Hoop, Line And Sinker

A weekly column on men's college basketball.

Sunday, October 07, 2018

18 Mar12 - 'Hoos Got Game (PRECONTEST)

Volume XXII, No. 19 - 18 Mar12: PRECONTEST - [] FINAL TOP 25 BALLOT

'Hoos Got Game

Despite its record-setting streak of (14) regular season titles, [1]Kansas hasn't had matching success in the conference tournament (winning "only" 7 of the last 13 crowns). This year's Jayhawks took full advantage of playing "at home" in Kansas City. By seeding, form held through the entire draw: [6c]Oklahoma State beat arch-rival (and fellow Bubble team) [6d]Oklahoma (71-60 as the Cowboys dominated the boards 53-27). In the quarters, [4]@Kansas State edged [5]TCU in overtime (66-64[OT]) while [2a]Texas Tech edged [6b]Texas (73-69 as gKeenan Evans[25p3a] countered 29p from Jacob Young). In the semis, [2b]West Virginia edged [2a]TxT (66-63) while [1]@Kans thumped rival [4]@KanSt (@83-@67 despite 29p4r from Makol Mawien). In the final, [1]@Kansas handled [2b]WVa (@81-70 sinking 15-for-27 on threes), locking up a No.1 seed for the NCAA tournament.
     The BIG EAST tournament at MADISON SQUARE GARDEN was supposed to be [1]Xavier's chance to legitimize its regular season title with a head-to-head win over [2]Villanova but that expected final didn't materialize. [6a]Butler upset [3a]Seton Hall in the quarters, (75-74 as gKamar Baldwin[32p3a] starred [and thanks to Tyler Wideman's game-winner]). The real noise in the tourney came from Bubble-team [3c]Providence, who parlayed a glorious run into an NCAA bid. First, [3c]Prov edged [3b]Creighton in overtime (72-68[OT]) in the quarters; then, the Friars emerged in OT again against [1]Xav (75-72[OT]) in the semis. Meanwhile, [2]Nova thumped [6a]Butl in the semis (87-68 as the VU/Wildcats bolted to a 19-0 lead and coasted). In the final, [3c]Prov gave [2]Nova all it wanted (and them some) before the V-'Cats escaped in overtime (76-66[OT] as bJalen Brunson[31p4a6r] starred), claiming their second-straight crown (and third in four years), locking up a No.1 NCAA seed of their own. (Despite going out early to [3c]Prov, [1]Xav also got a No.1 seed for the NCAAs.)
     The [1]Virginia Cavaliers hardly put a foot wrong all season (losing at West Virginia in December, and in overtime at arch-rival Virginia Tech in February). Still, the Tony Bennett Era has been mostly disappointing in the postseason; but the Wahoos backed up their great regular season by running through the draw of the deepest league in the land. In the 16s, [3c]North Carolina State tripped against lowly [12]Boston College (87-91 as pJerome Robinson[25p6a] starred); Bubble-teams [10a]Notre Dame and [8b]Louisville both pulled off upsets: [10a]ND beat [7]VaTech (71-65 led by pMatt Farrell[22p5a5r]) while [8b]Lville beat [8a]Florida State (82-74 led by pQuentin Snider[19p6a5r]). [3d]North Carolina had a strong run, thumping [3a]Miami(Florida) (82-65 as fTheo Pinson[25p11r] starred) in the quarters; then winning the rubber game with arch-rival [2]Duke (74-69) in the semis. Even better was [1]UVa who dumped [8b]Lville (75-58), beat [3b]Clemson (64-58) in the semis, and finished the job with a win over [3d]UNC (71-63) in the final, claiming the overall No.1 seed for the NCAAs.
     The SEC has been deeper than in many years, but there was no one dominant team (the regular season even finished with co-title champs, [1a]Auburn and [1b]Tennessee). That being the case, the default favorite to win is always "Old Reliable" [4a]@Kentucky playing in front of its "home-away-from-home" Wildcat Nation travelling fans. First, Bubble-team [4b]Missouri tripped against lowly [11b]Georgia (@60-62) (and yet somehow still got an NCAA bid). Bubble [9a]Alabama at least improved its lot, edging [7b]Texas A&M (71-70 as pCollin Sexton[27p5a] starred) and them dumping arch-rival [1a]Aub (81-63 as bSexton[31p7r6to] starred again). [4c]Arkansas upset [3]Florida in the quarters (80-72 controlling the boards 43-28 led by xJaylen Barford[27p10r]) but tanked in the semis against [1b]Tenn (66-84). Meanwhile, "Old Reliable" [4a]@UK thumped [9a]Bama in the semis (@86-63 shooting 64 percent) and edged [1b]UTn in the final (@77-72 as bShai Gilgeous-Alexander[29p3a7r] starred), claiming the UK/Wildcats' FOURTH-STRAIGHT SEC TOURNEY CROWN (but only a No.5 NCAA seed).
     Not much was settled during the regular season in the AMERICAN as the top three teams ([1]Cincinnati, [2a]Wichita State and [2b]Houston) each went 1-1 against the other two. So it was no surprise that two squeak decisions were the results in the tourney. First, [2b]Hous upset [2a]WichSt (77-74 on Rob Gray[33p1a]'s star turn); then, [1]Cincy edged [2b]Hous in the final (56-55 on xGary Clark[20p12r]'s game-winning free throw), earning a No.2 seed for the NCAAs.

