16 Mar14 - The Kids In The Hall (PRECONTEST)
Volume XX, No. 19 - 16 Mar14: PRECONTEST - [] FINAL TOP 25 BALLOT
The Kids In The Hall
Anything less than a gap/[1]@Kansas TiTo result in the loaded BIG 12 tournament would have been a shock, but the Jayhawks didn't disappoint. In the 16s, [7]Texas Tech tripped against [10]TCU. In the quarters, [3]Oklahoma edged [5b]Iowa State (79-76 as seniors tBuddy Hield[39p9r] and pGeorge Niang[31p5a7r5to] staged a glorious duel); [5a]Baylor handled [4]Texas (75-61 dominating the boards 42-22). In the semis, [2]West Virginia edged [3]Oklahoma (69-67 as Buddy Hield's halfcourt would-be-game-winner was ruled to be just after the buzzer); [1]@Kansas edged [5a]Baylor (@70-66). In the final, [1]@Kansas handled [2]West Virginia (@81-71 as bDevonte Graham[27p5r] dueled cDevin Williams[31p10r]) to lock up the overall No.1-seed for the NCAA tournament as well.
The loaded BIG EAST tournament at MADISON SQUARE GARDEN offered the promise of a [1]Villanova/[2]Xavier final with a Regional No.1-seed on the line, but The Kids In The Hall (i.e, sophomore-led [3]Seton Hall) had other plans. In the quarters, [4a]Providence handled [5b]Butler (74-60 behind tBen Bentil[38p8r]); [3]Seton Hall beat [6]Creighton (81-73 as tIsaiah Whitehead[24p6a12r] countered tCole Huff[35p9r]). In the semis, [3]Seton Hall upset [2]Xavier (87-83) while [1]Villanova beat [4a]Providence (76-68). In the final, [3]Seton Hall finished the job, edging [1]Villanova (69-67) to cap off the best performance all weekend by any team. It's the first conference tourney crown for SetonH since 1993 [P.J. Carlesimo/Terry Dehere]. (This young team is peaking at exactly the right time. Don't forget that Florida 2006's surprise run to the NCAA title came when that core group were only sophomores as well. Watch out for the Hall in the NCAAs!)
The PAC-12 tournament draw was solid at the top as well. In the quarters, [3b]Arizona edged [5]Colorado (82-78 as both teams shot 79 free throws combined); [2]Utah beat [6b]USC (80-72 on 61 percent shooting); [3a]California beat [6]Oregon State (76-68 despite 25p3a from gDerrick Bruce). In the semis, [1]Oregon edged [3b]Arizona in overtime (95-89[OT] after blowing a 17-point lead in the second half); [2]Utah edged [3a]California in overtime (82-78[OT] as cJakob Poeltl[29p11r] outdueled bTyrone Wallace[26p6r]). In the final, [1]Oregon pounded [2]Utah (88-57). (The tournament-ready Ducks will be a tough out in the NCAAs.)
Even without [4]Louisville, the ACC draw was still loaded and it promised its own showdown for a Regional No.1-seed between [1]North Carolina and [2a]Virginia. In the 16s, [9a]Pittsburgh edged [9b]Syracuse (72-71). In the quarters, [5a]Notre Dame edged [5b]Duke in overtime (84-79[OT] after rallying from down 16 points, led by cZach Auguste[19p22r5to]); [1]North Carolina pounded [9a]Pittsburgh (88-71). In the semis, [2a]Virginia edged [2b]Miami(Florida) (73-68); [1]North Carolina dumped [5a]Notre Dame (78-47 dominating the boards 46-26). In the final, [1]North Carolina got revenge from the regular season, edging [2a]Virginia (61-57).
The BIG 10 tournament was [2]Michigan State's opportunity to prove that it was truly the best team in the conference. In the 16s, [3c]Iowa tripped against [12]Illinois; [3d]Wisconsin was upset by [11]Nebraska. In the quarters, [8]Michigan shocked [1]@Indiana (72-@69 on Kameron Chatman's game-winning three-pointer). In the semis, [2]Michigan State edged [3a]Maryland (64-61); [3b]@Purdue thumped [8]Michigan (@76-59 behind cA.J. Hammons[27p11r]). In the final, [2]Michigan State edged [3b]@Purdue (66-@62). (Remember, if not for the knee surgery that sidelined xDenzel Valentine for a couple of weeks, the Spartans might have been a TiTo champ worthy of a Regional No.1-seed themselves.)
The AMERICAN tournament lost some real lustre without [2]SMU. Arguably, the two best teams met in the quarters when [6]Connecticut went four overtimes with [3c]Cincinnati before prevailing (104-97[4OT] as xDaniel Hamilton[32p8a12r] dueled xTroy Caupain[37p5a10r]); [3b]Tulsa tanked against [7]Memphis; [6]Houston fell to [11]Tulane. From there, [6]Connecticut dumped [1]Temple (77-62) in the semis, and then handled [7]Memphis in the final.
The SEC tournament in Nashville, promised a rematch showdown between co-champs [1a]Texas A&M and [1b]Kentucky, who went to an endplay in College Station during the regular season. In the quarters, "host" [3c]Vanderbilt tripped against arch-/state-rival [12]@Tennessee. In the quarters, [3a]South Carolina tripped as well against [6a]Georgia (64-65). In the expected rematch final, it took overtime before [1b]@Kentucky edged [1a]Texas A&M (@82-77[OT] as pTyler Ulis[30p5a] dueled bDanuel House[32p6r]) to repeat as TiTo champs.
The main question for the WEST COAST tournament was whether [1a]St. Mary's regular season sweep of [1b]Gonzaga would continue in the postseason. In the semis, [1b]Gonzaga edged [3]BYU (88-84 as tKyle Wiltjer[29p8r] countered bNick Emery[27p5r]). In the final, [1b]Gonzaga handled [1a]St. Mary's (85-75 on 62 percent shooting despite 25p6a from pEmmett Naar) for its FOURTH-STRAIGHT TiTo CHAMPIONSHIP.
