07Jan22 - Don't Look Twice

Volume XI, No. 12 - 07 Jan 22 - [] Top 25 Ballot

Don't Look Twice

Half of the Top 25 lost last week. Teams that had strong preseasons have come back to the pack while other teams that were up and down early on have begun to put together some solid play. (Don't look too hard at this week's rankings; the bottom 10 teams could easily be replace by 10 others who are playing about the same calibre ball.)

On the other hand, the top 7 or so teams are pulling away from the field in their various leagues. The gap between Florida and the rest of the SEC is huge at the moment. The Gators keep posting the Ws while everyone else is one-up, one-down. North Carolina responded to its loss at Virginia Tech with a dismantling of Clemson on the road, 77-@55. The Tigers played well for a half but then couldn't keep up with the Tar Heels. UNC then beat down Georgia Tech from start to finish, @77-61. UCLA edged Arizona, @73-69, behind a fine performance from gArron Afflalo(22p). The threes aren't falling for the Wildcats, who also lost 73-@80 at USC and are now sitting in seventh place in the Pac-10. (But that's no reason to miss the track meet on Saturday when North Carolina comes to Tucson.) Wisconsin, Oregon and Ohio State keep on winning as expected. Texas A&M finally played its first ranked team in a month and drubbed Oklahoma State, @67-49. Thanks to Kansas' 64-@69 loss at Texas Tech, it's the Aggies who appear to be the true form team in the Big 12.

Clemson got back on its feet and crushed Boston College, @74-54, as the Eagles are now without cSean Williams, who has been suspended. The Tigers' defense-first style will take them a long way (until they face another offensive juggernaut like UNC who doesn't fear the press). Washington State crushed undermanned rival Washington, @75-47, as cSpencer Hawes sat out with an ankle injury. The Cougars are solid defensively and have a great lead guard in gDerrick Low(20p) and a versatile 'tweener in tKyle Weaver(17p8r4a). WSU is 16-3 / 5-2 in the loaded Pac-10. They aren't going to face any better talent outside the conference when they hit the NCAAs (except maybe for cGreg Oden and tKevin Durant), so expect them to do fine come tournament time. Marquette has recovered from its 0-2 start in Big East play with some fine wins, capped by a 77-@74(OT) win at Pittsburgh as pDominic James(23p5a) sank the game-winning free throws. Everything revolves around James for the Golden Eagles (which is good and bad) and he's beginning to enter the conversation for Player of the Year / first-team All-America.

Oklahoma State and Texas battled into triple-overtime in Stillwater as cMario Boggan had 37 points and 20 rebounds and the game-winning three to boot, @105-103(3OT). (UTx's tKevin Durant had 37 points/12 rebounds of his own and what would have been the game-winning play for the Longhorns before Boggan's heroics.) OSU has played several heart-stopper games against quality opponents, but it also has the two troubling blowout losses on the road at Kansas and now Texas A&M. Alabama was routed, 73-@94, on the road at Vanderbilt and was down 19 points at home to Georgia before coming all the way back to win it at the buzzer, @78-76, on gRonald Steele's jumper. LSU was crushed, 52-@72, on the road at the hands of Arkansas. Those are bad losses for what seemed like solid teams. Tennessee hasn't been run over, but it lost 80-@83 at Auburn, and barely survived, @64-61 at home against lowly South Carolina.

It's Arkansas and surprising Georgia who are putting together some fine basketball. Both teams are in the mold of a three-guard attack on the perimeter with blue-collar banger forwards in the paint doing the dirty work. (When it had gKyle McAlarney, Notre Dame fit this profile as well.) It's a formula that has led to a national championship (Arizona '97). It works. Butler and West Virginia have similar perimeter-oriented attacks, but both of those teams are much less physical inside. Teams that are front-loaded with power forwards -- Alabama and LSU, in particular -- can only stand by and watch when the threes start falling and station-to-station ball just can't keep up the scoring pace. (And don't be surprised if a team like Wisconsin ultimately falls to this style of opponent somewhere down the line.)