The spectacular preseason turned in by [8b]Arizona State ended with a whimper as the Sun Devils fell right away in the PACIFIC-12 tournament to [8a]Colorado (85-97 as six Buffalo players posted double-figures). Otherwise, the only story was [1]Arizona edging in overtime against [3b]UCLA in the semis (78-67[OT] as cDeAndre Ayton[32p14r] dominated) and handling national disappointment [2]USC in the final (75-61 dominating the boards 42-19 led by cAyton[32p18r]), claiming their second-straight TiTo crown (and THIRD IN FOUR YEARS; and a No.4 NCAA seed.)
     All [2]St. Mary's had to do was live up to its seed in the WEST COAST tourney and an NCAA bid should have been assured. Instead, the Gaels fell in the semis to also-ran [3]BYU (72-85 as fYoeli Childs[33p6r;13/18fg] was the difference) only to find no bid waiting in their mailbox ... AAARRRGGGHHH!!! Of course, [1]Gonzaga had no problem cruising past the BY/Cougars (74-54) in the final, claiming its SIXTH-STRAIGHT TiTo CROWN for the GU/Bulldogs(Mark Few)--- OUTSTANDING!!! (and a No.4 NCAA seed.)
     [1]Nevada had an NCAA bid locked up whether or not it won the MOUNTAIN WEST tourney. Whether the MWC turned out to be a two-bid Mid-Major or an Anti-Spoiler 1BC was in the hands of how [2]Boise State closed the second half of the regular season. Finishing a gap behind the UN/Wolf Pack in the final standings didn't help; but tripping in the quarters to lowly [7a]Utah State (75-78 as pSam Merrill[28p5a5r] starred) turned out to be the Kiss of Death as the NCAA didn't come calling. Then, [1]Nev failed in its role as Anti-Spoiler by tanking in the semis "at home" in Las Vegas against [4b]San Diego State (@73-90 despite 25p10r from xJordan Caroline). The Aztecs completed the job, beating [3]New Mexico in the final (82-75 led by gTony Kell[28p]), claiming a Party-Crasher bid (i.e., forcing Nev to take an At-Large bid away from a deserving team on the Bubble).
     Speaking of Party-Crashers, [3]Davidson stole another bid by winning the ATLANTIC 10 tournament. First, the DU/Wildcats knocked off [2]St. Bonaventure (82-70 shooting 16-for-29 on three-pointers); then, they edged [1]Rhode Island in the final (58-57 on xKevin Grady's game-winner). That forced URI to take an At-Large bid to get into the NCAAs (and put coach Dan Hurley into a twisted moment
feeling his team's failure had taken a bid directly away from brother Bob Hurley's Arizona State squad. It hadn't, as AzSt got in also.)
     Despite the (bottom of) Mid-Major rating of the SUN BELT, [1]Louisiana's lack of quality wins in the preseason meant it wasn't even an Anti-Spoiler as it turned out. (Last week, MVC/[1]Loyola(Illinois) came through a similar challenge in flying colors; not so Lsiana). The Ragin' Cajuns' FOUR-GAP regular season campaign was all for naught when they tripped in the semis ("at home" in New Orleans, no less) against [4]Texas-Arlington (@68-71 as pErick Neal[18p5a6r] led the way). Grateful [2]Georgia State took advantage of the void, handling [4]TxArl in the final (74-61 as bD'Marcus Simonds[27p4a5r] starred), claiming the Jack Dawson bid while Lsiana (the best team [this side of St. Mary's] not to make it into the NCAAs) was NIT-bound.