The MOUNTAIN WEST was supposed to be a breeze for 3-gap/[1]San Diego State. In the quarters, [3]Boise State fell to [6a]Colorado State. In the final, [1]San Diego State tripped against [2]Fresno State, giving FSU its first tourney crown since WAC 2000 (Jerry Tarkanian/Courtney Alexander-Larry Abney-Terrance Robinson).
The regular season didn't settle much in the ATLANTIC 10, which finished with a three-way tie at the top. In the quarters, [6]Davidson upset [1c]@St. Bonaventure in overtime (90-@86[OT] as pJack Gibbs[29p7a] dueled cDion Wright[32p15r]); [4]St. Joseph's beat [5]George Washington (86-80). In the semis, [4]St. Joseph's edged [1a]Dayton (82-79 behind tIsaiah Miles[26p9r]). In the final, [4]St. Joseph's handled [1b]VCU (87-74 as fDeAndre Bembry[30p5r] and xIsaiah Miles[26p12r] both starred).
The 1BC Anti-Spoilers only went 2-2 in their quest to complete TiTo crowns. 3-gap/[1]Valparaiso tripped in the HORIZON semis as [4]Green Bay won in overtime (99-92[OT] as xJordan Fouse[25p10r7a] dueled cAlec Peters[32p12r]); [4]GBay went on to earn its first trip to the NCAAs in 20 years. By contrast, gap/[1]Little Rock cruised through the SUN BELT draw. In the BIG WEST, [1b]UC-Irvine tripped in the semis against [3]@Long Beach State; meanwhile, [1a]Hawaii squeaked by in the final to earn its first NCAA trip since WAC 2002 (Riley Wallace/Pedrag Savovic). In the METRO ATLANTIC, [1]Monmouth and [2]Iona had traded road wins in the regular season, but in the final it was [2]Iona squeaking out a win (@79-76).
Not quite Anti-Spoilers, but 3-gap/undefeated/[1]Stephen F. Austin rolled through the SOUTHLAND draw to earn its third-straight TiTo crown. Gap/[1]Hampton rolled through the MEAC draw as well for its second-straight NCAA berth.
In the SUMMIT, [1a]IPFW tripped up in the semis, leaving the path clear for [1b]South Dakota State to cruise to a TiTo crown. In the SOUTHERN, [1]Chattanooga did just enough to make it a TiTo crown as well. In the COLONIAL, co-champs [1b]UNC-Wilmington and [1a]Hofstra split road wins in the regular season, so nothing was more fitting than an overtime result in the rubber-game showdown final as [1b]UNCW prevailed (80-73[OT] despite 18p23r from cRokas Gustys). In the BIG SKY, [1]Weber State squeaked by rival [2]Montana (62-59) to go TiTo. In AMERICA EAST, playing at home was key as [1]Stony Brook rallied from down 15 in the final as cJameel Warney[43p10r] carried his team to its first trip ever to the NCAAs.
Other 1BC gap-champions also failed to go TiTo, allowing Jack Dawson subsitutes to earn NCAA bids in their place. 3-gap/[1]UAB hosted the CONFERENCE USA tourney and still couldn't come through, falling right away in the quarters to [8]Western Kentucky; in the final, [2]Middle Tennessee edged [3a]Old Dominion (55-53) for the automatic bid. MID-AMERICAN gap/[1/E1]@Akron tripped in the final against [3a]Buffalo (@61-64), the second-straight tourney crown for [3a]Buff. In the WAC, gap/[1]New Mexico State was looking for its fifth-straight tourney crown, but tripped up in the final against [2b]Cal State-Bakersfield, which earned its first-ever trip to the NCAAs. In the NORTHEAST, gap/[1]Wagner fell at home as [2a]Fairleigh Dickinson won (87-@79 as pDarian Anderson[28p5a6r] and bEarl Potts[27p7r] both starred). In the SWAC, 3-gap/[1]Texas Southern fell in the semis to [4]Southern, who went on to a squeak win in the final.
Perhaps worst of the worst, with PATRIOT/[1]Bucknell already out, it was [9]Holy Cross which won 4 road games on the way to the ultimate Jack Dawson bid (complete with a losing record [14-19] to boot) -- Yikes!
When the dust settled, only [W11]Northern Iowa's MVC tourney win qualifies as a true stolen bid as [S11b]Wichita State proved to be a failed Anti-Spoiler that had to rely on an at-large bid into the NCAA tournament. [M14]Fresno State's MWC win proved to be a glorified Jack Dawson performance as San Diego State wasn't deemed strong enough to be a true Anti-Spoiler and garner an at-large bid of its own. WCC/St. Mary's was left out in the cold as well despite going 2-1 against [M11]Gonzaga overall. In all three cases, the overall weak rating of the MWC, WCC and MVC made any conference losses count more negatively than any quality wins.
Among the non-lock teams vying for the few soft at-large bids available, only [E11a]Michigan's win over Indiana and [E6]Notre Dame's win over Duke improved their status. [E8]USC, [M10]Syracuse and [S8]Colorado stood pat but that was enough to garner bids. [W7]Oregon State was not even in the conversation (in my book) and did nothing special in its tourney and yet received a bid. Despite an upset loss in its conference tournament, [M8]Texas Tech received a bid, anyway.
Should-have-been locks BYU and Creighton did nothing wrong, but got no bids. Should-haves St. Mary's and (especially) South Carolina underperformed and paid the price.
