08 Dec29 - Home Trouble (PRECONFERENCE)

Volume XIII, No. 8 - 08 Dec 29: PRECONFERENCE - [] Top 25 Ballot

Home Trouble

Playing at home for the holidays (i.e., without the students in the crowd) was more trouble than it was worth for some elite teams. After losing in OT to powerful Connecticut in Seattle, Gonzaga lost to lowly Portland State @70-77 in its own gym. Ohio State had its bubble burst by visiting West Virginia, @48-76, in front of the home folks. Butler couldn't complete the deal at Ohio State, but they did against Xavier, winning 74-@65. Texas kept its poise and won at Wisconsin, 74-@69.

Illinois drubbed promising Missouri, @75-@59, in the annual BRAGGIN' RIGHTS game in St. Louis. Creighton cruised past a weak field to take the LAS VEGAS-CHRISTMAS crown; ditto for Wright State in the SAN JUAN SHOOTOUT. Middle Tennessee State was an Unwelcome Guest winner of the BTI-MIDWEST (over host Missouri State); Tennessee-Martin has already done the same at the FIU HOLIDAY CLASSIC after going 2-0 in round-robin play (over host Florida International and Fordham). California's home showcase GOLDEN BEAR crown is all the Pac-10 has to show for the preseason; St. Mary's won twice at home to claim the SOS CLASSIC.

Arizona beat Kansas @84-67 in the FIESTA BOWL CLASSIC and Stanford throttled Texas Tech @111-66 to earn a 6-6 split for the PAC-10 in its HARDWOOD SERIES with the BIG 12. Although the ACC (6) and the BIG EAST (5) dominated the preseason tournament landscape, nobody dominated their head-to-head conference showdowns. The ACC eeked out a 6-5 edge over the BIG 10, and the BIG EAST split 2-2 in its official matchups with the SEC.

We haven't seen any freshmen come in and be first-team All-America superstars like we've had the past two years (and among the best players this year, cBlake Griffin/Oklahoma and bJames Harden/Arizona State are two who could've gone one-and-done with last year's crop). The longer three-point line hasn't seemed to make a difference to the pure shooters, but it has made comebacks tougher to pull off by teams with only so-so accuracy. We only had two upsets that came from below the known mid-major powers: VMI's early runaway at Kentucky, and now Portland State's stunner over Gonzaga (oddly, both of them came on the road to boot).

Some few intersectional games remain, but for the most part conference play starts up for everyone this week.
     Out of conference, Tennessee visits Kansas (Saturday), Wake Forest visits BYU (Saturday), Baylor hosts giant-killer Portland State (Monday), Louisville first hosts UNLV (Wednesday) then Kentucky (Sunday), and Butler hosts UAB (Tuesday).
     In conference play, the Big East starts out with The Game of the Year right away as Connecticut hosts Georgetown. They're only scheduled to meet once in the regular season, and with the league as loaded as it is (and with a five-round conference tournament awaiting in the postseason), they may only get to meet this once all year (unless it's at the Final Four). UConn looks mighty impressive but the challenge remains whether they can get out of the way of their own egos (but Georgetown may be too young to pull off the road upset this early in the schedule). On top of that, the Hoyas host Pittsburgh on Saturday (and the schedule doesn't get any easier next week). Marquette does double-duty as well, hosting Villanova on Thursday and (hopefully) having it easier against Cincinnati on Sunday. In the Big Ten, Illinois has two big road games (at Purdue on Tuesday, at Michigan on Sunday) while Minnesota has two big ones at home (vs Michigan State on Wednesday, vs Ohio State on Saturday); Michigan also hosts Wisconsin on Wednesday. In the Pac-10, it's California and Stanford playing host to Arizona and Arizona State on Thursday and Sunday. In the MVC, Illinois State puts its undefeated record to the test twice, hosting Evansville on Wednesday and league-favorite Creighton on Saturday. In the Southern Conference, Davidson has to travel to College of Charleston for the toughest game on its regular season schedule. Villanova hosts Temple in a Big 5 clash on Monday.

