10 Mar 1 - Stumblin' Down

Volume XIV, No. 17 - 10 Mar 1 - [] Top 25 Ballot

Stumblin' Down

In the last few weeks of the regular season, you'd like for your team to be streaking towards a higher level of form. For the most part, that's not happening. Mostly, teams are Stumblin' Down the stretch, being pulled back to the pack. Instead, three of the Top 4 fell to teams outside of the Top 10, and three more in the Top 11 fell to teams outside of the rankings.
    Tennessee beat Kentucky @74-65 as gJ.P. Prince had 20p and gScotty Hopson had 15p while the Wildcats shot 2-for-22 on three-pointers. UK won't face a hostile crowd like that in the postseason, though -- (the Wildcat Nation travels so faithfully that every "neutral site" feels like a Kentucky home game). UTn has now beaten two certain #1 seeds, having defeated Kansas earlier; yet in the same week the Volunteers lost on the road at Florida, 62-@75. Go figure.
    Oklahoma State shot 60% from the floor (including 10-for-19 on threes) to knock off Kansas @85-77 behind 27p8r from tJames Anderson. Not to worry, though, as the Jayhawks still clinched their sixth straight Big 12 title. KU won't see a frenzied environment like that in the NCAAs (but a neutral crowd could certain root for them to be upset).
    Most troubling is Purdue, which now has to play the rest of the season without tRobbie Hummel (out with a knee injury). The Boilermakers already had a short bench and now they've lost a key player. They fell at home to Michigan State, @44-53, as the Spartans outrebounded them 44-16. PU was headed for the Big 10 title and a #1 seed. Now, they'll likely struggle the rest of the way; wind up overseeded in the NCAAs and suffer a "shocking" early round upset. (Duke will now take their place as a #1 seed for the tournament.)

Syracuse will be the fourth #1 seed, after clinching the Big East regular season title with a @95-77 thrashing of slumping Villanova as six Orange players scored in double-figures while the VU Wildcats struggle to find a consistent #3 scorer after gScottie Reynolds(16p) and gCorey Fisher(14p6a5r).

Xavier outlasted Richmond @78-76(2OT) to tie Temple for first place in the Atlantic 10 with a week to go. Maryland beat Clemson @88-79 and Virginia Tech 104-@100(2OT) (as pGreivis Vasquez had 41p6a7r) to secure second place in the ACC. Mississippi State's cJarvis Varnado broke the NCAA career record for blocked shots [536+] (but the Bulldogs still have work to do, though, to garner an NCAA bid).

Texas lost pDogus Balbay (knee) and is in danger of becoming completely irrelevant in a season that included its first #1 ranking in school history. After beating Oklahoma State early in the week, @69-59, the Longhorns were pounded by Texas A&M, 58-@74.
    Despite having lost cLuke Harangody (knee) for the rest of the season, Notre Dame had its two best wins of the year: @68-53 over Pittsburgh and 78-@64 at Georgetown. Connecticut beat West Virginia @73-62, but fell at home to Louisville @76-78. (ND and UConn meet in a knockout game on Wednesday.)

One of the few teams firing on all cylinders is Butler, which completed an undefeated (18-0) season in the Horizon League to claim its fourth straight regular season title with a SIX GAME GAP to boot. (Second place Wright State has made no impression on the national scene this year; so if you ever wondered what an Anti-Spoiler situation was, this is it. Butler has no business goofing around in the Horizon tournament and letting anyone else get in, forcing the NCAA to waste an at-large bid on themselves.)
    Gonzaga clinched a share of the West Coast title for the TENTH STRAIGHT YEAR. While St. Mary's will also likely get an at-large bid, the Bulldogs have managed to lose twice to conference also-rans. As long as one of those two teams wins the WCC tourney, no problem.

New Mexico benefitted from an ill gJimmer Fredette(6p2a) to complete a season sweep of BYU, 83-@81, and clinch the Mountain West title behind 23p6a from pDairese Gary and 20p14r from xDarington Hobson -- coach Steve Alford's guard-oriented squad is an excellent shooting bunch.
    California whipped Arizona State @62-46 to clinch the Pac-10 regular season title at 12-5. Those teams have cannibalized each other so heavily, though, that only one NCAA bid is forthcoming. So the Bears have much more work to do in order to get an invitation to the NCAAs.
    Cornell won another tight game with Princeton, @50-47, and then paid back its loss to Penn with a @68-48 victory to clinch the Ivy League title and an automatic NCAA berth. (The Tigers played the Big Red tough twice but came up just short. Here's a case where I can see a place for the CBI tournament. Princeton won't make the NIT, but has had a quality year that merits a postseason berth somewhere ... Now is there still a need for CIT on top of that? Nah.)
    Wofford continued its second half surge to take the Southern Conference title, capping it off with a @74-68 win over College of Charleston. Stony Brook knocked off Vermont @82-78 to take the America East title.

