Hoop, Line And Sinker

A weekly column on men's college basketball.

Sunday, December 01, 2019

19 Nov 4 - Cold Pizza (PRESEASON)

Volume XXIV, No. 1 - 19 Nov 4: PRESEASON - [] Top 25 Ballot

Cold Pizza

Last year's NCAA Tournament culminated in the Sweet Redemption win of the National Championship for the Virginia Cavaliers and coach Tony Bennett just one year after they suffered The Worst Upset Loss In Tournament History (when they became the first No.1 seed to lose to a No.16 [Maryland-Baltimore County]). Veteran coach Bruce Pearl earned the first Final Four appearance in Auburn history while the meteoric rise of young coach Chris Beard followed up 2018's Elite 8 finish with the first National Runner-Up ending for Texas Tech. (Ho hum, coach Tom Izzo reached his EIGHTH FINAL FOUR for Michigan State.) Meanwhile, perennial powers Kentucky and Kansas both were shut out of any major hardware - - (no conference regular season title, no conference tournament crown, no Final Four). While no 1BC (One-Bid Conference) team was able to survive into the second weekend, a very healthy five teams posted first-round Splash wins as Buffalo elevated the MID-AMERICAN to a B-Major-level rating and unbeaten Wofford lifted the SOUTHERN CONFERENCE to Mid-Major status. (Sadly but predictably, both coaches jumped ship to B-Major jobs in the off-season.) The erstwhile 1BC OHIO VALLEY had a breakthrough tourney garnering two bids and two wins (as Murray State/pJa Morant made a 32-Splash while Belmont/xDylan Windler were an NCAA-44 Play-In Winner). Liberty was the ultimate Carpetbagger, switching conferences and claiming the (co-)title/TiTo crown in the ATLANTIC SUN and earning a 32-Splash NCAA win to boot. CONFERENCE USA's streak of four-straight 32-Splash finishes ended (but CIT Champ Marshall did manage to capture the league's third postseason also-ran tourney crown in four years).
     In conference, Kansas/Bill Self's record-setting consecutive streak of fourteen (BIG 12) conference titles came to an end (hurt by a key injury). Penn ended Villanova's 5-year/25-game win streak inside the BIG 5 and claimed the Philadelphia City Series outright(undefeated). Meanwhile, Gonzaga/Mark Few continued their domination of the WEST COAST, claiming their EIGHTEENTH REGULAR SEASON TITLE IN NINETEEN YEARS while Villanova/Jay Wright made it 4 or 5 BIG EAST titles (in a down year, no less) with 1BC dynasties in the making for New Mexico State (4 of 5 WAC titles), UC-Irvine/Russell Turner (3 of 4 in the BIG WEST) and Vermont/John Becker (3-straight in AMERICA EAST) all favorites to keep it rolling.
     A once-in-a-generation talent (Duke's fZion Williamson) was thrilling to watch, but ultimately underachieved when compared to the standards of the all-time greatest freshmen performers - - when all was said and done, all there was on his resume was an ACC tournament crown. That's a far cry from the Elite one-and-done CVs of tCarmelo Anthony(2003 Syracuse: BIG EAST conference [co-]title/NO tourney crown, NCAA Championship, Most Outstanding Player) and cAnthony Davis(2012 Kentucky: SEC title[undefeated]/NO tourney, NCAA, MOP) but even those two failed to go TiTo in conference. Although it was before the current Golden Child Era, the ultimate Freshman season belongs to cPervis Ellison(1986 Louisville: METRO title/tourney, NCAA, MOP). No one else has run the table completely as a freshman other than "Never Nervous" Pervis. Even gMichael Jordan was only (1982 North Carolina: ACC title/tourney, NCAA, NOT MOP despite hitting that game-winning jumper) as a freshman.