Here's how the conferences look after the preseason:

1. BIG EAST - Loaded. Connecticut [PARADISE] has the best center in 7-3 cHasheem Thabeet, two lead guards in pA.J. Price and bJerome Dyson and lots of swagger; Pittsburgh [LEGENDS]'s trio of tSam Young, pLevance Fields and fDeJuan Blair have talent and experience; Georgetown is young but athletic, keyed by freshman cGreg Monroe; Notre Dame's cLuke Harangody is physical by himself, but the team isn't overall -- their fortune lies with the shooting of gKyle McAlarney; West Virginia is still in transition from John Beilein's shooters (pAlex Ruoff) and Bob Huggins' bruisers (freshman fDevin Ebanks); Syracuse [CBE]'s off-court turmoil hasn't bothered its on-court results but pJonny Flynn, gEric Devendorf and fPaul Harris can only take you so far; Villanova [PHILLY] has a balanced attack with fDante Cunningham and gScottie Reynolds but they're soft; Louisville has tons of talent but not yet enough discipline; Marquette's guard trio of bJerel McNeal, pDominic James and bWesley Matthews drive better than they shoot; Cincinnati can only go where pDeonta Vaughn takes them; Providence has a complete team, a new coach, and no heart. It's going to be a long season for the likes of St. John's, Rutgers, Seton Hall, DePaul and especially South Florida with so many talented teams ahead of them.
2. ACC - Surprisingly effective but still young for the most part. North Carolina [MAUI] remains on track for the pursuit of an undefeated national championship season, led by record-setting cTyler Hansbrough, pTy Lawson, gWayne Ellington and tDanny Green; Duke [CVC] seems to be more athletic this year as gJon Scheyer's shooting and tKyle Singler's all-around play have keyed some lopsided wins over ranked opponents; Wake Forest [ANAHEIM] has scary athletic talent but is bJeff Teague poised enough to direct the team to victory when things get tight? Clemson [CHARLESTON] has gotten off to its annual stellar preseason start -- they've been finishing stronger each year under Oliver Purnell but they're even more no-name than they were last year; Maryland shocked its way to some preseason upsets that have kept it ranked but the team is little more than pGreivis Vasquez and filler; Miami(Florida) has floated under the radar with some key losses but gJack McClinton is a big-time player; Florida State [GS] has young talent but bToney Douglas is the whole show; Boston College (pTyrese Rice), N.C. State (fBrandon Costner) and Virginia Tech (bJ.D. Vassallo) are one-hit wonders.
3. BIG 10 - Some surprising results have teams ranked for the preseason that probably won't be there after conference play. Purdue's fRobbie Hummel exemplies the lunchpail overachieving grinders that they all are; Illinois [SOUTH PADRE] is another no-name bunch; Minnesota's big win (over Louisville) and undefeated record have them riding higher than they rightfully belong; Michigan State's cGoran Suton's presence doesn't exactly make them physical but his absence sure makes them soft; Michigan's bManny Harris always delivers, fDeShawn Sims doesn't; Wisconsin has gTrevon Hughes and that's about it, but Bo Ryan's station-to-station style is always good for the long haul of conference play.
4. BIG 12 - A solid preseason. Oklahoma [NIT TIP-OFF] handled a brutal schedule undefeated with Player of the Year frontrunner cBlake Griffin; Missouri has its intensity back behind coach Mike Anderson; Texas's has quickness on the perimeter but lacks size and muscle in the paint; Baylor's bCurtis Jerrells shoots them in and out of contention; Texas A&M still has remnants from the Billy Gillispie era; Kansas is too young (and not so talented) to contend over the long haul; Oklahoma State overachieved in the preseason but conference play is another story.
5. SEC - The Emperor has no clothes. LSU hopes new coach Trent Johnson can put some discipline into a talented roster; Tennessee's style make it competitive in every game, but in the halfcourt set: who runs the show? Florida's youngsters are a year older and wiser but they need more than pNick Calathes to be contenders; Kentucky [LAS VEGAS-THANX]'s tandem of fPatrick Patterson and gJodie Meeks are putting up stellar numbers but do they have enough support? Vanderbilt [CANCUN] is even softer this year than last year (when softness was a problem).
6. PAC-10 - A changing of the guard is in the offing. UCLA's much ballyhooed recruiting class isn't the instant smash they expected to be (but be patient); Stanford is overachieving behind new coach Johnny Dawkins; ditto for California behind coach Mike Montgomery; Arizona State has a first-team All-America in bJames Harden (but does that make the team great?); Washington seems to be getting better results with less emphasis on cJon Brockman; USC doesn't look any better than last year's disappointing squad; Arizona's roller-coaster sideline drama leaves the team a mystery with great potential up and down.