The Missouri Valley Conference has already reached the halfway point in regular season play. No one team has been able to separate itself from the others ... at the top, anyway. Wichita State is 3-6 and its only chance now to make the NCAAs is to win the conference tournament. Those preseason wins against "last year's Final Four teams on the road", LSU and George Mason, won't do it much good now. Creighton (6-3) and Northern Iowa (6-2) had mediocre preseasons, so it's good that they've finished the first half up top. Southern Illinois (6-3) appears best suited to receive an at-large bid no matter what having also had a fine preseason. It's looking like the MVC will get 4 bids and no more, so there isn't a lot of room for slip-ups. Worse still, the pairings for ESPN's BRACKETBUSTERS in February are due to be announced. That event spells only trouble for the MVC since it's the only league participating that's likely to get multiple bids. The Colonial is definitely back to a one-bid league. Butler can make the Horizon a two-bid league only if it fails to win its tourney (but despite one overtime road loss, the Bulldogs are properly dispatching the rest of their league opponents without much worry. Too bad the same can't be said for Gonzaga in the WCC.)

Villanova (over Notre Dame and Texas) and Vanderbilt (over Alabama and on the road at Kentucky) are inserting themselves into the conversation at least for league contention. (But one good week doesn't make for a great season. Even 11-9 Evansville won twice at home over Southern Illinois and Missouri State.) New Mexico State beat Nevada @80-73 to tie for the lead in the WAC at 5-1. Indiana keeps on beating the teams it's supposed to, including a 77-@73 road win at Connecticut. Michigan has stepped into the void in the Big 10 as well with a 4-1 record to match the Hoosiers.

Clemson at Duke (Thursday) could be a turning point in the program under Oliver Purnell's tenure. The Blue Devils can be had, especially by a team that pressures the ball like the Tigers do. Oregon at Washington State (Saturday) and Arkansas at Alabama (Saturday) also loom big inside those leagues. If it's going to happen for Georgia this year, it needs to be this week with two big home games: Kentucky (Wednesday) and LSU (Sunday).

-- Ron

Key games this week:

Tuesday:
Indiana@Illinois, FloridaSt@BostonCol, @SoIllinois-NoIowa, @UNLV-SanDiegoSt, @Providence-Villanova,

Wednesday:
@Wisconsin-Michigan, TexasA&M@TexasTech, @Georgia-Kentucky, @Maryland-GeorgiaTech, @LSU-Vanderbilt, @MissouriSt-Creighton, VCU@GeoMason,

Thursday:
UCLA@California, Oregon@Washington, @Duke-Clemson, Butler@LoyolaIL, USC@Stanford, Winthrop@HighPoint, @OralRoberts-Oakland, @NoArizona-Montana, @Belmont-ETennesseeSt, @IdahoSt-WeberSt, @Lipscomb-KennesawSt,

Saturday:
NCarolina@Arizona, UCLA@Stanford, Oregon@WashingtonSt, @OhioSt-MichiganSt, @Indiana-Michigan, Arkansas@Alabama, @Memphis-SoMississippi, @Nevada-UtahSt, @Nevada-UtahSt, AirForce@BYU, USC@California, @NotreDame-Villanova, @Connecticut-Providence, @MissouriSt-Bradley, @Creighton-IndianaSt, @Xavier-Dayton, VCU@Drexel, @Winthrop-CoCarolina, @Akron-WeMichigan, @LoyolaIL-WrightSt, @AustinPeay-Samford, SacredHeart@CConnecticutSt, @Belmont-KennesawSt, ETennesseeSt@Lipscomb, DelawareSt@FloridaA&M,

Sunday:
@Duke-BostonCol, @Clemson-Virginia, Tennessee@Kentucky, @Georgia-LSU, @GeorgiaTech-VirginiaTech,
(BRACKETBUSTERS PAIRING SELECTION).

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Top 25 - 07 Jan 22 - [] Column

1. Florida (17-2)
2. North Carolina (17-2)
3. UCLA (16-1)
4. Wisconsin (19-1)
5. Oregon (18-1)
6. Ohio State (16-3)
7. Texas A&M (16-2)
8. Kansas (15-3)
9. Pittsburgh (17-3)
10. Duke (16-3)
11. Clemson (18-2)
12. Arizona (13-5)
13. Washington State (16-3)
14. Marquette (16-4)
15. Oklahoma State (15-3)
16. Butler (15-2)
17. Indiana (14-4)
18. Arkansas (13-6)
19. Tennessee (14-5)
20. Alabama (15-3)
21. Memphis (15-3)
22. Nevada (16-2)
23. Air Force (17-2)
24. Florida State (14-5)
25. Georgia (10-6)

Honorable Mention:
- - Texas Tech (13-5), USC (14-5), Villanova (12-5), Vanderbilt (12-6), New Mexico State (14-4), Evansville (11-9).