Here's the full list of Tito champions vs. the bid-stealing spoilers and Jack Dawsons who are attending The Dance under false pretenses:
That's 14 thoroughbreds against 11(10) imposters -- much weaker than last year (19 up, 8[7] down). Oregon State has no business receiving a bid; St. Mary's had no business being left out. On the plus side of the cut line, I had: St. Mary's, Monmouth, Valparaiso, Princeton, BYU, Creighton, San Diego State, Evansville and South Carolina; on the minus side of the cut line, I had: Notre Dame, (Fresno State), Texas Tech, USC, Syracuse, Colorado and Oregon State -- I'd rather have seen St. Mary's, Monmouth, Valparaiso and BYU instead of Texas Tech, USC, Syracuse and Oregon State.
14 (out of 32) teams were able to be TiTo champions of their leagues -- a modest number (down from 19 last year); 10 (out of 23) 1BCs sent Jack Dawson replacements to the Big Dance (in place of gap-regular season champs; up from 7 last year). That makes this more on par as an average representative field compared to the regular season (compared to last year's fortified selection).
As gap/TiTo champ of the highest rated league, [S1]Kansas' overall No.1-seed was a no-brainer. Two other B-Major TiTo champions ([E1]North Carolina and [W1]Oregon) were unquestioned picks for Regional No.1-seeds as well -- (Although the PAC-12 rated slightly above the ACC, UNC was much higher rated than Oregon individually.) The fourth Regional No.1-seed was debatable. Both gap/B-Major title champ [S2]Villanova and B-Major tourney champ [M2]Michigan State were rated higher than [M1]Virginia while the best wins of MichSt(Kans) and UVa(UNC) were slightly better than Nova(Xavier) -- I'd have given the fourth Regional No.1-seed to MSU. On the S-Curve, it appears they seeded 1-Kans, 2-UNC, 3-UVa, 4-Ore, 5-Ok, 6-MSU, 7-Xav, 8-Nova -- that's a raw deal for Villanova to be paired with Kansas (although Nova was probably technically barred from the Philadelphia Regional and had to be shuffled).
The absence of Louisville and SMU allowed [W3]Texas A&M and [E4]Kentucky to receive Top-16 seeds, qualifying the SEC for official B-Major status. The ATLANTIC 10 (led by [M7]Dayton) and AMERICAN (minus SMU, led by [S9]Connecticut and [W9]Cincinnati) had to settle for Mid-Major status. (The MISSOURI VALLEY was merely a failed Anti-Spoiler league thanks to Party-Crasher [W11]Northern Iowa.) Of the dominant TiTo 1BCs, [M12]Little Rock/SUN BELT and [E14]Stephen F. Austin/SOUTHLAND both appear capable of an upset; [S13]Hawaii/BIG WEST, [W12]Yale/IVY and [E12]Chattanooga/SOUTHERN didn't dominate their leagues, but all seem splashworthy.
Worst overseeding decisions: [W7]Oregon State, [E8]USC, [E6]Notre Dame, [E4]Kentucky, [M4]California, [M10]Syracuse, [W6]Texas, [M7]Dayton, [W11]Northern Iowa, [M8]Colorado, [E7]Wisconsin. Worst underseeding decisions: [S13]Hawaii, [M12]Little Rock, [M11]Gonzaga, [M9]Butler, [E14]Stephen F. Austin, [W12]Yale, [M14]Fresno State, [W9]Cincinnati.
Only a couple of the cushy preferential Pods -- [E1]@North Carolina(Raleigh) as usual and [W2]@Oklahoma(Oklahoma City). For the third-straight year, [M1]Virginia took the second NC Pod(Raleigh) slot (this time away from [W4]Duke).
Toughest first-round games: [M5]Purdue/[M12]Little Rock, [M6]Seton Hall/[M11]Gonzaga, [S13]Hawaii/[S4]California, [W9]Cincinnati/[W8]St. Joseph's, [W5]Baylor/[W12]Yale, [W10]VCU/[W7]Oregon State, [E10]Pittsburgh/[E7]Wisconsin, [E11b]Tulsa/[E11a]Michigan//[E6]Notre Dame. Best chance for a 1BC upset: [S13]Hawaii (over [S4]California).
I like Monmouth, St. Mary's (on the road) over host Valparaiso, BYU (at home) over Creighton, and South Carolina (at home) over San Diego State as the NIT Final Four. The CBI's sole Mid-Major team, Duquesne figures to make the semifinals along with Nevada, Ohio University and Seattle. The CIT couldn't field a full 32 teams (settling for 26 teams, meaning three teams will get byes into the quarterfinals based on their performance in the first round -- UGH) -- slumming Mid-Major Fordham, UC-Irvine, Furman, Mercer, Central Michigan, Ball State and Columbia come from the strongest conferences (but being awarded a home game is the biggest key to winning this tourney). The new VEGAS 16 tournament also had to settle for an 8-team draw -- UC-Santa Barbara, East Tennessee State, Northern Illinois and Towson come from the strongest conferences.
Both Villlanova and Virginia have a lot to prove after both being highly seeded flops last year. Poor MVC/Evansville, which had a much stronger season than last year (when it won the CIT) was out of luck as far as an NCAA at-large bid (understandable) but also got passed over for an NIT at-large bid (most notably skipped in favor of BIGW/Long Beach State and IVY/Princeton); too proud to settle for CBI, a return to CIT or step down to V16, the Purple Aces are staying home entirely for the postseason -- AAARRRGGGHHH!!!
-- Ron
P.S. If you're interested, the 32nd Annual Hoops Contest is now open for entry (through 6:30PMet TUESDAY, 15 MARCH).
FINAL TOP 25 - 16 Mar14: PRECONTEST - [] Column
The Kids In The Hall
Anything less than a gap/[1]@Kansas TiTo result in the loaded BIG 12 tournament would have been a shock, but the Jayhawks didn't disappoint. In the 16s, [7]Texas Tech tripped against [10]TCU. In the quarters, [3]Oklahoma edged [5b]Iowa State (79-76 as seniors tBuddy Hield[39p9r] and pGeorge Niang[31p5a7r5to] staged a glorious duel); [5a]Baylor handled [4]Texas (75-61 dominating the boards 42-22). In the semis, [2]West Virginia edged [3]Oklahoma (69-67 as Buddy Hield's halfcourt would-be-game-winner was ruled to be just after the buzzer); [1]@Kansas edged [5a]Baylor (@70-66). In the final, [1]@Kansas handled [2]West Virginia (@81-71 as bDevonte Graham[27p5r] dueled cDevin Williams[31p10r]) to lock up the overall No.1-seed for the NCAA tournament as well.