7. ATLANTIC 10 - Surprise preseason tournament crowns led to unexpected rankings. Dayton [CHICAGO] is all about a healthy fChris Wright; Xavier [PUERTO RICO]'s leftovers have a winning attitude that surpasses their talent; Rhode Island's gJimmy Baron is a great shooter for his dad, coach Jim Baron; Temple has a first-rate star in bDionte Christmas (but the team isn't much otherwise); St. Joseph's roster looks better on paper than they perform on court.
8. CONFERENCE USA - Memphis isn't a national power this year, but still dominates the conference; UTEP is a spoiler only; UAB has individual talent but that doesn't a team make; Tulsa's buzz from winning CBI last year still only makes them a Top-100 squad.
9. HORIZON - An essentially entirely new lineup at Butler has performed admirably; Cleveland State pulled off a shocking upset at Syracuse but may struggle to make the postseason; Illinois-Chicago will be a factor inside the conference, as will Wisconsin-Green Bay and Wright State [SAN JUAN].
10. WEST COAST - Gonzaga [OS]'s deeper, more athletic roster still would rather play finess offense than gritty defense; St. Mary's had an upset loss that took it out of the headlines but the ship is still pretty stable; San Diego started poorly and then was hit by injury; Portland made a little noise as well.
11. MISSOURI VALLEY - Illinois State stayed undefeated against weak competition; Creighton [LAS VEGAS-XMAS] was solid; Evansville and Drake were, too.
12. MOUNTAIN WEST - BYU can still pull off an upset behind tLee Cummard and bJonathan Tavernari; UNLV flopped in their host tournament but was solid otherwise; San Diego State [GREAT ALASKA]'s veteran squad is solid; Utah [GLENN WILKES]'s experience is also excellent.
13. SOUTHERN - Davidson's gStephen Curry is up for Player of the Year and the team is riding a long conference win streak; College of Charleston's Bobby Cremins may be the only team good enough to challege the Wildcats; Wofford made preseason noise.
14. WAC - Utah State posted a great record, as did Boise State and Hawaii but there were no signature wins; Nevada is much too young.
15. SUN BELT - Western Kentucky had one huge surprise win (over Louisville); Arkansas-Little Rock made noise; Arkansas State and North Texas posted empty Ws; Middle Tennessee State struggled.
16. COLONIAL - George Mason, James Madison, Hofstra and Old Dominion posted records that look better than they are; Virginia Commonwealth is only as good as one man (pEric Maynor); Northeastern has more poise than talent.
17. METRO ATLANTIC - Niagara and Fairfield quietly had a solid preseasons; veteran Siena lived by the 3 last year but can't handle the new distance this year.
18. SOUTHLAND - Stephen F Austin and Lamar swapped divisions but it's still about those two (and maybe Northwestern State).
19. BIG SOUTH - VMI's run-and-shoot style captured a BCS scalp (Kentucky) in the preseason; Liberty will go as far as freshman gSeth Curry (Stephen's little brother) will take them.
20. PATRIOT - Lehigh and Navy posted good records but made no noise; American struggled; Holy Cross was generally a bust but had the best win.
21. AMERICA EAST - Vermont and Albany posted wins; Maryland(Baltimore County) made noise, as did lowly Maine.
22. BIG SKY - Portland State posted the biggest "David over Goliath" win of the preseason (at Gonzaga).
23. BIG WEST - UC-Riverside and Pacific's wins only look good on paper; Cal State-Fullerton has a star guard (gJosh Akognon) but not much else.
24. OHIO VALLEY - Jacksonville State, Tennessee-Martin (with bLester Hudson) and Murray State posted mid-major wins.
25. ATLANTIC SUN - East Tennessee State was solid; Mercer made BCS noise; Belmont was OK; Jacksonville wasn't.
26. SUMMIT - IUPUI, Oakland and North Dakota State (with 60p-man bBen Woodside) all had showy losses.
27. NORTHEAST - Wagner made no impression; Mount St. Mary's disappointed.
28. MID-AMERICAN - This "mid-major" performed sub-par to most 1BC leagues. Miami(Ohio) has support players who remember what it's like to matter; Kent State has been a disaster under its new coach.
29. MEAC - Hampton was respectably bad; Morgan State wasn't even that.
30. IVY - Cornell dealt with injuries in the preseason; only Harvard figures to challenge them.
31. INDEPENDENTS - {Utah Valley}, Savannah State, Chicago State and Longwood have managed to find some wins somehwere out there; reclassification has meant no wins for {New Jersey Tech}, {Houston Baptist} and {North Carolina Central}.
32. SWAC - No one is even close to .500 here. Alabama State's veterans are the "favorites". You can't blame reclassification for the lack of wins at Southern, Texas Southern and Mississippi Valley.

