10 Nov15 - End Of An Era

Volume XV, No. 1.5 - 10 Nov15 : PRESEASON - [] Top 25 Ballot

Hey all,

Sorry for the lateness in getting this out -- the 2010-11 college basketball season officially started last Monday -- but it's been a rough summer personally. I seriously debated whether or not to scrap keeping the website and Hoops Column going this season, but it's too much a part of me for me to abandon it totally. Still, I'm not likely to be able to keep it up-to-date as diligently as I have in past years, and the columns will probably be even less timely than was already the case. But I figure a scaled-down version is better than nothing.

Hope you're all doing well. -- Ron

End Of An Era

Last year, the question was whether The Age of the Golden Child was over now that we'd had four full years of one-and-done freshmen infused back into the talent pool. And, for the second straight year, we had no Final Four participant led by a GC player; and, in fact, the Mid-Major and One-Bid Conference teams had a banner year: a national runner-up (Butler) and three Sweet 16s (Xavier, St. Mary's and Northern Iowa) for the MMs, and a Sweet 16 (Cornell) and two first-round splashes (Ohio University and Murray State) for the 1BCs. Kentucky, with four one-and-done players on its roster (including a non-starter), had an excellent year (Title-and-Tournament champs of the SEC and one win shy of the Final Four) . . . but will you remember them as years go by, or Michigan's "Fab Five" from 1992 (no titles or tourney crowns, but a Final Four run right out of the blocks)?

Despite the End of the GC Era, freshmen are likely to have a disproportionately huge impact this season. But it has more to do with a massive departure of talent from last year than a long-term trend in the sport. From last year's entire Sweet 16, only one team -- Michigan State -- can be said of it that it didn't lose an important lead player from a year ago. (fRaymar Morgan was a solid contributor, but his 11p6r can be easily replaced.)
     You'd think that would be enough to rate them No. 1 in the preseason -- and some have -- but it says here that Duke can handle the loss of pJon Scheyer better than you'd expect thanks to the addition of proven-star transfer gSeth Curry (younger brother of Davidson's great Stephen Curry, and the top-scoring freshman in the nation at Liberty two years ago) and superstar frosh point guard Kyrie Irving. (The U-word is too much to expect when you're replacing the point, but this Blue Devil squad has a great chance to follow Florida 2006-07 and repeat as national champs thanks to the return of last year's Final Four Most Oustanding Player, tKyle Singler.

Two major stars are out, at least at the start of the season. Purdue would have been Top 5 for sure if not for tRobbie Hummel's season-ending ACL injury. Same for Baylor, but bLaceDarius Dunn is "only" suspended indefinitely to start the season due to off-court legal problems over the summer.
     pJimmer Fredette(Brigham Young), cJaJuan Johnson(Purdue), pJacob Pullen(Kansas State), pIsaiah Thomas(Washington) and fElias Harris(Gonzaga) were break-out stars by the end of last season and should be headliners from the start this year.
     Ohio State's bumper crop of freshmen (led by fJared Sullinger) should ease the loss of Player of the Year Evan Turner; gJosh Selby should make an immediate impact at Kansas; Kentucky has replaced its entire lineup with more superfrosh (led by pBrandon Knight); Tennessee expects a lot from fTobias Harris, as does Texas from gCory Joseph; Florida and Illlnois have everybody back from last year, and added tons of new talent on top of that; Syracuse, Missouri, Arizona State, North Carolina (led by fHarrison Barnes) and Memphis added a lot, but they're all replacing big losses from a year ago.

The SEC appears to be beefed up with lots of new talent while the Big East seems to be down compared to previous years. The Big 10, Big 12 and ACC should be fine at the top but a little weaker underneath, and the jury is out on whether the Pac-10's last go-around in this incarnation will be a bang or a bust.
     Butler may get a strong challenge from Detroit in the Horizon; the Atlantic 10 (Dayton, Richmond, Xavier) and Mountain West (Brigham Young, San Diego State, New Mexico) still look good at the top from last season; Murray State(Ohio Valley) appears to be the only 1BC powerhouse capable of repeating last year's success.

The big change for this season is the expansion of the NCAA tournament. Thankfully, they backed away from the ludicrous talk of 96 teams and only moved up to 68. That means the Tuesday before Round One will now be dubbed "The First Four" as four games will start out the Opening Round, featuring two 17-seed 1BC matchups and two Bubble team matchups. (I could've done without it -- in fact, I could have done without the one-off Play-In game we've had the past 10 years -- but I can live with it, I suppose.)

The football-inspired conference changes out West don't go into effect until next year.
     No earth-shattering changes among the coaching ranks, either: Al Skinner(Boston College), Ernie Kent(Oregon), Oliver Purnell(Clemson to DePaul) and Todd Lickliter(Iowa) are out; Steve Donahue(Cornell to Boston College), Dana Altman(Creighton to Oregon) and Fran McCaffrey(Siena to Iowa) moved up; Tim Floyd(UTEP), Steve Lavin(St. John's) and James Dickey(Houston) returned to the sidelines after being out; and former star players Fred Hoiberg(Iowa State) and Jerome Allen(Penn) take the reins at their alma maters while ex-Razorback Corliss Williamson(Central Arkansas) and ex-Tar Heel Jason Capel(Appalachian State) start smaller. (Former Blue Devil great Bobby Hurley will be an assistant to brother Dan Hurley at Wagner).

ESPN's 24-hour College Hoops Kickoff Marathon starts Monday night and runs all day Tuesday.

We're on the road to Houston this year, folks.

-- Ron

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Top 25 - 10 Nov15: PRESEASON - [] Column

1. Duke
2. Michigan State
3. Illinois
4. Ohio State
5. Florida
6. Kansas State
7. Gonzaga
8. Butler
9. Purdue
10. Kansas
11. Syracuse
12. Kentucky
13. Washington
14. Brigham Young
15. Tennessee
16. Missouri
17. Baylor
18. Pittsburgh
19. San Diego State
20. Nevada-Las Vegas
21. Vanderbilt
22. Arizona State
23. Virginia Tech
24. North Carolina
25. Murray State

Worth keeping an eye on:

Georgetown, Memphis, Texas