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Although it's a year away, the NCAA has been forced to move forward on the issue of player compensation. The State of California passed a law allowing its college athletes to remain eligible while profitting monetarily from the sale of their Name, Image and Likeness (NIL). The NCAA has followed suit, to be implemented next year. To be sure, that's a big step forward for the Elite-level stars: it removes the under-the-table stigma for payments traditionally from school-connected boosters and company-connected middlemen (like those wrapped up in the bribery/fraud Shoe Company Scandal). But what this doesn't address are the role players who use up their eligibility and don't even have a college degree to show for it. Maybe they don't deserve millions, but they sure as hell deserve tens of thousands at least for their part contributing to this multi-billion dollar industry. Those guys have no way to infuse value into their individual NILs - - hell, there are still schools (e.g., Indiana) that don't even allow your name on the back of your jersey (in the name of "team first" but at the absolute detriment to your ability to earn the individual admiration, respect and fandom that could actually instill value into your individual NIL). It's the no-names who deserve a significant stipend; the superstars will always get theirs one way or another. Maybe we'll go back to the days of the movie ONE ON ONE (loosely based on UCLA/John Wooden) with athletes getting paid for a "job" (watering the field [using the automatic sprinkler system]). Maybe the Money People will find a way to pay NIL compensation on a group basis so that the no-names will get their share. It will seem ugly on the surface, but what's actually ugly is the uncompensated labor that creates the value in this multi-billion-dollar industry.

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In a largely stable off-season, no teams changed conferences (although Long Island did change its nickname from "Blackbirds" to "Sharks"). Savannah State left the MEAC to return to Division-II. Meanwhile, the {Merrimack} Warriors have joined the NORTHEAST and will start the four-year process to full eligibility for Division-I.
     Some veteran coaches have left the college scene: Phil Martelli(St. Joseph's), Fran Dunphy(Temple et al.), Ernie Kent(Washington State et al.), Dave Rose(BYU) and Bill Carmody(Holy Cross et al.) are done while John Beilein left Michigan to coach the NBA/Cleveland Cavaliers. Moving up: Mick Cronin left Cincinnati for UCLA (while ousted Steve Alford landed at Nevada after Eric Musselman moved on to Arkansas). Nate Oats left Buffalo for Alabama while Mike Young left Wofford for Virginia Tech (after Buzz Williams moved on to Texas A&M). Ron Hunter left Georgia State to try and resurrect Tulane. Former star players trying their hand at coaching include Juwan Howard at Michigan, Aaron McKie at Temple and Jerry Stackhouse at Vanderbilt. Meanwhile, Fred Hoiberg is back from the NBA to coach at Nebraska.

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In a one-year sample, the NCAA's new NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) proved to be a better rating mechanism than the previous RPI (Ratings Percentage Index) had been over many years. The Selection Committee didn't do appreciably better at seeding the teams in the draw as compared to years past. (In the Hoops Contest, picks based on the NET ratings fared comparably well to other prominent team rating systems while picks based on the NCAA Seeds fared poorer in typical fashion.)
     Last year, the BIG 10's move from 18 conference games to 20 paid off with 8 NCAA bids (its highest-ever total [and way up from 4 bids in 2018). This year, the ACC will follow suit (and do it one "better" with some conference games coming as early as November). The WEST COAST's move down from 18 to 16 games was inconclusive - - (St. Mary's made it in as a second team when unbeaten Gonzaga failed to Anti-Spoil in the tourney final.) CONFERENCE USA's move to wait until February before scheduling the final four games of its regular season didn't earn it an at-large bid beyond TiTo champ Old Dominion.
     The MOUNTAIN WEST/MISSOURI VALLEY CONFERENCE CHALLENGE has been discontinued - - (the MWC led 3-1;4 all-time). Meanwhile, the BIG EAST and BIG 12 have started a new head-to-head CHALLENGE (with all 10 teams participating) while have the SEC and AMERICAN have taken baby steps with a 4-game mini-CHALLENGE. Lower down the ranks, the ATLANTIC SUN and METRO ATLANTIC have started a two-team/two-day double-header.

