Hoop, Line And Sinker

A weekly column on men's college basketball.

Monday, March 24, 2014

14 Mar17 - Gator Done (PRECONTEST)

Volume XVIII, No. 20 - 14 Mar17: PRECONTEST - [] FINAL TOP 25 BALLOT

Gator Done

[3b]Connecticut blew out host [3c]Memphis (72-@53) and hung on to edge co-champ [1a]Cincinnati 58-56; but it was co-champ [1b]Louisville who handled the Huskies in the final (71-61) to claim the inaugural AMERICAN crown TiTo.

    
[1]Florida escaped [4]Tennessee's slowdown game (56-49) and escaped vs energized [2a]@Kentucky (and its intimidating crowd support; 61-@60) to complete the TiTo SEC crown.

    
[5]Pittsburgh knocked off [3b]@North Carolina (80-@75); [7a]@N.C. State tripped [2]Syracuse (@66-63); but it was [1]Virginia who edged [5]Pitt (51-48) and beat [3a]@Duke (72-@63) to claim the ACC crown TiTo.

    
[1]Gonzaga had no trouble doubling inside the WEST COAST, beating [2a]BYU (75-64).

[6b]Baylor upended [2]Oklahoma (78-73) and blew out [3a]Texas (86-69); but it was [3b]Iowa State who outlasted [5]@Kansas State (91-@85), outran undermanned [1]@Kansas (94-@83) and then handled [6b]Baylor (74-65) to claim the BIG 12 crown.

    
[1]Michigan edged [5]Ohio State (72-69), but it was [2b]Michigan State who showed how good it is when fully healthy that bested [2a]Wisconsin (83-75) and then handled [1]Michigan (69-55) to run through the BIG 10 draw.

    
In the PAC-12 tourney, [3c]Colorado edged [3b]California (59-56); [3d]Stanford crushed [3c]Arizona State (79-58); [1]Arizona rolled [3c]Colorado (63-43) and [8a]Utah (71-39); but it was [2]UCLA who won the weekend, pounding [3e]Oregon (82-63) and [3d]Stanford (84-59) before outbattling [1]Arizona (75-71) to take the crown.

    
In the MOUNTAIN WEST rubber match, [2]New Mexico outbattled [1]San Diego State, 64-58, to claim the crown.

Both the BIG EAST and ATLANTIC 10 provided Party-Crasher champs. With [1]Villanova bombing out right away (63-64 on a buzzer-beater to [8]Seton Hall), [2]Creighton was able to stave off [3]Xavier (86-78) but couldn't fulfill its Anti-Spoiler duties, allowing [3b]Providence to take the final (65-58) (and steal an NCAA at-large bid).

    
[1]St. Louis was bounced immediately by [9]@St. Bonaventure (68-@71); [3a]George Washington handled [5b]Massachusetts (85-77); then [2]VCU rolled [3a]George Washington (74-55); but it was [3b]St. Joseph's who spoiled the show, edging [5a]Dayton (70-67) and then [2]VCU (65-61) in the final (sending yet another Bubble team to the NIT pool).

In 1BC-land, some TiTo champs proved their worth. Undef/4-GAP-champ [1]Stephen F. Austin cruised to the SOUTHLAND double (@68-@49) over [3]@Sam Houston State in the final. Gap-champ [1]North Dakota State edged [2a]IPFW (60-57) in the SUMMIT final. Gap-champ [1]Weber State rolled at home (@88-67) past [2a]North Dakota in the BIG SKY. Gap-champ [1]North Carolina Central handled its business (71-62) over [3a]Morgan State in the MEAC.

    
MAC co-champ [1a/W1a]Western Michigan routed co-champ [1b/W1b]Toledo (98-@77) in the decisive MID-AMERICAN final. After [1d]Southern Mississippi handled host [5]UTEP (64-@56), and [1a]Louisiana Tech routed [1d]Southern Mississippi (88-70), it was [1d]Tulsa who settled the four-way tie in CONFERENCE USA, handling [1c]Middle Tennessee (76-69) and then [1a]Louisiana Tech (69-60) in the final. [1]Delaware had a scare, but hung on to double in the COLONIAL (75-74) past [3]William & Mary.

    
When [1]Utah Valley went down (69-74) to [5b]Idaho; [2]New Mexico State stepped in to fill the void with an easy 77-55 win past [5b]Idaho to claim the WAC crown -- a fair swap.