The loaded BIG EAST tournament at MADISON SQUARE GARDEN offered the promise of a [1]Villanova/[2]Xavier final with a Regional No.1-seed on the line, but The Kids In The Hall (i.e, sophomore-led [3]Seton Hall) had other plans. In the quarters, [4a]Providence handled [5b]Butler (74-60 behind tBen Bentil[38p8r]); [3]Seton Hall beat [6]Creighton (81-73 as tIsaiah Whitehead[24p6a12r] countered tCole Huff[35p9r]). In the semis, [3]Seton Hall upset [2]Xavier (87-83) while [1]Villanova beat [4a]Providence (76-68). In the final, [3]Seton Hall finished the job, edging [1]Villanova (69-67) to cap off the best performance all weekend by any team. It's the first conference tourney crown for SetonH since 1993 [P.J. Carlesimo/Terry Dehere]. (This young team is peaking at exactly the right time. Don't forget that Florida 2006's surprise run to the NCAA title came when that core group were only sophomores as well. Watch out for the Hall in the NCAAs!)
The PAC-12 tournament draw was solid at the top as well. In the quarters, [3b]Arizona edged [5]Colorado (82-78 as both teams shot 79 free throws combined); [2]Utah beat [6b]USC (80-72 on 61 percent shooting); [3a]California beat [6]Oregon State (76-68 despite 25p3a from gDerrick Bruce). In the semis, [1]Oregon edged [3b]Arizona in overtime (95-89[OT] after blowing a 17-point lead in the second half); [2]Utah edged [3a]California in overtime (82-78[OT] as cJakob Poeltl[29p11r] outdueled bTyrone Wallace[26p6r]). In the final, [1]Oregon pounded [2]Utah (88-57). (The tournament-ready Ducks will be a tough out in the NCAAs.)
Even without [4]Louisville, the ACC draw was still loaded and it promised its own showdown for a Regional No.1-seed between [1]North Carolina and [2a]Virginia. In the 16s, [9a]Pittsburgh edged [9b]Syracuse (72-71). In the quarters, [5a]Notre Dame edged [5b]Duke in overtime (84-79[OT] after rallying from down 16 points, led by cZach Auguste[19p22r5to]); [1]North Carolina pounded [9a]Pittsburgh (88-71). In the semis, [2a]Virginia edged [2b]Miami(Florida) (73-68); [1]North Carolina dumped [5a]Notre Dame (78-47 dominating the boards 46-26). In the final, [1]North Carolina got revenge from the regular season, edging [2a]Virginia (61-57).
The BIG 10 tournament was [2]Michigan State's opportunity to prove that it was truly the best team in the conference. In the 16s, [3c]Iowa tripped against [12]Illinois; [3d]Wisconsin was upset by [11]Nebraska. In the quarters, [8]Michigan shocked [1]@Indiana (72-@69 on Kameron Chatman's game-winning three-pointer). In the semis, [2]Michigan State edged [3a]Maryland (64-61); [3b]@Purdue thumped [8]Michigan (@76-59 behind cA.J. Hammons[27p11r]). In the final, [2]Michigan State edged [3b]@Purdue (66-@62). (Remember, if not for the knee surgery that sidelined xDenzel Valentine for a couple of weeks, the Spartans might have been a TiTo champ worthy of a Regional No.1-seed themselves.)
The AMERICAN tournament lost some real lustre without [2]SMU. Arguably, the two best teams met in the quarters when [6]Connecticut went four overtimes with [3c]Cincinnati before prevailing (104-97[4OT] as xDaniel Hamilton[32p8a12r] dueled xTroy Caupain[37p5a10r]); [3b]Tulsa tanked against [7]Memphis; [6]Houston fell to [11]Tulane. From there, [6]Connecticut dumped [1]Temple (77-62) in the semis, and then handled [7]Memphis in the final.
The SEC tournament in Nashville, promised a rematch showdown between co-champs [1a]Texas A&M and [1b]Kentucky, who went to an endplay in College Station during the regular season. In the quarters, "host" [3c]Vanderbilt tripped against arch-/state-rival [12]@Tennessee. In the quarters, [3a]South Carolina tripped as well against [6a]Georgia (64-65). In the expected rematch final, it took overtime before [1b]@Kentucky edged [1a]Texas A&M (@82-77[OT] as pTyler Ulis[30p5a] dueled bDanuel House[32p6r]) to repeat as TiTo champs.
The main question for the WEST COAST tournament was whether [1a]St. Mary's regular season sweep of [1b]Gonzaga would continue in the postseason. In the semis, [1b]Gonzaga edged [3]BYU (88-84 as tKyle Wiltjer[29p8r] countered bNick Emery[27p5r]). In the final, [1b]Gonzaga handled [1a]St. Mary's (85-75 on 62 percent shooting despite 25p6a from pEmmett Naar) for its FOURTH-STRAIGHT TiTo CHAMPIONSHIP.
The MOUNTAIN WEST was supposed to be a breeze for 3-gap/[1]San Diego State. In the quarters, [3]Boise State fell to [6a]Colorado State. In the final, [1]San Diego State tripped against [2]Fresno State, giving FSU its first tourney crown since WAC 2000 (Jerry Tarkanian/Courtney Alexander-Larry Abney-Terrance Robinson).