- - - - - -

There is a considerable turnover of talent from last year - - (all that's left in the fridge is Cold Pizza.) Only Liberty is essentially intact from last year's top 32 finishers. Among the entire Sweet 16, only Final 4/Michigan State has its star player returning, pCassius Winston. Marquette's gMarkus Howard also (inexplicably) stayed in college and could have expected his team to be top contenders (if only the Hauser brothers hadn't decided to transfer). Individually, those two are the top holdovers and leading preseason candidates for Player Of The Year.
     The "Balance Of Power" has shifted somewhat in terms of where the top Golden Child players landed this year. The PACIFIC-12 is loaded, with Washington, Arizona and USC each scoring two GC signings. The SEC led the way overall with 7 GC stars (but well distributed as only Kentucky managed two). Duke (4) and North Carolina (2) were the only ACC schools to sign any GCs; the BIG 10 (3 singletons) as well as the BIG EAST and BIG 12 (only one GC player each) all were surprisingly lean. New Kid On The Block Memphis shocked everyone with three GC players all by itself (including the overall No. 1 cJames Wiseman; although his eligibility is under NCAA scrutiny. If he's allowed to play, he'll likely lay claim to GC Of The Year, ahead of Arizona's pNico Mannion.)
     The SOUTHERN CONFERENCE (East Tennessee State, UNC-Greensboro) looks to have a better chance of upholding its high status from last year than the depleted MID-AMERICAN. ASUN/Liberty has all five starters back for another 32-Splash. UC-Irvine has some retooling to do if it wants to make it 4 out of 5 in the BIG WEST with a Splash finish to boot. In the past, a three-time IVY title champ has been able to break through with a Splash win come March - - that's definitely achievable for this year's Havard team with five starters back (and more). Three-time AMERICA EAST title champ Vermont has accomplished nearly everything except an NCAA Splash in the career of star fAnthony Lamb. Similarly, New Mexico State's in-conference dominance of the WAC has yet to lead to a postseason breakthrough.
     The jury is still out on the trend of 1BC Graduate Transfer players moving up to B-Major programs. So far, we've seen valuable role players at best. (gMatt Mooney made the jump last year from being tMike Daum(South Dakota State)'s foil in the SUMMIT at South Dakota to a key figure in BIG12/Texas Tech's run to National Runner-Up; but we haven't seen anyone become an Option No.1 headliner as yet.) cKerry Blackshear Jr.'s sideways move from Virginia Tech to reloaded Florida could well make him GT Of The Year (but keep an eye on gMax Hazzard's jump up from 32-Splash UC-Irvine to reloaded Arizona).
     There's almost nowhere to go but down for BIG 10 (co-)title/TiTo champ Michigan State/Tom Izzo after last year's Final 4 finish, but pWinston alone is enough to expect a repeat performance. While Memphis and cWiseman will be the Shiny New Toy to play with this year, don't be surprised if it's Old Reliable Duke/Mike Krzyzewski that manage to cut down the nets in April as they try to do the 2015 Baby Blues one better with a sophomore point guard leading four GC stars all the way.

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Tuesday's CHAMPIONS CLASSIC (this year at MADISON SQUARE GARDEN in New York) is traditionally the "Coming Out Party" for the top Golden Child "Debutantes". Shockingly, neither Michigan State nor Kansas has a SuperFrosh who qualifies. Kentucky expects/needs a lot from both fKahlil Whitney and gTyrese Maxey while Duke can take its time waiting for any and/or all of cVernon Carey, fMatthew Hurt, fWendell Moore and bCassius Stanley to blossom.
     Florida (GT cKerry Blackshear Jr.; GC gScottie Lewis) has expectations that go well past beating depleted Florida State in this year's SUNSHINE SHOWDOWN (Sunday). Host Ohio State (GC fE.J. Liddell) should have too much for Cincinnati's Cumberland Cousins in their new annual grudge match (Wednesday). Washington's GC frontcourt duo (fIsaiah Stewart and fJaden McDaniels) won't have an easy opener against Baylor at the ARMED FORCES CLASSIC (Friday).
     This year's PAC-12 CHINA GAME (Friday) between Colorado and Arizona State won't count towards the conference standings.
     Look for a 4-4 split in this year's WAC/SUMMIT CHALLENGE (with WAC/New Mexico State[over Denver] and SUMMIT/Oral Roberts[over Chicago State] both able to pull off road wins).

This year, we're on the road HOME TO ATLANTA!!! (P.S. I NEED TICKETS!!!)

Welcome back, y'all!