    
Full-on Jack Dawson champs either replaced gap-champs or (worse) were bottom-feeder substitutes. [2]American drubbed gap-champ [1]Boston University (55-@36) to claim the PATRIOT. [5a]Milwaukee won at gap-champ [1]Green Bay (73-@66) and at [3]Wright State (69-@63) in the HORIZON final. [6b]@Cal Poly-SLO edged [1]@UC-Irvine (@61-@58), dumped [2]@UC-Santa Barbara (@69-@38) and then hung on (@61-@59) over [5]@Cal State-Northridge to claim the BIG WEST crown. 5-GAP-champ [1]Georgia State had the game in hand, but choked it away as [3]@Louisiana rallied to take the SUN BELT crown (@82-81[OT]). Host [4]Albany knocked out gap-champ [1]Vermont (@67-58), then won at [2]Stony Brook (69-@60) to take AMERICA EAST. [2]Manhattan won the rubber match with gap-champ [1]Iona (71-68) to claim the METRO ATLANTIC. In the NORTHEAST, [4a]Mount St. Mary's rolled gap-champ host [1]Robert Morris (88-@71). Ineligible anway, 3-gap-champ [1]Southern fell right away to [8]@Prairie View A&M (46-@64), so [2a]@Texas Southern stepped in to take the SWAC crown (@78-@73) past [8]@Prairie View.

The Bubble teams didn't exactly fight their way into the tournament. Yes, [E10]St. Joseph's and [E11]Providence took the decision out of the NCAA Seeding Committee's hands by claiming Party-Crashing tournament crowns; but [M6]Massachusetts, [W10]BYU, [S11]Dayton (despite losing to St. Joseph's), [W11]Nebraska, [M11a]Tennessee and [M12a]Xavier all made it in without any bonus wins in their conference tournaments -- only [M12b]N.C. State was able to sneak in thanks to its upset of Syracuse in the ACC tourney.

    
Utah (routed by Arizona), SMU (edged by Houston) and California (edged by Colorado) turned out not to be locks after all. Illinois' win over Indiana in the BIG 10 tourney wasn't enough to get in.

Here's the list of Tito champions vs. the bid-stealing spoilers and Jack Dawsons who are attending The Dance under false pretenses:

TiTo Spoiler Jack Dawson

AMER: [1b]+3 Louisville

ACC: [1]+2 Virginia

SEC: [1]u+6 Florida

MVC: [1]u+6 Wichita State

WCC: [1]+2 Gonzaga

MAC: [1a/W1a] Western Michigan

SUMMIT: [1]+2 North Dakota State

C-USA: [1d] Tulsa

COLON: [1] Delaware

SLAND: [1]u+4 Stephen F. Austin

SKY: [1]+2 Weber State

A-SUN: [1b]+3 Mercer

MEAC: [1]+2 North Carolina Central


BIG E: [3b] Providence

A-10: [3b] St. Joseph's


PAT: "[1]+2 Boston University" (2-[2]American)

HORIZ: "[1]+2 Green Bay" (2-[5a]Milwaukee)

BIG W: "[1]UC-Irvine" ([6b]Cal Poly-SLO)

SUN B: "[1]+5 Georgia State" ([3]Louisiana)

OVC: "[1] Belmont" (2-[3]Eastern Kentucky)

AMER E: "[1]+2 Vermont" ([4]Albany)

NEC: "[1]+2 Robert Morris" ([4a]Mount St. Mary's)

MAAC: "[1]+2 Iona" (2-[2]Manhattan)

SOCON: "[1]+3 Davidson" ([3a]Wofford)

SWAC: "[1]+3 Southern" (3-[2]Texas Southern)

That's 13 thoroughbreds against 12(10) impostors -- much weaker than last year (15 up, 7(6) down). N.C. State's bid is questionable, but at least it's based on a big win; don't get inviting Xavier over Utah; maybe would have taken SMU or Arkansas rather than Nebraska or BYU. Minnesota, Clemson, Florida State, LSU, Missouri and St. John's were all just below the cutoff for me as well. San Diego State's #4-seed earned B-Major status for the MOUNTAIN WEST, but (despite 6 bids), the ATLANTIC 10 is just a giant Mid-Major. Some dominant TiTo 1BCs (North Dakota State/SUMMIT, Stephen F. Austin/SOUTHLAND, Weber State/BIG SKY, Mercer/ATLANTIC SUN, North Carolina Central/MEAC) might be strong enough to pull off an upset, but some Jack Dawsons especially robbed the field of potential breakthroughs (Green Bay/HORIZON, Georgia State/SUN BELT, Vermont/AMERICA EAST).