The regular season didn't settle much in the ATLANTIC 10, which finished with a three-way tie at the top. In the quarters, [6]Davidson upset [1c]@St. Bonaventure in overtime (90-@86[OT] as pJack Gibbs[29p7a] dueled cDion Wright[32p15r]); [4]St. Joseph's beat [5]George Washington (86-80). In the semis, [4]St. Joseph's edged [1a]Dayton (82-79 behind tIsaiah Miles[26p9r]). In the final, [4]St. Joseph's handled [1b]VCU (87-74 as fDeAndre Bembry[30p5r] and xIsaiah Miles[26p12r] both starred).
The 1BC Anti-Spoilers only went 2-2 in their quest to complete TiTo crowns. 3-gap/[1]Valparaiso tripped in the HORIZON semis as [4]Green Bay won in overtime (99-92[OT] as xJordan Fouse[25p10r7a] dueled cAlec Peters[32p12r]); [4]GBay went on to earn its first trip to the NCAAs in 20 years. By contrast, gap/[1]Little Rock cruised through the SUN BELT draw. In the BIG WEST, [1b]UC-Irvine tripped in the semis against [3]@Long Beach State; meanwhile, [1a]Hawaii squeaked by in the final to earn its first NCAA trip since WAC 2002 (Riley Wallace/Pedrag Savovic). In the METRO ATLANTIC, [1]Monmouth and [2]Iona had traded road wins in the regular season, but in the final it was [2]Iona squeaking out a win (@79-76).
Not quite Anti-Spoilers, but 3-gap/undefeated/[1]Stephen F. Austin rolled through the SOUTHLAND draw to earn its third-straight TiTo crown. Gap/[1]Hampton rolled through the MEAC draw as well for its second-straight NCAA berth.
In the SUMMIT, [1a]IPFW tripped up in the semis, leaving the path clear for [1b]South Dakota State to cruise to a TiTo crown. In the SOUTHERN, [1]Chattanooga did just enough to make it a TiTo crown as well. In the COLONIAL, co-champs [1b]UNC-Wilmington and [1a]Hofstra split road wins in the regular season, so nothing was more fitting than an overtime result in the rubber-game showdown final as [1b]UNCW prevailed (80-73[OT] despite 18p23r from cRokas Gustys). In the BIG SKY, [1]Weber State squeaked by rival [2]Montana (62-59) to go TiTo. In AMERICA EAST, playing at home was key as [1]Stony Brook rallied from down 15 in the final as cJameel Warney[43p10r] carried his team to its first trip ever to the NCAAs.
Other 1BC gap-champions also failed to go TiTo, allowing Jack Dawson subsitutes to earn NCAA bids in their place. 3-gap/[1]UAB hosted the CONFERENCE USA tourney and still couldn't come through, falling right away in the quarters to [8]Western Kentucky; in the final, [2]Middle Tennessee edged [3a]Old Dominion (55-53) for the automatic bid. MID-AMERICAN gap/[1/E1]@Akron tripped in the final against [3a]Buffalo (@61-64), the second-straight tourney crown for [3a]Buff. In the WAC, gap/[1]New Mexico State was looking for its fifth-straight tourney crown, but tripped up in the final against [2b]Cal State-Bakersfield, which earned its first-ever trip to the NCAAs. In the NORTHEAST, gap/[1]Wagner fell at home as [2a]Fairleigh Dickinson won (87-@79 as pDarian Anderson[28p5a6r] and bEarl Potts[27p7r] both starred). In the SWAC, 3-gap/[1]Texas Southern fell in the semis to [4]Southern, who went on to a squeak win in the final.
Perhaps worst of the worst, with PATRIOT/[1]Bucknell already out, it was [9]Holy Cross which won 4 road games on the way to the ultimate Jack Dawson bid (complete with a losing record [14-19] to boot) -- Yikes!
When the dust settled, only [W11]Northern Iowa's MVC tourney win qualifies as a true stolen bid as [S11b]Wichita State proved to be a failed Anti-Spoiler that had to rely on an at-large bid into the NCAA tournament. [M14]Fresno State's MWC win proved to be a glorified Jack Dawson performance as San Diego State wasn't deemed strong enough to be a true Anti-Spoiler and garner an at-large bid of its own. WCC/St. Mary's was left out in the cold as well despite going 2-1 against [M11]Gonzaga overall. In all three cases, the overall weak rating of the MWC, WCC and MVC made any conference losses count more negatively than any quality wins.
Among the non-lock teams vying for the few soft at-large bids available, only [E11a]Michigan's win over Indiana and [E6]Notre Dame's win over Duke improved their status. [E8]USC, [M10]Syracuse and [S8]Colorado stood pat but that was enough to garner bids. [W7]Oregon State was not even in the conversation (in my book) and did nothing special in its tourney and yet received a bid. Despite an upset loss in its conference tournament, [M8]Texas Tech received a bid, anyway.
Should-have-been locks BYU and Creighton did nothing wrong, but got no bids. Should-haves St. Mary's and (especially) South Carolina underperformed and paid the price.