-- Ron
Key games this week:
Monday:
(None),
Tuesday (ELECTION DAY):
@Baylor-CArkansas, @VCU->StFrancisPA, @Temple-Drexel(PhiladelphiaPA), @CConnecticutSt-Hartford(CT)(CT6), @UNCGreensboro-NCA&T(GreensboroNC), @SDState-TXRGValley,
NYC-A CHAMPIONS CLASSIC DblHdr @ New YorkNY/MSG/
-(@Duke-@Kansas, @MichiganSt-@Kentucky),
SANFORD-A CHALLENGE 1Off @ SiouxFallsSD/PENTAGON/
-(StMarys-Wisconsin),
Tuesday,(Friday-Sunday),Fri 22 Nov:
(new)SUNSHINE SLAM RndRob3 @ KissimmeeFL; WarmUp/CoolDown1 on-campus
-(TXSanAntonio, Delaware, Oakland, SoIllinois),
Wednesday:
@OhioSt-Cincinnati(OH),
Wednesday-Wed 20 Nov:
[R/SCARLET KNIGHT] GARDEN STATE SHOWCASE RndRob4,WarmUp1 on-campus
-(@Rutgers, Bryant, Drexel, Niagara, StephenFAustin),
Wednesday-(Thursday week-Sunday week)-Thu 28 Nov:
[AS]RED WOLF CLASSIC RndRob3 @ JonesboroAR/ArkansasSt/; WarmUp/CoolDown1 on-campus
-(VMI, Idaho, UCDavis, ArkansasSt),
Thursday:
(None),
Thursday-(Friday week-Sunday week)-Thu 21 Nov:
MABC INVITATIONAL RndRob4 on-campus; Cons RndRob2 @ ToledoOH/Toledo/
-(@NotreDame, Marshall, [RobertMorris, @Toledo, Howard]),
Friday:
@LSU-BowlingGreen, @UtahSt-WeberSt(UT), @Liberty-Radford(VA),
@Northeastern-Harvard(BostonMA), @Connecticut-SacredHeart(CT), @ArmyWP-{USMMA}(MIL),
ARMED FORCES CLASSIC DblHdr @ AnchorageAK/JOINT BASE ELMENDORF-RICHARDSON/
-(Washington-Baylor, @{AKAnchorage}-{CoastGuard}),
VETERANS CLASSIC DblHdr @ AnnapolisMD/Navy/
-(Davidson-Auburn, @Navy-ECarolina),
PAC-12 CHINA GAME 1Off @ ShanghaiCHINA
-(@Colorado-@ArizonaSt),
Friday-Monday week:
HAWAII-C [H]RAINBOW CLASSIC RndRob3 @ HonoluluHI/Hawaii/
-(Pacific, @Hawaii, SDakota, FloridaA&M),
Friday,(Friday week-Sunday week)-Fri 22 Nov:
[ML]RIVER HAWK INVITATIONAL RndRob3 @ LowellMA/MALowell/; WarmUp/CoolDown1 on-campus
-(Dartmouth, Jacksonville, @MALowell, {Merrimack}),
Friday-(Thu 28 Nov):
BROOKLYN-A BARCLAYS CLASSIC RndRob4 on-campus; Feature @ BrooklynNY/BARCLAYS/
-(Thu 28 Nov: Memphis-NCState;
   StFrancisNY, LittleRock, AlcornSt; ILChicago),
Saturday:
@TexasTech-BethuneCookman, @GeoWashington-Howard(WashingtonDC), @Denver-UTValley,
SANFORD-B CHALLENGE 1Off @ SiouxFallsSD/PENTAGON/
-(Minnesota-Oklahoma),
Saturday-(Friday week-Mon 18 Nov):
[NCG]SPARTAN INVITATIONAL RndRob3 @ GreensboroNC/UNCGreensboro/; WarmUp1 on-campus
-(@UNCGreensboro, MontanaSt, TennesseeTech, AppalachianSt),
Saturday-(Fri 22 Nov-Sat 23 Nov):
NYC-B 2K EMPIRE CLASSIC 2x4 3rd/Semis @ NewYorkNY/MSG/; Cons 3rd/Semis @ RiversideCA/{CalBaptist}/; WarmUp2 on-campus
-(A: Duke, Cal; @{CalBaptist}, CArkansas;
   B: Georgetown, Texas; GeorgiaSt, PrairieViewA&M),
Saturday-(Sun 24 Nov-Tue 26 Nov):
