08 Nov10 - Unfinished Business (PRESEASON)

Volume XIII, No. 1 - 08 Nov10: PRESEASON - [] Top 25 Ballot

Unfinished Business

Last season, continuity at the top of college basketball was maintained. The four #1-seeds which all advanced to the Final Four consisted of one repeat appearance (UCLA) and three Elite Eight teams from 2007 who advanced another step (Kansas, Memphis and North Carolina). This season might finish with a similar conclusion, but it may well provide some breakthroughs that aren't apparent at the start. Many of last year's star players have departed, but the headline is definitely who came back. fTyler Hansbrough, the 2008 Player of the Year, returned for his senior season at UNC; and gStephen Curry, the star of stars in the 2008 NCAA tournament who led Davidson to its finest season ever, is back as well. From a marketability standpoint, that wasn't the right decision for either player. fHansbrough may set some career marks; but, unless he wins the national championship and repeats as POY, he can hardly have a higher profile coming off of this season as he would have had he turned pro. gCurry (who not only must shift from shooting guard to point guard [after the graduation of NCAA assist leader pJason Richards], but also must contend with the deeper three-point line [moved back from 19'9" to 20'9"]) can't possibly top the heat he generated with last year's performance. But the NBA's loss is college hoops' gain.

It wasn't just fHansbrough, by the way. Everybody came back at North Carolina. The core of fHansbrough, gWayne Ellington, pTy Lawson and tDanny Green made the Final Four last year on top of their second straight double in the ACC (regular season title and conference tournament crown). It can be tough to maintain chemistry all season long for a team in their position. They'll be motivated at the start by the possibility of going undefeated; but once they lose their first game, they can only duplicate what they've already done until they get to the final weekend of the season to achieve their Unfinished Business.
     Intact cores from last year at Louisville, Connecticut and Oklahoma have some solid new help arriving. Standing pat with successful rosters: Villanova, Siena, Miami(Florida), Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Purdue, Marquette, Gonzaga, St. Mary's and San Diego. (Can Siena's perimeter game achieve the same success with the new, deeper three-point line?) Retooled with new stars: UCLA, Tennessee, Memphis, Michigan State, Georgetown and Kansas. (Can UCLA make a fourth straight Final Four led by a different star?) Still holding on with less: Texas, Davidson, UNLV, Syracuse and Florida. (Can Texas be as successful the Year After pD.J. Augustin as they were the Year After tKevin Durant?)

The Golden Child one-and-done freshmen last year were plenty entertaining to watch, but their postseason impact was mixed at best. (Sure, pDerrick Rose was a leader on last year's national runner-up, Memphis -- but he was an addition to an intact squad that had made Elite Eight the previous year. cKevin Love replaced departed star bArron Afflalo to lead the same supporting cast at UCLA back to its third straight Final Four. fMichael Beasley led Kansas State past gO.J. Mayo and USC in the first round, but that was all she wrote. Things fell apart around bEric Gordon at Indiana, which slinked out of postseason play early. tDonte Green couldn't lead Syracuse past injury problems.) They're all gone; tKyle Singler(Duke), pJonny Flynn(Syracuse), bJames Harden(Arizona State), fPatrick Patterson(Kentucky), and cA.J. Ogilvy(Vanderbilt) stayed.
     A new crop of GC players is here. 6-8 fSamardo Samuels is walking into the best situation with an intact nucleus at Louisville (pending the health of tTerrence Williams' knee) back from last year's Elite Eight squad. 6-7 tScotty Hopson joins enough returning talent at Tennessee to keep them among the national contenders. 6-6 gTyreke Evans will help what's left at Memphis stay in the conversation. UCLA lost a lot of talent, but there's a tremendous class coming in, led by 6-3 gJrue Holiday. One sideshow is gone at USC, but in comes another -- not 6-6 fDemar DeRozan -- chart-topping rapper "(Lil') Romeo" 5-11 pPercy Miller. 7-0 cB.J. Mullens figures to be the third straight one-and-done center at Ohio State, but there's not much returning talent to support him.

The Mid-Majors were still able to be quite successful in the postseason last year. Davidson led the way with its thrilling run to the Elite Eight; Western Kentucky's Sweet 16 finish came at the expense of MM Drake and thanks to UConn's pA.J. Price's injury keying MM San Diego's first-round upset. Butler's two-year joy ride (NIT TIP-OFF crown and Sweet 16 in '07) ended with a first-round splash in '08. Siena's breakthrough win over Vanderbilt could have a second act this year that's just as good. The standard-bearers from the MVC(Drake), Colonial(George Mason), MAC(Kent State) and Big South(Winthrop) weren't able to win a tournament game last year (and it appears to be a down year in all of those leagues this time around). The new, deeper three-point line will make it tougher for smaller Mid-Major teams to pull off upsets just on the strength of perimeter shooting.