On the flip side, Northeastern fell out of first place thanks to a @62-73 home loss to Hofstra, handing the Colonial title to Old Dominion, which beat rival VCU @73-70.
    Jacksonville lost @60-62 at home to East Tennessee State, causing the Atlantic Sun race to end with a four-way tie for first place (along with Belmont, Lipscomb and Campbell; with ETSU one game back in fifth). Instead of securing at least an NIT bid, JU now faces the very real possibility of getting shut out of the postseason with that many co-champs to choose from in such a low-rated league.

Kent State and Akron are tied for first place in the Mid-American with a three-game gap lead. A head-to-head showdown comes Friday for the regular season title (and an NIT bid) and then likely a rematch in the conference tournament final Monday week with an NCAA berth on the line.

It's conference tournament time for most of the 1BC leagues and a couple of MMs. Anti-Spoiler issues for Butler (Horizon) and possibly Gonzaga/St. Mary's (WCC) are the main concern for bubble teams. In the MVC, Northern Iowa is a lock, but a surprise champ would only knock out the loser of the Wichita State/Illinois State semifinal. Siena (MAAC) hasn't done enough to earn an at-large bid, but shouldn't have a problem having won the regular season title with a four-game gap. Only one team is coming out of the Colonial and Old Dominion has more than Northeastern right on its heels. Oakland (Summit), Murray State (OVC) and Coastal Carolina (Big South) have dominated their leagues, but aren't quite first-round splash material.
    The craziness in the Sun Belt wound up as a three-way tie for first place between North Texas, Middle Tennessee and Troy (but with the conference tournament in Hot Springs, Arkansas State might well be the favorite). Weber State and Northern Colorado will likely have a showdown for the Big Sky crown; likewise for Quinnipiac and Robert Morris in the NEC; only home court makes Lehigh a favorite over Bucknell and Lafayette in the Patriot.

-- Ron

Key games this week:

Monday:

@WVirginia-Georgetown, @Texas-Oklahoma, @JacksonSt-ARPineBluff, @PrairieViewA&M-AlabamaSt,

Tuesday:

@OhioSt-Illinois, Vanderbilt-@Florida, @Marquette-Louisville, @Clemson-GeorgiaTech, @Marshall-UTEP,

Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday:

BIG SOUTH TOURNAMENT on-campus, @ #1-seed(Co Carolina/Conway SC), on-campus
- (Tue (1st/Qtrs on-campus): @[1]CoCarolina, @[2]Radford, @[3]Winthrop, @[4]UNCAsheville),

Tuesday, Friday-Saturday:

OVC TOURNAMENT on-campus, @ Nashville TN (Tennessee St)
- (Tue (1st/Qtrs on-campus): @[1]MurraySt, @[2]Morehead St, @[3a]AustinPeay, @[3b]EaIllinois-[3c]EaKentucky),

Tuesday, Friday-Saturday, Tuesday week:

HORIZON TOURNAMENT on-campus, @ #1-seed(Butler/Indianapolis IN), on-campus
- (Tue (1st/16s on-campus): @[3]WIGreenBay, @[4a]WIMilwaukee, @[4b]ClevelandSt, @[4c]Valparaiso;
   Fri (Qtrs @ #1-seed(Butler);
   Sat (Semis @ #1-seed(Butler): @[1]Butler, [2]WrightSt;
   Tue week (Final on-campus),

Wednesday:

@Kansas-KansasSt(KS), Duke-@Maryland, @Tennessee-Arkansas, OklahomaSt-@TexasA&M, Temple-@StLouis, @NotreDame-Connecticut, @FloridaSt-WakeForest, @UAB-Memphis, @RhodeIsland-Charlotte,

Wednesday-Saturday:

A-SUN TOURNAMENT @ Macon GA (Mercer)

- (Wed (1st/Qtrs):

(2:30P):[1a]Lipscomb-[8]@KennesawSt,
(9:00P):[1b]Jacksonville-[7]NFlorida;

   Thu (1st/Qtrs):

(2:30P):[1d]Campbell-[5]ETennesseeSt,
(9:00P):[1c]Belmont-@[6]Mercer;

   Fri (Semis):

(6:30P):[1a]Lipscomb/[8]@KennesawSt-[1d]Campbell/[5]ETennesseeSt,
(9:00P):[1b]Jacksonville/[7]NFlorida-[1c]Belmont/@[6]Mercer;

   Sat (Final):

(6:00P)),

Wednesday, Sunday, Friday week:

PATRIOT TOURNAMENT on-campus
- (Wed (1st/Qtrs): @[1]Lehigh-[8]Army, @[2]Bucknell-[7]HolyCross, @[3]Lafayette),

Thursday:

@Richmond-Dayton, @ArizonaSt-USC, @Nevada-NewMexicoSt,

Thursday-Sunday:

MVC TOURNAMENT @ St. Louis MO
- (Thu (1st/16s): [7]@MissouriSt,
   Fri (Qtrs): [1]NoIowa, [2]WichitaSt-[7]/[10], [3]IllinoisSt, [4]Creighton),

