M2]Wisconsin v [M15]Texas A&M-CC
• [M7]UNLV v [M10]Georgia Tech
• [W8]Kentucky v [W9]Villanova

NCAA POD 1stRd/64s, 2ndRd/32s @ Spokane, WA

• @ [M3]Oregon v [M14]Miami-OH
• [E4]Texas v [E13]New Mexico St
• [E5]USC v [E12]Arkansas
• [M6]Notre Dame v [M11]Winthrop

NCAA POD 1stRd/64s, 2ndRd/32s @ Columbus, OH

• [W4]So Illinois v [W13]Holy Cross
• [S4]Virginia v [13]Albany
• [S5]Tennessee v [S12]Long Beach St
• [W5]Virginia Tech v [W12]Illinois

NIT
Tuesday:

1stRd/32s on-campus

• @ [e1]W Virginia v [e8]Delaware St
• @ [e2]Oklahoma St v [e7]Marist
• @ [e3]Drexel v [e6]NC State
• @ [e4]Massachusetts v [e5]Alabama
• @ [n1]Mississippi St v [n8]MS Valley St
• @ [n2]Florida St v [n7]Toledo
• @ [n3]Michigan v [n6]Utah St

Wednesday:

1stRd/32s on-campus

• @ [n4]Bradley v [n5]Providence
• @ [w1]Air Force v [w8]Austin Peay
• @ [w2]Kansas St v [w7]Vermont
• @ [w3]DePaul v [w6]Hofstra
• @ [w4]Georgia v [w5]Fresno St
• @ [s1]Clemson v [s8]E Tennessee St
• @ [s2]Syracuse v [s7]S Alabama
• @ [s3]Missouri St v [s6]San Diego St
• @ [s4]Mississippi v [s5]Appalachian St

Thursday:

16s on-campus [at higher seed]

• @[e1]WVirginia/[e8]DelawareSt v [e4]Massachusetts/[e5]Alabama
• @[n2]FloridaSt/[n7]Toledo v [n3]Michigan/[n6]UtahSt

Friday:

16s on-campus [at higher seed]

• @[e2]OklahomaSt/[e7]Marist v [e3]Drexel/[e6]NCState

Saturday:

16s on-campus [at higher seed]

• @[n1]MississippiSt/[n8]MSValleySt v [n4]Bradley/[n5]Providence

Sunday:

Monday week:

16s on-campus [at higher seed]

• @[w1]AirForce/[w8]AustinPeay v [w4]Georgia /[w5]FresnoSt
• @[s1]Clemson/[s8]ETennesseeSt v [s4]Mississippi/[s5]AppalachianSt
• @[w2]KansasSt/[w7]Vermont v [w3]DePaul/[w6]Hofstra
• @[s2]Syracuse/[s7]SAlabama v [s3]MissouriSt/[s6]SanDiegoSt