Off-season coaching changes were highlighted by Tom Crean's departure from Marquette to take over from scratch at Indiana (following the debacle of Kelvin Sampson's late-season resignation last year); former assistant Buzz Williams still has plenty to work with, though, as four starters return at MU. Lute Olson returned to Arizona, dismissing associate head coach Kevin O'Neill, then wound up retiring altogether; assistant Mike Dunlap declined the offer to be interim head coach, leaving third-choice Russ Pennell to preside over a program in disarray. Darrin Horn parlayed Western Kentucky's postseason success into taking over at South Carolina (following the retirement of Dave Odom). After his successful debut at Drake, Keno Davis traded up to take over at Providence (with five returning underachieving starters). Trent Johnson left Stanford to take over a talented roster at LSU from John Brady (now at Arkansas State); former Duke star Johnny Dawkins takes Johnson's place at The Farm. Former Stanford coach Mike Montgomery is back in the college ranks, taking over at California for departed Ben Braun (now at Rice). Travis Ford left Massachusetts to take over at Oklahoma State for the ousted Sean Sutton; former UMass star Derek Kellogg is the new coach at his alma mater. Former Purdue star Cuonzo Martin is the new coach at Missouri State. Veteran coach Ray McCallum takes over at Detroit (after the retirement of Perry Watson). Mike Jarvis is back on the sidelines, now at Florida Atlantic; former Kansas star Rex Walters leaves FAU to take the reins at San Francisco (following the re-retirement of Eddie Sutton). Pat Knight begins his first full season at Texas Tech (after taking over for his father Bob Knight for the final few games of last year). Geno Ford is the new coach at Kent State (after Jim Christian left for TCU). First Brother-In-Law Craig Robinson (Princeton '83) left Brown to take over as head coach at Oregon State.

The mega-Big East figures to dominate the conference conversation for the balance of the season. At least nine teams (Louisville, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Villanova, Georgetown, Marquette, Syracuse and Providence) have Sweet 16-calibre talent. This year, all 16 teams qualify for the conference tournament; but with the bye structure that's been set up, if you're out of the top 8, you'll have to win five consecutive games to win the crown. In the ACC, only North Carolina is a proven national championship contender, but Duke's roster is solid and Miami(Florida) has Sweet 16 potential; the path is open for Wake Forest to ride its talent a long way. In the Pac-10, UCLA is essentially completely revamped but with pDarren Collison at the helm, it should be easier to incorporate so much new incoming talent; Arizona State (much like Wake Forest) must jump from pretender to contender with full belief in its considerable abililties; USC must get out of its own way and just play solid basketball without all of the celebrity-driven distractions; Arizona just wants the focus off the sidelines. In the SEC, Tennessee and Florida figure to continue their recent dominance; Kentucky hopes to resurge back to its expected heights; LSU has an open opportunity to emerge as a conference power. The Big 12 is headed by Oklahoma and Texas, with a new crop of Replacment Players at Kansas with little expectation on them to produce immediately. The Big 10 figures to be a two-team race between Michigan State (in the Year After gDrew Neitzel) and the overachieving grinders at Purdue, with Ohio State perhaps too young to contend.
     The WCC should maintain its elevated status from last year's surprise 3-team berth in NCAAs -- Gonzaga, St. Mary's and San Diego all figure to be equally solid this year. Memphis is still the standard-bearer of Conference USA, but UAB and Tulsa (last year's winner of the inauguaral College Basketball Invitational postseason tournament) look to join the Big Dance this time around.

The preseason may not have the full lustre that we could have hoped for. Key injuries for the top three teams means none of them will be at full strength until December at the earliest. fTyler Hansbrough(UNC) has a "stress reaction in his leg"; tTerrence Williams(Lville) is recovering from preseason knee surgery; and pA.J. Price(UConn) is coming back from off-season knee surgery.

ESPN's 24-hour COLLEGE HOOPS TIP-OFF MARATHON is still one week away. (It begins 12:01AM next Tuesday 18 Nov with Memphis hosting Massachusetts [coach John Calipari's former school] and is headlined by the 9PM Tuesday matchup of North Carolina hosting Kentucky.)
     This week is mostly opening round warmup games for preseason tournaments: COACHES VS CANCER (UCLA, Duke, Michigan, Southern Illinois), PUERTO RICO (Memphis, USC, Xavier, Virginia Tech), PHILLY (Villanova, Rhode Island), CBE (Syracuse, Florida, Kansas, Washington, Cleveland State), LAS VEGAS-THANKSGIVING (Kentucky, West Virginia), SOUTH PADRE (Kent State, Tulsa, Texas A&M), the new CANCUN CHALLENGE (VCU, Vanderbilt, Drake) and GLENN WILKES (Mississippi, Utah, Morgan State).
     The new CHARLESTON CLASSIC (Temple [featuring bDionte Christmas], Clemson, Western Michigan, at College of Charleston) runs Friday through Sunday.