TiTo champs were the norm inside the Red Swirl:
     In the SOUTHERN final, [1]UNC-Greensboro won the rubber game with [2]East Tennessee State (@62-47 in a defensive struggle) to earn its first trip to the NCAAs in over 15 years.
     In the WAC final, [1]New Mexico State handled [3]Grand Canyon (72-58 led by cJemerrio Jones[15p19r]) for its second-straight crown (and SEVENTH IN NINE YEARS).
     In the MID-AMERICAN final, [1/E1]Buffalo handled [2/W1]@Toledo (76-@66 as bWes Clark[26p5r] starred) for its THIRD CROWN IN FOUR YEARS.
     CONFERENCE USA featured two splashworthy teams in [1]Middle Tennessee and [3]Western Kentucky (and [2]Old Dominion was solid as well); but neither one came through to win the tourney. [1]MidTenn tripped in the quarters in overtime against lowly [9a]Southern Mississippi (68-71[OT]). [3]Western Kentucky did upset [2]ODU in the semis (57-49); but tripped in the final against [4]Marshall (66-67
as pJon Elmore[27p6a5to] starred). It's the first NCAA trip in over 30 years for Jack Dawson [4]Marsh.
     In the BIG SKY, [1]Montana rolled to the TiTo crown, beating [3a]Eastern Washington in the final (82-65 despite 15p4a7r from the conference's career-leader bBogdan Bliznyuk).
     [1]Vermont joined SUNB/[1]Louisiana and CUSA/[1]Middle Tennessee as the best 1BC squads not to make the NCAA tournament. After going undefeated at home (including two head-to-head blowout wins), [1]@Vmt managed to trip in the final against [2]Maryland-Baltimore County (@62-65 on gJairus Lyles[27p]'s game-winning three at the buzzer) -- the first NCAA in 10 years (and second ever) for [2]MdBc.
     In the rubber-game SUMMIT final, [1]South Dakota State outpaced arch-rival [2]South Dakota (@97-@87 as bDavid Jenkins[29p6r] was the extra star difference-maker while xMike Daum[25p11r] dueled 30p4a7r from bMatt Mooney) -- the third-straight tourney crown (and FIFTH IN SEVEN YEARS) for the Jackrabbits.
     In the COLONIAL final, [1a]College of Charleston completed the three-game sweep of [1b]Northeastern in overtime (@83-76[OT] as bJoe Chealey[32p3a5r;16/16ft] dueled 30p4a from gVasa Pusica) -- it's the first trip to NCAAs in nearly 20 years for the CofC/Cougars.
     After the BIG WEST Wars of the regular season, it's no surprise things didn't produce a TiTo champ. Instead, [4]@Cal State-Fullerton edged [1]@UC-Davis in the semis (@55-@52), then dumped [2b]@UC-Irvine in the final (@75-@55 as bKyle Allman[26p6r] starred) -- it's the first crown in 10 years (and third ever) for the Titans.
     The SOUTHLAND Wars were no different. It was perennial favorite [3]Stephen F. Austin who went through both regular season co-champs: first, handling [1b]Nicholls in the semis (@78-66 as Shannon Bogues[27p] countered 26p3a12r from cRoddy Peters); then, edging [1a]Southeast Louisiana in the final (@59-55) to claim its FOURTH CROWN IN FIVE YEARS.

In Flop-land, Jack Dawsons or fair-swap replacements were the norm:
     With [1a]Rider and [1b]Canisius already out of the way; "Old Reliable" [4]Iona claimed its third-straight MAAC tourney crown (each without winning the regular season), beating [5b]Fairfield in the final (@83-71 as pRoland Griffin[29p5a7r;11/11ft] starred).
     With [1]Northern Kentucky already out of the way, [2]Wright State cruised in the HORIZON final, beating [8a]Cleveland State (74-57) -- it's the first trip to the NCAAs in over 10 years for the Raiders.
     After splitting in the regular sesaon, [1b]@Pennsylvania needed every bit of its home-court advantage playing the IVY tournament in The PALESTRA (as well a bad-luck injury to Crimson star fSeth Towns) to edge co-title champ [1a]Harvard (@68-65) to claim its first trip to the NCAAs in over 10 years.
     Perhaps no one (this side of SUNB/Louisiana and AMERE/Vermont) was more disappointing than gap-title-champ [1]Wagner (who went undefeated at home all season) until laying an egg in the NORTHEAST final, falling to lowly [4a]Long Island (@61-71 as fJoel Hernandez[32p7r] starred).
     After the regular-season SWAC Wars yielded title-champ [1]Grambling (ineligible for the postseason), it was up for grabs for the automatic NCAA bid. "Old Reliable" [2c]@Texas Southern claimed its second-straight crown (and FOURTH IN FIVE YEARS), thumping [2a]Arkansas-Pine Bluff in the final (@84-69 led by pDemontrae Jefferson[15p7a6r]). (Maybe it's time to move the conference tournament away from Houston?)
     With the regular-season MEAC Wars ending with tri-champs, it was more of a surprise that "Old Reliable" [6]North Carolina Central claimed its second-straight crown (and THIRD IN FIVE YEARS). [1b]Bethune-Cookman tripped right away in the quarters against [7a]Morgan State (77-78 as bTiwian Kendley[31p5r;GWFTs] dueled 30p5r from bBrandon Tabb). [6]NcCu took care of the other two itself: first, tripping [1c]Savannah State in the quarters (58-56 as cRaasean Davis[16p20r] dominated the paint); then, knocking of [1a]@Hampton in the final (71-@63).

