07 Feb12 - Three Races

Volume XI, No. 15 - 07 Feb 12 - [] Top 25 Ballot Three Races We're into the stretch drive -- the Final 10 games that the NCAA Selection Committee stresses as the most important -- and there are three separate races going on. The first race is for the nominal conference regular season titles. Many of those are well on the way to being resolved already. Florida is still undefeated in the SEC (three games ahead of second-place Kentucky) thanks to a fine 64-@61 win in Lexington. The Gators were put to the test by the Wildcats as both cJoakim Noah and fAl Horford sat with foul trouble late in the game. But coach Billy Donovan has given his bench players enough playing time so that they weren't too nervous and there was still tCorey Brewer on hand to make the big plays to preserve the victory. (Despite the "drama", UF led that game wire-to-wire.) Likewise, Memphis is 11-0 and three games ahead of the rest of the pretenders in Conference USA (none of whom will see the light of day in the NCAA tournament, by the way). Winthrop is also unbeaten in the Big South, two games ahead of second-place High Point. (The Eagles have bTorrell Martin back now, so look out for them.)

Nevada is two games up on New Mexico State in the WAC (but the Aggies handed the Wolf Pack its only loss). Davidson is two up on Appalachian State (although the Mountaineers beat the Wildcats head-to-head). Vermont beat Albany for the second time and has a two-game lead in the America East. South Alabama squeaked by Western Kentucky is two up on the rest of the field in the weak Sun Belt. East Tennessee State is coasting comfortably in the lowly Atlantic Sun. Austin Peay swept Samford and has a three-game gap over the second-place Bulldogs. No one has a bigger lead than Central Connecticut State's four-game gap in the woeful Northeast. Delaware State has no challengers in the MEAC. Everywhere else, things are still within one game or teams are tied for the lead.

The other two races involve seeding and bids for the NCAA tournament. At the very top, the jockeying for a possible #1-seed is narrowing down to about eight teams. Generally, you need to win your (BCS) conference regular season race and make a decent showing in the conference tournament to lock up a #1 seed. Florida has one all sewed up (barring only major injuries or suspensions). North Carolina hasn't secured control of the ACC race just yet (but huge games this week against Virginia Tech [Tuesday] and at Boston College [Saturday]) will go a long way towards accomplishing that). UCLA threw a wrench into its plans for a #1-seed with a shocking 65-@70 loss at West Virginia. (Granted, pDarren Collison didn't play and only gArron Afflalo can get his own shot on that team, but they had more problems defensively with the Mountaineers' spread-and-shoot offense than should have been the case for a #1-seed.) As long as the Bruins win the tough Pac-10, though, they should still take the third #1-seed. The fourth #1-seed is very much up for grabs. It had seemed to be destined for the ultimate winner of the Big 10 between Wisconsin and Ohio State (who still have one, and probably two more meetings yet to come), but those two teams have been grinding away unimpressive wins in a weakened league the past few weeks. Meanwhile, Texas A&M has turned in spectacular performances against Kansas (a long shot for a #1-seed if TXAM stumbles and the Jayhawks can beat them in the Big 12 tourney final) and also a @100-82 throttling of Texas (despite 28p15r from tKevin Durant). Now even Pittsburgh is in the running thanks to its own 60-@47 rout of West Virginia only three days before UCLA couldn't handle the same challenge with a win at all. [The mostly likely pick will be Texas A&M, which seems to be handling its opponents with the greatest ease.]

There is also some competition for middle seeding as well, but that's very limited in its scope. A Top-16 seed (and preferential choice of pod) is of some great value. Teams like Washington State, Memphis and Nevada are probably safely in that group. Butler was also safely in the Top 16 for most of the season, but a 65-@77 loss at Wright State has not only cost them that lofty place, but the Bulldogs have also lost control of the Horizon League conference race ... again. (This despite a fabulous performance only days earlier when they sank 20 three-pointers in a 92-@50 rout at Cleveland State. In fact, it's gA.J. Graves who's leading the nation in free-throw shooting at 96%, ahead of Gonzaga's gDerek Raivio (95%) with three-time defending champ gBlake Ahearn of Missouri State currently third at 93%.) Southern Illinois beat Creighton, @72-68, in another outstanding MVC game. The Salukis don't have a shot at a Top-16 seed, but they could be a #5- or a #6- (and ironically wind up on the other end of those 5-12 matchups in which they made their name as upset underdogs in the first place).