Here's the full list of Tito champions vs. the bid-stealing spoilers and Jack Dawsons who are attending The Dance under false pretenses:
| TiTo | Spoiler | Jack Dawson |
BIG 12: [1]+2 Kansas PAC-12: [1] Oregon ACC: [1] North Carolina SEC: [1b]+2 Kentucky SUMMIT: [1b]+2 South Dakota State BIG W: [1] Hawaii SOCON: [1] Chattanooga WCC: [1b]+2 Gonzaga COLON: [1b]+3 UNC-Wilmington SUN B: [1]+2 Little Rock SKY: [1]Weber State AMER E: [1]Stony Brook SLAND: [1]u+3 Stephen F. Austin MEAC: [1]Hampton | MVC: [4a]Northern Iowa | MWC: "[1]+3 San Diego State" (3-[2]Fresno State) MAC: "[1/E1]+2 Akron" ([3a]Buffalo) OVC: "[1/E] Belmont" (2-[8]Austin Peay) HORIZ: "[1}+3 Valparaiso" ([4]Green Bay) C-USA: "[1]+3 UAB" (3-[2]Middle Tennessee) WAC: "[1]+2 New Mexico State" (2-[2b]Cal State-Bakersfield) PAT: "[1] Bucknell" (3-[9]Holy Cross) A-SUN: "[1]+2 North Florida" (2-[2c]Florida Gulf Coast) NEC: "[2]+2 Wagner" (2-[2a]Fairleigh Dickinson) SWAC: "[1]+3 Texas Southern" ([4]Southern) |
That's 14 thoroughbreds against 11(10) imposters -- much weaker than last year (19 up, 8[7] down). Oregon State has no business receiving a bid; St. Mary's had no business being left out. On the plus side of the cut line, I had: St. Mary's, Monmouth, Valparaiso, Princeton, BYU, Creighton, San Diego State, Evansville and South Carolina; on the minus side of the cut line, I had: Notre Dame, (Fresno State), Texas Tech, USC, Syracuse, Colorado and Oregon State -- I'd rather have seen St. Mary's, Monmouth, Valparaiso and BYU instead of Texas Tech, USC, Syracuse and Oregon State.
14 (out of 32) teams were able to be TiTo champions of their leagues -- a modest number (down from 19 last year); 10 (out of 23) 1BCs sent Jack Dawson replacements to the Big Dance (in place of gap-regular season champs; up from 7 last year). That makes this more on par as an average representative field compared to the regular season (compared to last year's fortified selection).
As gap/TiTo champ of the highest rated league, [S1]Kansas' overall No.1-seed was a no-brainer. Two other B-Major TiTo champions ([E1]North Carolina and [W1]Oregon) were unquestioned picks for Regional No.1-seeds as well -- (Although the PAC-12 rated slightly above the ACC, UNC was much higher rated than Oregon individually.) The fourth Regional No.1-seed was debatable. Both gap/B-Major title champ [S2]Villanova and B-Major tourney champ [M2]Michigan State were rated higher than [M1]Virginia while the best wins of MichSt(Kans) and UVa(UNC) were slightly better than Nova(Xavier) -- I'd have given the fourth Regional No.1-seed to MSU. On the S-Curve, it appears they seeded 1-Kans, 2-UNC, 3-UVa, 4-Ore, 5-Ok, 6-MSU, 7-Xav, 8-Nova -- that's a raw deal for Villanova to be paired with Kansas (although Nova was probably technically barred from the Philadelphia Regional and had to be shuffled).
The absence of Louisville and SMU allowed [W3]Texas A&M and [E4]Kentucky to receive Top-16 seeds, qualifying the SEC for official B-Major status. The ATLANTIC 10 (led by [M7]Dayton) and AMERICAN (minus SMU, led by [S9]Connecticut and [W9]Cincinnati) had to settle for Mid-Major status. (The MISSOURI VALLEY was merely a failed Anti-Spoiler league thanks to Party-Crasher [W11]Northern Iowa.) Of the dominant TiTo 1BCs, [M12]Little Rock/SUN BELT and [E14]Stephen F. Austin/SOUTHLAND both appear capable of an upset; [S13]Hawaii/BIG WEST, [W12]Yale/IVY and [E12]Chattanooga/SOUTHERN didn't dominate their leagues, but all seem splashworthy.
Worst overseeding decisions: [W7]Oregon State, [E8]USC, [E6]Notre Dame, [E4]Kentucky, [M4]California, [M10]Syracuse, [W6]Texas, [M7]Dayton, [W11]Northern Iowa, [M8]Colorado, [E7]Wisconsin. Worst underseeding decisions: [S13]Hawaii, [M12]Little Rock, [M11]Gonzaga, [M9]Butler, [E14]Stephen F. Austin, [W12]Yale, [M14]Fresno State, [W9]Cincinnati.
Only a couple of the cushy preferential Pods -- [E1]@North Carolina(Raleigh) as usual and [W2]@Oklahoma(Oklahoma City). For the third-straight year, [M1]Virginia took the second NC Pod(Raleigh) slot (this time away from [W4]Duke).
Toughest first-round games: [M5]Purdue/[M12]Little Rock, [M6]Seton Hall/[M11]Gonzaga, [S13]Hawaii/[S4]California, [W9]Cincinnati/[W8]St. Joseph's, [W5]Baylor/[W12]Yale, [W10]VCU/[W7]Oregon State, [E10]Pittsburgh/[E7]Wisconsin, [E11b]Tulsa/[E11a]Michigan//[E6]Notre Dame. Best chance for a 1BC upset: [S13]Hawaii (over [S4]California).
I like Monmouth, St. Mary's (on the road) over host Valparaiso, BYU (at home) over Creighton, and South Carolina (at home) over San Diego State as the NIT Final Four. The CBI's sole Mid-Major team, Duquesne figures to make the semifinals along with Nevada, Ohio University and Seattle. The CIT couldn't field a full 32 teams (settling for 26 teams, meaning three teams will get byes into the quarterfinals based on their performance in the first round -- UGH) -- slumming Mid-Major Fordham, UC-Irvine, Furman, Mercer, Central Michigan, Ball State and Columbia come from the strongest conferences (but being awarded a home game is the biggest key to winning this tourney). The new VEGAS 16 tournament also had to settle for an 8-team draw -- UC-Santa Barbara, East Tennessee State, Northern Illinois and Towson come from the strongest conferences.
Both Villlanova and Virginia have a lot to prove after both being highly seeded flops last year. Poor MVC/Evansville, which had a much stronger season than last year (when it won the CIT) was out of luck as far as an NCAA at-large bid (understandable) but also got passed over for an NIT at-large bid (most notably skipped in favor of BIGW/Long Beach State and IVY/Princeton); too proud to settle for CBI, a return to CIT or step down to V16, the Purple Aces are staying home entirely for the postseason -- AAARRRGGGHHH!!!