- - - - - -

Here's the full list of Tito champions (including Anti-Spoilers) vs. the bid-stealing Party-Crashers as well as Jack Dawsons who are attending The Dance under false pretenses:

TiTo Party Crasher Jack Dawson

BIG 12: [1]+2 Kansas
ACC: [1]+4 Virginia
AMER: [1]+2 Cincinnati
MVC: [1]+4 Loyola(IL)[AS]
PAC-12: [1]+2 Arizona
WCC: [1] Gonzaga
OVC: [1] Murray State
SOCON: [1] UNC-Greensboro
WAC: [1]+2 New Mexico St.
MAC: [1/E1]+2 Buffalo
PAT: [1]+4 Bucknell
SKY: [1]+2 Montana
SUMMIT: [1]+2 South Dakota St.
COLON: [1a]+2 Col.Charleston
IVY: [1b]+3 Pennsylvania

MWC: [4b] San Diego St.
A-10: [3]+3 Davidson

SUN B: "[1]+4 Louisiana" (4-[2]Georgia State)
C-USA: "[1] Middle Tennessee" (2-[4]Marshall)
AMER E: "[1]+3 Vermont" (3-[2]MD-Baltimore Co.)
MAAC: "[1]+3 Rider/Canisius" ([4]+2 Iona)
A-SUN: "[1]+2 FL Gulf Coast" (2-[2]+2 Lipscomb
NEC: "[1]+2 Wagner" (2-[4a]Long Island)
MEAC: "[1] Bethune-Cookman/Hampton/Savannah St."
(2-[6]+2 N.C. Central)

That's 15 thoroughbreds against 9(7) imposters -- not as strong as last year (20 up, 8[6] down). Still, it's a solid representation of the best performing teams from the regular season.
     In an interview, an official from the NCAA Seeding Committee said "strength of schedule" was based on placing opponents into "four quadrants" -- (can you say: "B-Major, Mid-Major, Red Swirl and Flop"!?) with wins away from home counting extra, wins in November/December counting equally with wins in January/February as well as the "objective" RPI Rating. (To be honest, that description is very close to my own formula I use for rating teams for my Tableaus (see Ron's Team Tableau and Ron's Conference Tableau inside the Hoops Contest pages).
     Apparently, the "Last Four Teams In" were UCLA, St. Bonaventure, Arizona State and Syracuse with the "First Four Out" being Notre Dame, Baylor, St. Mary's and USC. For me, Even with the loss to BYU, St. Mary's should have been a lock for an At-Large NCAA bid. Don't see how St. Bonaventure gets in for finishing second in the A-10 over StMary for finishing second in WCC.
     Among last week's non-lock teams, only San Diego State(won @MWCt), Davidson(won A10t), Louisville(beat Florida State), Notre Dame(beat Virginia Tech), Alabama(edged Texas A&M, thumped Auburn), Providence(OT-edged Creighton, OT-edged Xavier) and Oklahoma State(beat Oklahoma) all improved their lot; while St. Bonaventure(lost Davidson), Florida State(lost Louisville), Oklahoma(lost Oklahoma State), Boise State(tripped Utah State), Missouri(tripped Georgia), Tulsa(tripped Memphis) and Utah(tripped Oregon) all took a step back.
     Missouri has absolutely no business receiving a bid. (If the argument is that superstar individuals make the difference, then Notre Dame is rated way better [even including the losses when cBonzie Colson was out]. OK, pTrae Young gets Oklahoma in despite a loss; but GC fMichael Porter Jr. is a superstar on paper, only -- he's done nothing on court to warrant getting the UM/Tigers in.) The splashworthy 1BC's who didn't get in (SUNB/Louisiana[tripped Texas-Arlington], CUSA/Middle Tennessee[tripped Southern Mississippi] and AMERE/Vermont[tripped Maryland-Baltimore County]) all had no quality preseason wins to recommend them. The Mega-ACC matched last year's all-time high of 9 bids. The SEC set a new all-time high with 8 bids. The BIG 12 matched its all-time high once again with 7 bids.
     On the plus side of the cut line, I had: Vermont, Louisiana, Middle Tennessee, South Dakota, Belmont, Western Kentucky, Butler(+Seton), Louisville(+FlaSt), East Tennessee State, Oklahoma(-OkSt), Arizona State(lost Utah) and USC. On the minus side, I had: Syracuse, Texas, Boise State(-UtahSt), UCLA, Alabama(+TxAm,+Aub), Missouri(-UGa) and Providence(+Creigh,+Xav).