Thursday, Sunday, Wednesday week:

NEC TOURNAMENT on-campus
- (Thu (1st/Qtrs): @[1a]Quinnipiac, @[1b]RobertMorris, @[3]MtStMarys, @[4]LongIsland),

Thursday, Saturday-Sunday, Saturday week:

AMERICA EAST TOURNAMENT @ Hartford CT (Hartford), Finals on-campus
- (Thu (1st/16s @ Hartford CT);
   Sat (2nd/Qtrs @ Hartford CT): [1]StonyBrook, [2]Vermont, [3]Maine-@[6a]Hartford, [4]BostonU),

Friday:

@Akron-KentSt(OH),

Friday-Monday week:

WCC TOURNAMENT @ Las Vegas NV /OHA/
- (Fri (1st/16s);
   Sat (2nd/Qtrs): [3]Portland;
   Sun (3rd/Semis): [1]Gonzaga, [2]StMarys),
MAAC TOURNAMENT at Albany NY (Siena)
- (Fri (1st/16s),
   Sat (Qtrs): @[1]Siena, [2]Fairfield, [3]@Iona, [4]StPeters),
COLONIAL TOURNAMENT @ Richmond VA (VCU)
- (Fri (1st/16s): @[5a]VCU, [5b]Drexel, [7]Hofstra-[9b]GeorgiaSt;
   Sat (Qtrs): [1]@OldDominion, [2]Northeastern-[7]/[9b], [3a]@William&Mary-[5b]/[11], [3b]@GeoMason-@[5a]/[12]),
SOCON TOURNAMENT @ Charlotte NC
- (Fri (1st/16s): @Davidson, TheCitadel;
   Sat (Qtrs): [1S]Wofford, [1N]@AppalachianSt, [2S]ColofCharleston, [2N]@WeCarolina),

Saturday:

Syracuse-@Louisville, Kansas-@Missouri, @Villanova-WVirginia, Tennessee-@MississippiSt, @Baylor-Texas(TX), @Marquette-NotreDame, @SFlorida-Connecticut, @Arkansas-Mississippi, @UTEP-UAB, @Memphis-Tulsa, @Charlotte-Richmond, @Dayton-StLouis, @UtahSt-NewMexicoSt, @Nevada-Louisiana Tech, @{S Dakota}-{HoustonBaptist}, @AlabamaSt-JacksonSt,

Saturday-Tuesday week:

SUN BELT TOURNAMENT @ Hot Springs AR
- (Sat (1st/16s): [4]WeKentucky, [5]@ArkansasSt, [6a]Denver, [6b]LA-Lafayette, [6c]FLAtlantic-[9]SAlabama;
   Sun (Qtrs): [E1a/1a]Troy-[6c]/[9], [W1/1b]NTexas-[6b]/[10], [E1b/1c]MidTennessee-[6a]/[11a]),
SUMMIT TOURNAMENT @ Sioux Falls SD
- (Sat (1st/Qtrs): [1]Oakland, [2]IUPUI;
   Sun (1st/Qtrs): [3]OralRoberts, @[4]SDState),

Saturday, Tuesday week-Wednesday week:

BIG SKY TOURNAMENT on-campus, @ #1-seed(Weber St/Ogden UT)
- (Sat (1st/Qtrs on-campus): @[3a]MontanaSt, @[3b]Montana;
   Tue week (Semis @ #1-seed(Weber St): @[1]WeberSt, [2]NoColorado),

Sunday:

@Kentucky-Florida, Wisconsin-@Illinois,

Sunday, Thursday week-Saturday week:

MAC TOURNAMENT on-campus, @ Cleveland OH
- (Sun (1st/16s on-campus);
   Thu week (2nd/Qtrs @ Cleveland OH): @KentSt, @Akron, Buffalo).

---

Top 25 - 10 Mar 1 - [] Column

1. Syracuse (27-2)
2. Kansas (27-2)
3. Kentucky (27-2)
4. Duke (25-4)
5. Kansas State (23-4)
6. Villanova (23-5)
7. Ohio State (22-7)
8. Michigan State (21-7)
9. Wisconsin (21-7)
10. Purdue (23-4)
11. West Virginia (22-6)
12. Pittsburgh (22-7)
13. Georgetown (19-8)
14. Vanderbilt (21-6)
15. Tennessee (21-7)
16. Gonzaga (23-5)
17. Butler (26-4)
18. New Mexico (27-3)
19. Missouri (21-8)
20. Oklahoma State (20-8)
21. Texas (22-7)
22. Temple (24-5)
23. Xavier (21-7)
24. Baylor (21-6)
25. Brigham Young (25-4)

Honorable Mention:

Notre Dame (19-10), Connecticut (17-12), Maryland (19-7), California (20-9), Cornell (22-4), Mississippi State (21-8), Wofford (22-8), Stony Brook (19-8).