BROOKLYN-D LEGENDS CLASSIC 2x4 3rd/Semis @ BrooklynNY/BARCLAYS/; Cons 3rd/Semis @ GreenBayWI/GreenBay/; WarmUp2 on-campus
-(A: Auburn, NewMexico; Colgate, @GreenBay;
   B: Wisconsin, Richmond; CalStNorthridge, McNeese),
Saturday-Tue 17 Dec:
WAC[1-0]/SUMMIT[0-1] CHALLENGE on-campus
[Seattle does not play;
North Dakota does not play.]
-(Sat: @CalStBakersfield-SDState;
   Sat 23 Nov: @NDState-UTValley;
   Wed 27 Nov: @{CalBaptist}-SDakota;
   Sat 30 Nov: @GrandCanyon-PurdueFW; @KansasCity-WeIllinois;
   Tue 10 Dec: @Denver-NewMexicoSt;
   Sun 15 Dec: @Omaha-TXRGValley;
   Tue 17 Dec: @ChicagoSt-OralRoberts),
Sunday:
SUNSHINE SHOWDOWN 1Off on-campus
-(@Florida-FloridaSt[FL]),
Sunday-Sun 24 Nov:
GS SHOOTOUT RndRob4 on-campus
-(@Louisville, YoungstownSt, SCUpstate, Akron, NCCentral),
Sunday-(Fri 22 Nov-Sun 24 Nov):
BAHAMAS-B ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS SHOWCASE 8Bracket 2nd/Qtrs @ NassauBAHAMAS; WarmUp1 on-campus
-(Liberty-MorganSt, Rice-Milwaukee; ECarolina-Evansville, GeoWashington-KansasCity),
Sunday-(Wed 20 Nov)-Mon 25 Nov:
(new)SACRAMENTO CLASSIC RndRob3 on-campus; Feature @ SacramentoCA/GOLDEN_1/
-(Wed 20 Nov: @StMarys-FresnoSt[CA];
   Lehigh, Winthrop),
- - - - - -
Monday week:
(None),
Monday week-Thursday week:
GAVITT TIP-OFF GAMES - BIG 10[1-0;3]/BIG EAST[0-1;3] on-campus
[St. John's and Xavier both do not play;
  Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Nebraska, Rutgers and Wisconsin all do not play.]
-(Mon week: @Iowa-DePaul;
   Tue week: @Michigan-Creighton, @Butler-Minnesota;
   Wed week: @OhioSt-Villanova, @Marquette-Purdue, @Northwestern-Providence;
   Thu week: @SetonHall-MichiganSt, @Georgetown-PennSt),
Monday week-(Friday week-Sunday week)-Sat 23 Nov:
[TAMCC]ISLANDER INVITATIONAL RndRob3 @ CorpusChristiTX/TexasA&MCC/; WarmUp/CoolDown1 on-campus
-(NDState, StonyBrook, TXRGValley, @TexasA&MCC),
Monday week-(Thu 21 Nov-Sun 24 Nov):
CHARLESTON[SC] CLASSIC 8Bracket 2nd/Qtrs @ CharlestonSC; WarmUp1 on-campus
-(Florida-StJosephs, MissouriSt-MiamiFL; Xavier-Towson, Connecticut-Buffalo).


Top 25 - 19 Nov 4: PRESEASON - [] Column
  1. Duke
  2. Michigan State
  3. Memphis
  4. Florida
  5. Kentucky
  6. Ohio State
  7. Oregon
  8. Washington
  9. Villanova
  10. Arizona
  11. North Carolina
  12. USC
  13. Maryland
  14. Baylor
  15. Gonzaga
  16. Kansas
  17. Louisville
  18. Michigan
  19. Louisiana State
  20. Virginia
  21. Texas Tech
  22. Marquette
  23. Utah State
  24. Xavier
  25. South Florida
Worth keeping an eye on:
Colorado, Davidson, Harvard, Liberty, UC-Irvine, VCU, Western Kentucky.