4-GAP/TiTo champ Virginia as the overall No.1-seed is a no-brainer. Tourney champ Villanova and Gap/TiTo champ Kansas as No.2 and No.3 is sixes. I'd have taken gap/TiTo Cincinnati over didn't-really-earn-it title champ Xavier as the fourth No.1 seed. (Besides Providence), North Carolina and Arizona improved their lot the most since the PreSixteen (Week 15); Auburn and Rhode Island's's stock dropped the most. No real problem with any of the Top eight seeds, frankly.
     With at least a No.4 seed and multiple bids, the PACIFIC-12(Arizona) qualifies as a B-Major (by seed, if not by rating). With no second bid (but a No.4 seed), the WEST COAST(Gonzaga) qualifies as a "Power"-Anti-Spoiler. With multiple bids (all below No.4), the only official Mid-Major is the ATLANTIC 10. With its second bid being a Party-Crasher, the MOUNTAIN WEST is officially only an Anti-Spoiler league (along with the MISSOURI VALLEY); with no bid for Louisiana, the SUN BELT only qualifies as a regular 1BC.
     The BIG 12 got a raw deal with [E3]Texas Tech and [E5]West Virginia being placed in the same region; same for the BIG 10 with [W3]Michigan and [W5]Ohio State. For the splashworthy 1BCs who got in, some have very winnable matchups ([M12]New Mexico State/WAC, [S11]Loyola{Illinois}/MVC) but some don't ([E12]Murray State/OVC, [W14]Montana/SKY, [E14]Stephen F. Austin/SLAND, [S13]Buffalo/MAC, [W13]UNC-Greensboro/SOCON, [W12]South Dakota State/SUMMIT).
     Worst overseeding decisions: [W8]Missouri and [W10]Providence are not even close; [M4]Auburn, [E6]Florida, [W7]Texas A&M, [E9]Alabama (all from the SEC somehow) all rated significantly lower within the overall field than they were placed. Worst underseeding decisions: [M12]New Mexico State; [M6]TCU; [S11]Loyola(Illinois), [E12]Murray State, [W14]Montana, [E11b]St. Bonaventure all deserved better than they were given.
     The perennial powers Kansas(Wichita), North Carolina(Charlotte) and Michigan State(Detroit) all got cushy Pods that may as well be free passes through to the Sweet 16 -- Ugh. At least Virginia took Duke's traditional spot in Charlotte. (Will the young Blue Devils succumb to an upset-minded crowd in Pittsburgh?) Texas Tech got Dallas; but Tennessee didn't get Nashville.

Toughest first-round games: [M5]Clemson/[M12]New Mexico State, S6]Miami(Florida)/[S11]Loyola(Illinois), [E6]Florida/{E11b]St. Bonaventure} and [E7]Arkansas/[E10]Butler. Best chance for a 1BC upset: [S11]Loyola(Illinois) over [S6]Miami(Florida) and [M12]New Mexico State over [M5]Clemson. Pittsburgh gets the star power with [E1]Villanova and [M2]Duke. [E3]Texas Tech/[E14]Stephen F. Austin in Dallas will be a blast. [S2]Cincinnati vs [S7]Nevada in Round Two is massive; ditto [S4]Arizona vs [S5]Kentucky.

- - - - - -

This might be the first time since they created the First Four "Play-In" that the perennially two worst conferences (the MEAC and SWAC) were both put in
(and against each other, to boot). In the past, there was probably a reluctance to do so because of the terrible history of the NCAA's deliberately trying to exclude HBCUs (Historically Black Colleges and Universities) from the tournament. It's a measure of progress that they can objectively place these conferences there and without much protest that I can tell.
     Even though the MEAC and SWAC have been markedly worse than the next lowest rated conferences on a perennial basis, it's also true that there is an entire cluster of Flop (i.e., "Quad Four"?) conferences all of whom have similar records of futility in the tournament. So a reasonable rotation among all of the Flop conferences from one year to the next is probably best (if not fully objective in any given year). To be sure, 1BC Jack Dawsons should always be placed in the Play-In games; but beyond that, it could get discriminatory to always put the MEAC and SWAC in year after year.
     Not counting Open Round Play-In wins, here are the tournament records of the least successful conferences:
PATRIOT        3-26 since 1992
                         (2005: 14/Bucknell[Charles Lee] > 3/Kansas[Keith Langford], 
                          2006:  9/Bucknell[Charles Lee] > 8/Arkansas[Ronnie Brewer], 
                          2012: 15/Lehigh[C.J. McCollum] > 2/Duke[Austin Rivers])
MEAC           3-36 since 1981 (no bid in 1991 when champ was ineligible)
                         (1997: 15/Coppin State[Terquin Mott] > 2/South Carolina[B.J. McKie], 
                          2001: 15/Hampton[Tarvis Williams] > 2/Iowa State[Jamaal Tinsley],
                          2012: 15/Norfolk State[Kyle O'Quinn] > 2/Missouri[Kim English])
SWAC:          2-37 since 1980 (no bid in 1991 when champ was ineligible)
                         (1980: 8/Alcorn State[Larry Smith] > 9/South Alabama[Ed Rains],
                          1993: 13/Southern[Leonard White] > 4/Georgia Tech[James Forrest])
AMERICA EAST:  1-21 since 1997
                         (2005: 13/Vermont[Taylor Coppenrath] > 4/Syracuse[Hakim Warrick]) 
BIG SOUTH:     1-26 since 1991
                         (2007: 11/Winthrop[Torrell Martin] > 6/Notre Dame[Russell Carter])
NORTHEAST:     0-29 since 1989
- - - - - -