Of course, the other major race is the positioning of teams for a possible at-large bid should they need it. Butler's stumbling doesn't help that situation because Wright State wouldn't get a bid on its own as things stand now. Worse news is that Gonzaga is falling apart at the seams. Not only did the 'Zags lose again in conference at Loyola Marymount, 61-@67 (falling into a first-place tie with Santa Clara), but they've lost fJosh Heytvelt to suspension after he and one other teammate were arrested for possession of marijuans (sound familiar?) and psychodelic mushrooms. gKyle McAlarney was expelled from school at Notre Dame on just the former charge, so don't expect anything lighter for fHeytvelt. Memphis is playing too strongly to expect any kind of slip-up in Conference USA. Xavier (Atlantic 10), VCU (Colonial), Akron (MAC), Davidson (Southern) and Winthrop (Big South) deserve to get in the tournament, but will have a hard time staying ahead of the also-rans in the Pac-10, SEC, Big East and MVC in comparative conversations.

Things in the ACC are so jumbled that they could wind up squeezing out other teams with a bunch of unexpected at-large bids for the likes of Maryland, Florida State, Virginia and Duke, besides UNC, Boston College and Virginia Tech, for sure. The same is true for the SEC where Vanderbilt, Georgia, Arkansas, Mississippi and LSU might find a way to join Florida, Kentucky, Alabama and Tennessee. In the Big East, Louisville, Providence, Villanova and Syracuse could barge their way in with Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Marquette, West Virginia and Notre Dame. Yikes!

Some missing-in-action teams have returned from their walkabout just in time to salvage a possible at-large bid. Arizona came from behind to beat Oregon on the road, 77-@74 (behind 30p10r from fChase Budinger) and the Wildcats are actually tied with the Ducks for fourth place in the Pac-10. Likewise, Washington got serious and swept California and Stanford. (The Huskies still have a long way to go, though, and things don't get any easier this week with a couple of Top-10 opponents: Washington State [Wednesday] and at Pittsburgh [Saturday].) Tennessee has gChris Lofton back on the court now, and even less than 100% makes a big difference: the Vols beat LSU @70-67 and routed Vanderbilt @84-57. Wichita State has worked its way up to a tie for fourth place in the MVC (while Northern Iowa is in a free fall and may not make the NCAA field after all).

Speaking of free falls: Duke has lost four games in a row for the first time in years. It would take another couple of rocky weeks before the Blue Devils would become an actual bubble team, but they aren't going in the right direction. They tried to run with North Carolina and held the lead for most of the game until fatigue set in in the second half and the Tar Heels cleaned up in the last ten minutes for a 79-@73 win. Then, Maryland pretty much did what it wanted in a comfortable @72-60 later in the week.

The made-for-TV BRACKETBUSTERS event is here and, while there's very little on the line for anyone except the MVC teams, it should make for some entertaining contests. The headliner is Butler hosting Southern Illinois on Saturday. The Salukis are a tough defensive bunch that lacks only height. Butler's perimeter three-point attack has only gotten better since the preseason. Both teams are NCAA locks, so there's no real pressure about losing the game. Nevada should have it easy hosting slumping Northern Iowa. Missouri State hosting Winthrop on Friday should be outstanding. The Eagles are a team that doesn't have any gaudy wins on its resume, but they've played the elite teams tough on the road. They could be ready for a big-time splash come tourney time -- MO State will have its hands full. Probably no one can earn an at-large bid with a BRACKETBUSTER win, but they can sure blow one with a loss. It's a dangerous game for VCU (vs Bradley), Akron (vs Austin Peay), Hofstra (vs Holy Cross) and especially Wichita State (vs Appalachian State). New Mexico State (vs Ohio U) and Creighton (vs Drexel) could probably still get in even with a loss on Saturday.

Not a part of BRACKETBUSTER (but no less important) is Saturday's Memphis at Gonzaga game. Memphis has an outside shot at a #2-seed if some other teams flounder, but they need this win. Gonzaga may find itself NIT-bound (if you can believe it) if it fails here and continues its slumping play.