Commentator Billy Packer will no longer be working the NCAA Tournament for CBS. He called many of the most memorable games in the postseason -- (that's him saying, "They won it ... on the dunk!" when fLorenzo Charles' putback for N.C. State beat Houston for the 1983 title) -- and was part of the "revolutionary" three-announcer team of himself, Al McGuire and Dick Enberg whose conversations were more entertaining than many of the games they were showing. (He also had his detractors, though, as some comments he made offended women, blacks and gays over the years.) For my part, he'll be greatly missed. As time moves on, there are fewer and fewer people who can put things in a historical context that goes back more than even 20 years nowadays.
     The ACC TOURNAMENT is in Atlanta this year (while the SEC TOURNAMENT moves to Tampa); but we're all on the road to the Final Four in Detroit.

-- Ron

Key games this week:

Monday-Thursday, Thursday week-Friday week:

COACHES VS CANCER CLASSIC 1st/16s on-campus, Semis @ New York,NY /MSG/
- (Mon-Tue @ Durham, NC: @Duke-{Presbyterian}, Houston-GeorgiaSo,
   Tue-Wed @ Ann Arbor,MI: @Michigan-{MichiganTech}, Northeastern-IUPUI,
   Tue-Wed @ Carbondale,IL: @SoIllinois-{CaliforniaPA}, Massachusetts-{ARMonticello},
   Wed-Thu @ Los Angeles,CA: @UCLA-PrairieViewA&M, MiamiOH-WeberSt),

Friday:

@Oklahoma-American, @VirginiaTech-GardnerWebb,

Friday-Sunday:

CHARLESTON CLASSIC 1st/Qtrs @ Charleston,SC
- (Temple-ETennesseeSt, @Clemson-Hofstra, WeMichigan-TCU, @ColofCharleston-{SIUEdwardsville}),

Friday,Sunday; Tuesday week,Thursday week; Monday-Wednesday 24-26 Nov:

CBE CLASSIC Warmup on-campus; 3rd/Cons RndRob @ MiamiFL, Ft.MyersFL; 3rd/Semis @ Kansas City,MO
- (A: @Syracuse, @Florida;
   A Cons: ClevelandSt, Toledo, @FLInternational, {WGeorgia}, {LeMoyne}, {StLeo};
   B: @Kansas, @Washington;
   B Cons: Richmond, Bradley, MOKansasCity, @{FLGulfCoast}),

Saturday,Monday week; Thursday week-Sunday week:

PUERTO RICO TIP-OFF Warmup on-campus; 2nd/Qtrs @ San Juan,PR
- (Sat: @Memphis-Fairfield,
   Mon week: @Missouri-Chattanooga,
   Thu week: Memphis-Chattanooga(TN), USC-SetonHall, Xavier-Missouri, VirginiaTech-Fairfield),

Sunday-Tuesday 25 Nov; Friday-Saturday 28-29 Nov:

PHILLY CLASSIC RndRob on-campus; Semis @ Philadelphia,PA /Palestra/
- (A: @Villanova, Towson, Niagara, Monmouth;
   B: @PennSt, RhodeIsland, Hartford, {NJIT}),
LAS VEGAS-THANKSGIVING INVITATIONAL RndRob on-campus; Semis @ Las Vegas,NV /OHA/
- (A: @Kentucky, @KansasSt, SEMissouriSt, Longwood;
   B: @WVirginia, @Iowa, Oakland, DelawareSt),
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND INVITATIONAL RndRob on-campus; Semis @ South Padre Island,TX
- (A: @Illinois, @KentSt, TexasA&MCC, JacksonvilleSt;
   B: @TexasA&M, @Tulsa, UNCWilmington, {NCCentral}),

Sunday,Tuesday week; Friday week-Sunday week; Saturday 29 Nov:

GLENN WILKES CLASSIC RndRob on-campus; RndRob @ Daytona Beach,FL; RndRob on-campus
- (Mississippi, Utah, Marshall, WIGreenBay, MorganSt),

Sunday-Wednesday 27 Nov; Saturday-Sunday 29-30 Nov:

CANCUN CHALLENGE RndRob on-campus; Semis @ Cancun,MEXICO
- (A: @Vanderbilt, @Drake, CFlorida, MoreheadSt, {CArkansas};
   B: @NewMexico, @VCU, SanDiegoSt, Grambling, TheCitadel).

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Top 25 - 08 Nov10: PRESEASON - [] Column

1. North Carolina
2. Louisville
3. Connecticut
4. UCLA
5. Oklahoma
6. Duke
7. Tennessee
8. Memphis
9. Texas
10. Michigan State
11. Pittsburgh
12. Villanova
13. Notre Dame
14. Purdue
15. Georgetown
16. Marquette
17. Gonzaga
18. St. Mary's
19. Davidson
20. UNLV
21. Siena
22. Miami(Florida)
23. Syracuse
24. Florida
25. San Diego

Worth keeping an eye on:

Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Cornell, Kansas, Kentucky, LSU, North Dakota State, Ohio State, Providence, USC, Vermont, Wake Forest.