Thanks to the weird snubs, the NIT field is strong. It completely sucks that two of the best 1BC title champs have to face each other in Round 1 ([s6]Vermont at [s3]Middle Tennessee). [w6]Louisiana goes on the road against "Big Brother" [w3]LSU. Splashworthy [m4]Western Kentucky actually gets a home game (against [m5]Boston College). [w4]Boise State has the bad luck of travelling against lower-seeded [w5]Washington due to a scheduling conflict. Look for a healthy [e1]Notre Dame to win it all past conferencemate/Bluegrass-rival [s2]Louisville in the semis and motivated [w1]St. Mary's in the final (in a squeak semi past the winner of undermanned [m1]USC/[m4]WeKy). (Pay attention to the experimental rules in play: four 10-minute quarters [with fouls resetting each time], wider lane, deeper three-point arc [international distance].)
     The CBI looks to be all about the WAC with four teams in the 16-team field. "Slumming" WCC/San Francisco should be the favorite; but splashworthy SUMMIT/South Dakota as well as OVC/Jacksonville State, WAC/Grand Canyon and title co-champ MAAC/Canisius all warranted tracking at some point this season.
     The CIT uses the old NIT format without a pre-set bracket. Four teams get byes (SKY/Northern Colorado, SKY/Portland State, SLAND/Sam Houston St and BIGS/Wofford) waiting for 8 teams who play opening-round Play-Ins while another 8 teams round out the first-round of 16s. Each subsequent round is re-seeded subjectively. "Slumming" teams MVC/Drake, WCC/San Diego and SUNB/Louisiana-Monroe should be favorites while MAC/Central Michigan, BIGS/Wofford and MEAC/North Carolina A&T all warranted tracking at some point this season.

- - - - - -

[M1]Kansas got no favors with [M2]Duke and [M3]Michigan State in its region as well (both of whom are arguably better [and certainly more talented]). [W1]Xavier's toughest opposition may well be [W4]Gonzaga even more than [W2]North Carolina. [S1]Virginia has tough [S2]Cincinnati and surging [S4]Arizona and [S5]Kentucky. [E1]Villanova probably has the least scary opposition in its region.
     [S11]Loyola(Illinois) and [M12]New Mexico State both have winnable paths to the Sweet 16.

-- Ron

P.S. If you're interested, the 35th Annual Hoops Contest is now open for entry (through 6:30PMet TUESDAY, 13 MARCH).
Key games this week:

NCAA
Tuesday:
    OpenRd/128s FIRST FOUR @DaytonOH
  • [E11a]UCLA v [E11b]St Bonaventure
  • [E16a]Radford v [E16b]Long Island
Wednesday:
    OpenRd/128s FIRST FOUR @DaytonOH
  • [M11a]Arizona St v [M11b]Syracuse
  • [W16a]NC Central v [W16b]Texas So
Thursday, Saturday:
    1stRd/64s POD @PittsburghPA
  • [E1]Villanova v {[E16a]Radford/[E16b]LongIsland}
  • [E8]Virginia Tech v [E9]Alabama

  • [M2]Duke v [M15]Iona
  • [M7]Rhode Island v [M10]Oklahoma
    1stRd/64s POD @WichitaKS
  • [M1]@Kansas v [M16]Penn
  • [M8]Seton Hall v [M9]NC State

  • [W3]Michigan v [W14]Montana
  • [W6]Houston v [W11]San Diego St
    1stRd/64s POD @DallasTX
  • [E3]@Texas Tech v [E14]@Stephen F Austin (TX)
  • [E6]Florida v {[E11a]UCLA/[E11b]StBonaventure}

  • [S3]Tennessee v [S14]Wright St
  • [S6]Miami-FL v [S11]Loyola-IL
    1stRd/64s POD @BoiseID
  • [W4]@Gonzaga v [W13]UNC-Grensboro
  • [W5]Ohio St v [W12]SD State

  • [S4]Arizona v [S13]Buffalo
  • [S5]Kentucky v [S12]Davidson
Friday, Sunday:
    1stRd/64s POD @CharlotteNC
  • [S1]Virginia v [S16]MD-Baltimore Co
  • [S8]Creighton v [S9]Kansas St