-- Ron

Key games this week:

Monday:
@Pittsburgh-Louisville, @Georgetown-WVirginia, @Texas-OklahomaSt, @Gonzaga-SantaClara, Davidson@ColofCharleston, CConnecticutSt@SacredHeart,

Tuesday:
@NCarolina-VirginiaTech, @TexasA&M-TexasTech, Kentucky@Tennessee, SoIllinois@MissouriSt, @FloridaSt-GeorgiaTech, @Creighton-NoIowa, @MichiganSt-Michigan, @Hofstra-OldDominion, @Akron-OhioU,

Wednesday:
@Florida-Alabama, WashingtonSt-Washington, @BostonCol-Duke, LongBeachSt@CalStFullerton, @Marist-Manhattan, @SamHoustonSt-StephenFAustin, @WeberSt-Montana, @NoArizona-IdahoSt,

Thursday:
@Arizona-USC, Oregon@California, @NotreDame-Providence, Massachusetts@Fordham, @{UTValleySt}-{NDState},

Friday:
BRACKETBUSTERS on-campus
- (@MissouriSt-Winthrop, @BoiseSt-Albany),

Saturday:
Florida@Vanderbilt, NCarolina@BostonCol, @Pittsburgh-Washington, UCLA@Arizona, Memphis@Gonzaga, Oregon@Stanford, Georgetown@Villanova, Kentucky@Alabama, @Marquette-Louisville, Indiana@Michigan, @Virginia-FloridaSt, @MichiganSt-Iowa, @Syracuse-Connecticut, @Penn-Cornell,

BRACKETBUSTERS on-campus
- (@Nevada-NoIowa, @Butler-SoIllinois, @VCU-Bradley, @Akron-AustinPeay, @NewMexicoSt-OhioU, @Creighton-Drexel, @WichitaSt-AppalachianSt, @OralRoberts-UtahSt, @Hofstra-HolyCross, @Toledo-OldDominion, @FresnoSt-SamHoustonSt, @GeoMason-KentSt, @LongBeachSt-Hawaii, @Marist-Colgate, @WrightSt-CalStFullerton, @LoyolaIL-EaIllinois, @TennesseeTech-NorthwesternSt, @NoArizona-SanJoseSt, @Samford-Evansville, @UCSantaBarbara-EaWashington, @Bucknell-Towson, @MoreheadSt-BowlingGreen, @Rider-MurraySt, @Niagara-Liberty, @Montana-Pacific, @Siena-JamesMadison, @UNCGreensboro-UNCWilmington, @CoCarolina-Canisius, @CalPolySLO-PortlandSt, @IndianaSt-MiamiOH, @IllinoisSt-BallSt, @Drake-WIMilwaukee, @TennesseeSt-LoyolaMD, @CalStNorthridge-ClevelandSt, @Fairfield-William&Mary, @WeMichigan-Valparaiso, @SanFrancisco-UCIrvine, @EaMichigan-Manhattan, @YoungstownSt-EaKentucky, @Northeastern-Maine, @SEMissouriSt-LouisianaTech, @ILChicago-CMichigan, @GeorgiaSt-Elon, @TNMartin-StPeters, @Chattanooga-JacksonvilleSt, @Buffalo-Detroit, @NoIllinois-WIGreenBay, @Idaho-UCRiverside, @Delaware-Iona),

Sunday:
@Clemson-Maryland, @Duke-GeorgiaTech.

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Top 25 - 07 Feb 12 - [] Column

1. Florida (23-2)
2. North Carolina (22-3)
3. Texas A&M (21-3)
4. Pittsburgh (22-3)
5. UCLA (20-3)
6. Wisconsin (24-2)
7. Ohio State (22-3)
8. Kansas (20-4)
9. Washington State (21-4)
10. Memphis (21-3)
11. Arizona (18-7)
12. Oregon (20-5)
13. Nevada (21-2)
14. Boston College (18-6)
15. Georgetown (17-5)
16. Kentucky (16-6)
17. Marquette (20-5)
18. Butler (21-3)
19. Indiana (17-6)
20. Virginia Tech (16-7)
21. Clemson (19-5)
22. West Virginia (18-5)
23. Southern Illinois (20-5)
24. Washington (16-8)
25. Tennessee (17-8)

Honorable Mention:
- - Wright State (19-8), Loyola Marymount (12-14), Xavier (18-7), Old Dominion (19-7), Bucknell (16-8), Vermont (19-6), Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (16-5), South Alabama (16-7), Long Beach State (15-6), Austin Peay (15-7).