-- Ron
P.S. If you're interested, the 32nd Annual Hoops Contest is now open for entry (through 6:30PMet TUESDAY, 15 MARCH).
- Key games this week:
- NCAA
- Tuesday:
- OpenRd/128s FIRST FOUR @DaytonOH
- [S11a]Vanderbilt v [S11b]Wichita St
- [E16a]
FL Gulf Coastv [E16b]Fairleigh Dickinson
- Wednesday:
- OpenRd/128s FIRST FOUR @DaytonOH
- [E11a]Michigan v [E11b]Tulsa
- [W16a]
Holy Crossv [W16b]Southern
- Thursday, Saturday:
- 1stRd/64s POD @DesMoinesIA
- [S1]Kansas v [S16]
Austin Peay
- [S8]Colorado v [S9]Connecticut
- [E4]@Kentucky v [E13]
Stony Brook
- [E5]Indiana v [E12]Chattanooga
- 1stRd/64s POD @RaleighNC
- [E1]@N Carolina v {[E16a]
FLGulfCoast/[E16b]FairleighDickinson}
- [E8]USC v [E9]Providence
- [M1]Virginia v [M16]
Hampton(VA)
- [M8]Texas Tech v [M9]Butler
- 1stRd/64s POD @ProvidenceRI
- [S3]Miami-FL v [S14]
Buffalo
- [S6]Arizona v {[S11a]Vanderbilt/[S11b]WichitaSt}
- [W4]Duke v [W13]
UNC-Wilmington(NC)
- [W5]Baylor v [W12]Yale
- 1stRd/64s POD @DenverCO
- [M3]Utah v [M14]Fresno St
- [M6]Seton Hall v [M11]Gonzaga
- [M4]Iowa St v [M13]
Iona
- [M5]Purdue v [M12]Little Rock
- Friday, Sunday:
- 1stRd/64s POD @SpokaneWA
- [W1]Oregon v {[W16a]
HolyCross/[W16b]Southern}
- [W8]St Joseph's v [W9]Cincinnati
- [S4]California v [S13]Hawaii
- [S5]Maryland v [S12]
SD State
- 1stRd/64s POD @OklahomaCityOK
- [W2]@Oklahoma v [W15]
Cal St-Bakersfield
- [W7]Oregon St v [W10]VCU
- [W3]Texas A&M v [W14]
Green Bay
- [W6]Texas v [W11]No Iowa
- 1stRd/64s POD @StLouisMO
- [M2]Michigan St v [M15]Mid Tennessee
- [M7]Dayton v [M10]Syracuse
- [E2]Xavier v [E15]
Weber St
- [E7]Wisconsin v [E10]Pittsburgh
- 1stRd/64s POD @BrooklynNY
- [S2]Villanova v [S15]
UNC-Asheville
- [S7]Iowa v [S10]Temple
- [E3]W Virginia v [E14]Stephen F Austin
- [E6]Notre Dame v {[E11a]Michigan/[E11b]Tulsa}
- NIT
- [S11a]Vanderbilt v [S11b]Wichita St
- Tuesday:
- 1stRd/32s on-campus
- @ [s1]Valparaiso v [s8]
Texas So
- @ [w1]S Carolina v [w8]
High Pt
- @ [s2]St Mary's v [s7]
New Mexico St
- @ [w2]San Diego St v [w7]
IPFW
- [e2]
Florida@ [e7]N Florida(FL)
- @ [w3]Washington v [w6]Long Beach St
- @ [e3]Ohio St v [e6]
Akron(OH)
- @ [n4]Creighton v [n5]Alabama
- @ [s4]Florida St v [s5]
Davidson
- Wednesday:
- 1stRd/32s on-campus
- @ [e1]Monmouth v [e8]
Bucknell
- @ [n1]St Bonaventure v [n8]
Wagner(NY)
- @ [n2]BYU v [n7]UAB
- @ [n3]Virginia Tech v [n6]Princeton
- @ [s3]
Georgiav [s6]Belmont
- @ [w4]
Georgia Techv [w5]Houston
- @ [e4]Geo Washington v [e5]
Hofstra
- Thursday-Monday week:
- 16s on-campus
- @{[s1]Valparaiso/[s8]
TexasSo} v {[s4]FloridaSt/[s5]Davidson}
- @{[s2]StMarys/[s7]
NewMexicoSt} v {[s3]Georgia/[s6]Belmont}
- @{[e1]Monmouth/[e8]
Bucknell} v {[e4]GeoWashington/[e5]Hofstra}
- @{[e2]
Florida/[e7]NFlorida} v {[e3]OhioSt/[e6]Akron}
- @{[n1]StBonaventure/[n8]
Wagner} v {[n4]Creighton/[n5]Alabama}
- @{[n2]BYU/[n7]UAB} v {[n3]VirginiaTech/[n6]Princeton}
- @{[w1]SCarolina/[w8]
HighPt} v {[w4]GeorgiaTech/[w5]Houston}
- @{[w2]SanDiegoSt/[w7]
IPFW} v [w3]Washington/[w6]LongBeachSt}
- Tuesday week-Wednesday week:
- Qtrs on-campus
- Tue 29 Mar, Thu 31 Mar
- Semis,Final @ New York NY /MSG/
- {s/Valparaiso} v {n/StBonaventure}
- {e/Monmouth} v {w/SCarolina}
- CBI
- @ [s1]Valparaiso v [s8]
- Tuesday:
- 1stRd/16s on-campus
- (eB): @ Siena v Morehead St
- Wednesday:
- 1stRd/16s on-campus
- (eA): @ Duquesne v Omaha
- (wA): @ Nevada v
Montana
- (sA): @ Ohio U v
Albany
- (sB): @ UNC-Greensboro v Houston Baptist
- (mB): @ Vermont v We Carolina
- (wB): @ Ea Washington v Pepperdine
- (mA): @ Seattle v Idaho
- Monday week:
- Qtrs on-campus (by region)