  • [W2]@N Carolina v [W15]Lipscomb
  • [W7]Texas A&M v [W10]Providence
    1stRd/64s POD @NashvilleTN
  • [W1]Xavier v {[W16a]NCCentral/[W16b]TexasSo}
  • [W8]Missouri v [W9]Florida St

  • [S2]Cincinnati v [S15]Georgia St
  • [S7]Nevada v [S10]Texas
    1stRd/64s POD @DetroitMI
  • [E2]Purdue v [E15]Cal St-Fullerton
  • [E7]Arkansas v [E10]Butler

  • [M3]@Michigan St v [M14]Bucknell
  • [M6]TCU v {[M11a]ArizonaSt/[M11b]Syracuse}
    1stRd/64s POD @SanDiegoCA
  • [E4]Wichita St v [E13]Marshall
  • [E5]W Virginia v [E12]Murray St

  • [M4]Auburn v [M13]Col of Charleston
  • [M5]Clemson v [M12]New Mexico St

NIT
Tuesday:
    1stRd/32s on-campus
  • @ [w1]St Mary's v [w8]SE Louisiana
  • @ [e1]Notre Dame v [e8]Hampton
  • @ [m1]USC v [m8]UNC-Asheville
  • @ [s1]Baylor v [s8]Wagner
  • @ [s2]Louisville v [s7]No Kentucky (KY)
  • @ [m2]Oklahoma St v [m7]FL Gulf Coast
  • @ [s3]Mid Tennessee v [s6]Vermont
  • @ [e3]Oregon v [e6]Rider
  • @ [m4]We Kentucky v [m5]Boston Col
Wednesday:
    1stRd/32s on-campus
  • @ [e2]Marquette v [e7]Harvard
  • @ [w2]Utah v [w7]UC-Davis
  • @ [w3]LSU v [w6]Louisiana (LA)
  • @ [m3]Stanford v [m6]BYU
  • @ [s4]Mississippi St v [s5]Nebraska
  • @ [e4]Penn St v [e5]Temple
  • @ [w4]Boise St v [m5]Washington
Friday-Monday week:
    16s on-campus
  • @{[w1]StMarys/[w8]SELouisiana} v {[w4]BoiseSt/[m5]Washington}
  • @{[w2]Utah/[w7]UCDavis} v {[w3]LSU/[w6]Louisiana}

  • @{[e1]NotreDame/[e8]Hampton} v {[e4]PennSt/[e5]Temple}
  • @{[e2]Marquette/[e7]Harvard} v {[e3]Oregon/[e6]Rider}

  • @{[m1]USC/[m8]UNCAsheville} v {[m4]WeKentucky/[m5]BostonCol}
  • @{[m2]OklahomaSt/[m7]FLGulfCoast} v {[m3]Stanford/[m6]BYU}

  • @{[s1]Baylor/[s8]Wagner} v {[s4]MississippiSt/[s5]Nebraska}
  • @{[s2]Louisville/[s7]NoKentucky} v {[s3]MidTennessee/[s6]Vermont}
Tuesday week-Wednesday week:
    Qtrs on-campus
Tue 27 Mar, Thu 29 Mar
    Semis,Final @ New York NY /MSG/
  • {w/StMarys} v {m/USC}
  • {e/NotreDame} v {s/Baylor}

CBI
Tuesday:
    1stRd/16s on-campus
  • (nwB): @ UT Valley v Ea Washington
Wednesday:
    1stRd/16s on-campus
  • (swA): @ S Dakota v N Texas
  • (nwA): @ San Francisco v Colgate
  • (mwA): @ New Orleans v TX-RG Valley
  • (seA): @ Canisius v Jacksonville St
  • (swB): @ Grand Canyon v Mercer
  • (seB): @ Seattle v C Arkansas
  • (mwB): @ Campbell v Miami-OH
Monday week:
    Qtrs on-campus (by region)
  • (sw): {SDakota/NTexas} v {Mercer/GrandCanyon}
  • (nw): {SanFrancisco/Colgate} v {UTValley/EaWashington}
  • (mw): {NewOrleans/TXRGValley} v {MiamiOH/Campbell}
  • (se): {JacksonvilleSt/Canisius} v {Seattle/CArkansas}
Wednesday week:
    Semis on-campus (re-seeded)
Mon 26 Mar, Wed 28 Mar, (if necessary: Fri 30 Mar):
    Finals on-campus (Best of 3)