-- Ron

Key games this week:

Monday:

@Connecticut-Georgetown(@HartfordCT), @Baylor-PortlandSt, @Villanova-Temple(PhiladelphiaPA)(BIG 5), @Memphis-Cincinnati, @ColofCharleston-Davidson, @OklahomaSt-Arkansas, @BostonCol-SanFrancisco,
FIU HOLIDAY CLASSIC RndRob2/2 @ Miami,FL
- (1st:MidTennessee; 2nd:@FLInternational-Fordham),

Monday-Tuesday:

RAINBOW CLASSIC Semis @ Honolulu,HI
- (Semis: Vermont-ColoradoSt, Colorado-Buffalo;
    Cons: @Hawaii-GeoWashington, Pepperdine-CoppinSt),
UCF HOLIDAY CLASSIC 1st/Semis @ Orlando,FL
- (@CFlorida-Penn, ChicagoSt-Campbell),

Tuesday:

Oklahoma-@Arkansas, @Purdue-Illinois, @Butler-UAB, @Dayton-GeoMason, @WrightSt-ClevelandSt(OH), @Tulsa-BYU,

Wednesday:

Gonzaga-@Utah, @Michigan-Wisconsin, MichiganSt-@Minnesota, @Louisville-UNLV, @Memphis-Northeastern, @NTexas-MidTennessee, @IllinoisSt-Evansville, @Cornell-Quinnipiac,

Thursday (NEW YEAR'S):

Villanova-@Marquette,

Friday:

Baylor-@SCarolina, @California-Arizona, @Stanford-ArizonaSt, @Navy-Wofford, @Oakland-NDState,

Saturday:

Pittsburgh-@Georgetown, Tennessee-@Kansas, OhioSt-@Minnesota, WakeForest-@BYU, @Clemson-ECarolina, Creighton-@IllinoisSt, @Florida-NCState, @Massachusetts-Vanderbilt, @WIGreenBay-ILChicago, @Utah-Wyoming, @SanJoseSt-LouisianaTech, @Delaware-VCU, @AustinPeay-MoreheadSt, @Belmont-Stetson, @Campbell-Mercer, @Hampton-KentSt,

Sunday:

@NCarolina-BostonCol, @Duke-VirginiaTech, @Michigan-Illinois, @Louisville-Kentucky(KY), @Marquette-Cincinnati, @California-ArizonaSt, @Stanford-Arizona.

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Top 25 - 08 Dec 29: PRECONFERENCE - [] Column

1. North Carolina (11-0) [3:MAUI]
2. Connecticut (10-0) [3:PARADISE]
3. Duke (9-1) [2v2:CVC]
4. Oklahoma (12-0) [2v2:NIT TIP-OFF]
5. Pittsburgh (11-0) [2v2:LEGENDS]
6. Gonzaga (7-3) [3:OS]
7. Tennessee (8-2)
8. Georgetown (9-1)
9. West Virginia (10-2)
10. Ohio State (9-1)
11. Maryland (8-2)
12. Michigan (7-2)
13. Michigan State (9-2)
14. Notre Dame (7-2)
15. Texas (10-2)
16. Syracuse (11-1) [2v2@CBE]
17. Purdue (11-2)
18. Wake Forest (9-0) [3:ANAHEIM]
19. Baylor (9-1)
20. UCLA (10-2)
21. Minnesota (11-0)
22. Clemson (10-0) [3vCHARLESTON]
23. Villanova (10-1) [2v2vPHILLY]
24. Illinois (12-1) [2v2:S PADRE]
25. Creighton (11-2) [2v2:LVC-XMAS]

Honorable Mention:

Xavier (9-2) [3:PUERTO RICO],
Dayton (11-1) [2v2:CHICAGO],
Vanderbilt (8-3) [2v2:CANCUN],
Florida State (12-2) [2v2@GS],
Kentucky (10-3) [2v2:LVI-THNX],
Virginia Tech (8-4) [2@HOLIDAY-NYC],
St. Bonaventure (7-4) [RR4@GARDEN],
Utah (7-4) [RRv3:G.WILKES],
Wright State (6-7) [3:SAN JUAN],
Stephen F Austin (4-3) [2@DRAKE HV],
San Diego State (9-3) [3:GREAT AK],
Wofford (4-4) [2@USAF],
Middle Tennessee State (4-5) [2@BTI-M].