- (e): {Duquesne/Omaha} v {Siena/MoreheadSt}
- (w): {Nevada/
Montana} v {Pepperdine/EaWashington}
- (m): {WeCarolina/Vermont} v {Seattle/Idaho}
- (s): {OhioU/
Albany} v {UNCGreensboro/HoustonBaptist}
- Wednesday week:
- Semis on-campus (re-seeded)
- Mon 28 Mar, Wed 30 Mar, (if necessary: Fri 1 Apr):
- Finals on-campus (Best of 3)
- CIT
- (eB): @ Siena v Morehead St
- Monday:
- 1stRd/32s on-campus
- @
{Grand Canyon}v SC State ((new)JOHN McCLENDON CLASSIC @ Phoenix, AZ)
- @ Sam Houston St v Jackson St
- Tuesday:
- 1stRd/32s on-campus
- @ Tennessee St v Ball St
- @ Furman v LA-Monroe
- @
Co Carolinav Mercer
- Wednesday:
- 1stRd/32s on-campus
- @ Fordham v Boston U
- @ N Dakota v
UC-Irvine
- @
C Michiganv TN-Martin
- @ Columbia v Norfolk St
- @ Fairfield v New Hampshire
- @
Louisianav Texas A&M-CC
- @ Savannah St v
TX-Arlington
- @ NJIT v Army-WP
- Thursday-Monday week:
- 2ndRd/16s on-campus
- Wednesday week-Thursday week:
- Qtrs on-campus [re-seeded]
- Sunday week:
- Semis on-campus [re-seeded]
- Tue 29 Mar:
- Final on-campus
- (new)V16 (VEGAS 16) @LasVegasNV/MANDALAY/
- @
- Mon 28 Mar:
- 1stRd/Qtrs
- UC-Santa Barbara v No Illinois
- E Tennessee St v Louisiana Tech
- Towson v Oakland
- Tennessee Tech v Old Dominion
- Tue 29 Mar:
- Semis
- {UCSantaBarbara/NoIllinois} v {TennesseeTech/OldDominion}
- {ETennesseeSt/LouisianaTech} v {Towson/Oakland}
- Wed 30 Mar:
- Final
- UC-Santa Barbara v No Illinois
FINAL TOP 25 - 16 Mar14: PRECONTEST - [] Column
- Kansas (29-4) BIG12+2 [BIG12t] [v3:MAUI] (vSEC) (vKC.SHOOT)
- Oregon (28-5) PAC12+2 [PAC12t] [rr4vGS-A] (@PEARL)
- North Carolina (28-6) ACC [ACCt] [2v:@CBE] (vBIG10) (:VETERANS) (vSPORTS)
- Villanova (29-5) BIG.E+2 BIG5u [2v2:NIT.T-O] (vBIG10)
- Michigan State (29-5) [BIG10t] [v3:WL/ANAHEIM] (@@CHAMPS) (vACC) (@WINTER)
- Virginia (26-7) [3:CHARLESTON] (:JIMMY.V) (@BIG10)
- West Virginia (25-8) [2v2:LVI-T] (@@CAPITAL)
- Oklahoma (24-7) [3:DIAMOND] (:PEARL) (@SEC)
- Xavier (26-5) [3:A/ORLANDO] (vXTOWN) (@BIG10) (@PROSSER)
- Utah (25-8) (@AI/NYC-X)
- Seton Hall (25-8) [BIG.Et] (@NJ)
- Miami(Florida) (25-7) [3:P.RICO] (@BIG10) (vFL)
- Indiana (25-7) BIG10+2 (@@XROADS) (vBIG.E)
- SMU (25-5) [2v2:LVC-X] (@DFW)
- Louisville (22-8) [rr3v:BRK-T-B] [.5vvMINARDI]
- Kentucky (26-8) .5SEC+2 [vSECt] [rr4vHOF-A] (@@CHAMPS)
- Texas A&M (26-8) .5SEC+2 (vBIG12)
- Purdue (25-8) [2v2:HOF-B] (@ACC)
- Arizona (25-8)
- Maryland (24-8) [2v2:CANCUN] (@JIMMY.V) (vBIG.E)
- Iowa State (21-11) [2v2:EMERALD] (vCY-HAWK) (:SANFORD)
- Duke (23-10) [2v2:2K] (vBIG10)
- St. Joseph's [A10t]
- Connecticut [AMERt]
- Gonzaga .5WCC+2 [WCCt] (vSEATTLE)
- Honorable Mention:
- Michigan (20-12) (@ACC) (@@SUPER), Illinois (15-19) (@@BRAGGIN'), Notre Dame (20-11) (@BIG10), Providence (23-10) (vBIG10) (@RI), Fresno State (23-9) [MWCt] [3v:ROUNDBALL].
Baylor (21-11) (vSEC).
South Dakota State(24-7) .5SUMMIT+2 [vSUMMITt],
Hawaii (25-5) .5BIG.W [@BIG.Wt] [rr3vRAINBOW],
Chattanooga (27-5) SOCON [SOCONt],
Buffalo(19-14) [@MAC],
UNC-Wilmington (23-7) .5COLON+3 [COLONt] [.5::MINARDI],
Iona(22-10) [vMAACt],
Green Bay(19-12) [HORIZt],
Mid Tennessee (22-9) [C-USAt] [3:GREAT.AK],
Little Rock (27-4) SUN.B+2 [SUN.Bt],
Cal State-Bakersfield(20-8) [WACt],
Holy Cross(14-19) [@PATt],
Weber State(23-8) SKY [SKYt] [v3:GULF.CST],
Stony Brook(22-6) AMER.E [vAMER.Et],
Stephen F. Austin (20-5) SLANDu+3 [vSLANDt],
Fairleigh Dickinson(17-14) [@NECt],
Southern(19-12) [@SWACt],
Hampton(20-1) MEAC+2 [vMEACt].
posted by Ron @ Monday, June 06, 2016
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