CIT
Monday:
    1stRd/32s on-campus
  • @ Drake v Abilene Christian (LOU HENSON CLASSIC)
  • @ San Diego v Hartford (RILEY WALLACE CLASSIC)
  • @ Ft Wayne v C Michigan (HUGH DURHAM CLASSIC)
  • @ Liberty v NC A&T ((new)JIM PHELAN CLASSIC)
Wednesday:
    1stRd/32s on-campus
  • @ Ea Michigan v Niagara
  • @ Lamar v TX-San Antonio (TX)
  • @ IL-Chicago v St Francis-PA
Thursday:
    1stRd/32s on-campus
  • @ Austin Peay v LA-Monroe (JOHN McCLENDON CLASSIC)
Friday-Monday week:
    2ndRd/16s on-campus ([1x]Wofford, [1x]Northern Colorado, [1x]Portland State and [1x]Sam Houston State all receive first-round byes.)
Thursday week-Sunday week:
    Qtrs on-campus [re-seeded]
    (4 first-round winners receive byes into the quarters.)
Wed 28 Mar:
    Semis on-campus [re-seeded]
Fri 30 Mar:
    Final on-campus


FINAL TOP 25 - 18 Mar12: PRECONTEST - [] Column
  1. Virginia (31-2) ACC+4 [ACCt] [2v2:NIT.T-O] (vBIG10)
  2. Kansas (27-7) 14-PEAT BIG12+2 [vBIG12t] [3v:HOFI-D-MIAMI] (@SI) (@@CHAMPS) (vSEC)
  3. Villanova (30-4) 5-PEAT BIG5u 3rd/4 [BIG.Et] [3:ATLANTIS]
  4. Xavier (28-5) BIG.E (@BIG10) (vXTOWN)
  5. Michigan State (29-4) BIG10 [v3:PK80B] (@@HORIZ) (vACC)
  6. Cincinnati (30-4) AMER+2 [AMERt] [v3:CAYMAN]
  7. Gonzaga (30-4) 6-PEAT;17TH/18 WCC 6-PEAT;7TH/8 [WCCt] (@WA) (vJESUIT)
  8. Michigan (27-7) repeat [BIG10t] (@@HORIZ)
  9. Arizona (27-7) repeat;4TH/5 PAC12+2 repeat;3rd/4 [PAC12t] (vVAL-SUN)
  10. North Carolina (25-10) (@@NO-A C/SPORTS) (vBIG10)
  11. Duke (26-7) [v3:PK80A] (@BIG10) (@@CHAMPS)
  12. West Virginia (24-10) [v3:A/ORLANDO] (@BACKYD)
  13. Texas Tech (24-9) [2v2:HOF-C T-O] (@SEC)
  14. Purdue (28-6) (@BIG10) (@@XROADS) (vACC)
  15. Kentucky (24-10) 4-PEAT [vSECt] [rr4vRUPP] (@BIG12) (:C/HOOPS)
  16. Houston (26-7) (:HOFS-B CT)
  17. Wichita State (25-7)
  18. Tennessee (25-8) .5SEC+2 (@BIG12)
  19. Kansas State (22-11) (vSEC)
  20. TCU (21-11) [v3:EMERALD] (:HOFC-A LA) (vDFW)
  21. Nevada (27-7) repeat MWC+2 .2[2v2:LVC-XMAS] (vMVC)
  22. Clemson (23-9) (@BIG10) (@ORANGE) (vSC)
  23. Auburn (25-7) .5SEC+2
  24. Loyola(Illinois) (27-5) MVC+4 [MVCt] .5[2v2:SAVANH]
  25. Rhode Island (25-7) A10+2 (vRI)
Honorable Mention:
Providence (21-13) [2v2:2K], San Diego State [@MWCt] (vMVC), Alabama (19-15) (:VETERANS) (vBIG12), Davidson (21-11) [A10t], BYU (24-10).

Georgia State (22-10) [SUN.Bt],
UNC-Greensboro (24-7) repeat SOCON [vSOCONt],

New Mexico State (25-5) 3rd/4 WAC+2 7TH/9 [WACt] (@HENSON) (@vNM),
Marshall (23-10) [C-USAt],
Buffalo (25-8) MAC+2 3rd/4 [@MACt],
Bucknell (25-9) 4-PEAT;7TH/8 PAT+4 repeat [vPATt] [2@PK80Bcons],
Montana (24-7) SKY+2 [SKYt],
Maryland-Baltimore County (21-10) [@AMER.Et] [2vATLANTIScons],
South Dakota State (24-6) 4TH/6 SUMMIT+2 3-peat [@@SUMMITt],
College of Charleston (24-7) .5COLON+2 [vCOLONt],
Cal State-Fullerton (18-11) [@@BIG.Wt],
Stephen F. Austin (24-6) 4TH/5 [vSLANDt],

Wright State (23-9) [vHORIZt] [rr4vRAIDER],
Iona (20-13) 3-peat [vMAACt] (@@MAAC),
Pennsylvania (23-8) .5IVY+3 [vIVYt],
Long Island (17-16) [@NECt],
Texas Southern (15-19) 4TH/5 [vSWACt],
North Carolina Central (16-15) repeat;3rd/5 [@MEACt].

posted by Ron @ Sunday, October 07, 2018