Arizona had already done enough that the squeak loss in the PAC-12 final didn't warrant losing its #1-seed; no real issue with TiTo Virginia getting the fourth #1 spot. TiTo Louisville deserved no worse than a #2-seed, though. Michigan State's form is #1-calibre, but you can't give it on potential with so many losses when they weren't at full strength.

    
Worst overseeding decisions: [M6]Massachusetts, [E6]North Carolina, [M9]Kansas State, [M10]Arizona State, [W11]Nebraska, [E11]Providence, [M12a]Xavier, [M12b]N.C. State; worst underseeding decisions: [M4]Louisville, [M8]Kentucky, [E12]Harvard, [S12]Stephen F. Austin, [E14]North Carolina Central.

    
Not too many cushy preferential Pods -- [S1]Florida(Orlando), [W2]Wisconsin(Milwaukee), [S3]Syracuse(Buffalo), [M3]Duke(Raleigh), [S4]UCLA(San Diego), [W6]Baylor(San Antonio) were the worst of it. [E1]Virginia knocked [E6]North Carolina out of Raleigh, for once. [M5]St. Louis(St. Louis), [W8]Gonzaga(Spokane) weren't eligible for their own home floors.

Toughest first games: [E5]Cincinnati/[E12]Harvard, [W8]Gonzaga/[W9]Oklahoma State, [S5]VCU/[S12]Stephen F. Austin, [S8]Colorado/[S9]Pittsburgh. Best chances for 1BC upsets ([E12]Harvard, [S12]Stephen F. Austin, [W12]North Dakota State over [W5]Oklahoma).

    
I like Louisiana Tech, Utah over Southern Mississippi, SMU over Arkansas and Green Bay emerging as the NIT Final Four. The weak CBI field should get Penn State, Oregon State, Texas A&M and UTEP for its semifinalists. Missouri State, San Diego, Ohio University/Eastern Michigan and Yale/Brown are the most decent teams in CIT who start out at home.

Can an undefeated Mid-Major really go all the way or will a TiTo B-Major do the trick? I lean towards the latter, but wouldn't be shocked this year by the former.

-- Ron

P.S. If you're interested,
the 31st Annual Hoops Contest is now open for entry
(through 6:30PMet TUESDAY, 18 MARCH).

Key games this week:

NCAA

Tuesday:
    1stRd/128s FIRST FOUR @DaytonOH
  • [M12a]Xavier v [M12b]NC State
  • [S17a]Mt St Mary's v [S17b]Albany

Wednesday:
    1stRd/128s FIRST FOUR @DaytonOH
  • [M11a]Tennessee v [M11b]Iowa
  • [M17a]Cal Poly-SLO v [M17b]Texas So

Thursday, Saturday:
    2ndRd/64s POD @OrlandoFL
  • [S1]@Florida v {[S17a]MtStMarys/[S17b]Albany}
  • [S8]Colorado v [S9]Pittsburgh

  • [M4]Louisville v [M13]Manhattan
  • [M5]St Louis v {[M12a]Xavier/[M12b]NCState}

    2ndRd/64s POD @MilwaukeeWI
  • [W2]@Wisconsin v [W15]American
  • [W7]Oregon v [W10]BYU

  • [M2]Michigan v [M15]Wofford
  • [M7]Texas v [M10]Arizona St

    2ndRd/64s POD @BuffaloNY
  • [E2]Villanova v [S15]Milwaukee
  • [E7]Connecticut v [E10]St Joseph's

  • [S3]@Syracuse v [S14]We Michigan
  • [S6]Ohio St v [S11]Dayton (OH)

    2ndRd/64s POD @SpokaneWA
  • [E4]Michigan St v [E13]Delaware
  • [E5]Cincinnati v [E12]Harvard

  • [W4]San Diego St v [W13]New Mexico St
  • [W5]Oklahoma v [W12]ND State

Friday, Sunday:
    2ndRd/64s POD @SanDiegoCA
  • [W1]Arizona v [W16]Weber St
  • [W8]Gonzaga v [W9]Oklahoma St

  • [S4]@UCLA v [S13]Tulsa
  • [S5]VCU v [S12]Stephen F Austin

    2ndRd/64s POD @StLouisMO
  • [M1]Wichita St v {[M17a]CalPolySLO/[M17b]TexasSo}
  • [M8]Kentucky v [M9]Kansas St

  • [S2]Kansas v [S15]Ea Kentucky
  • [S7]New Mexico v [S10]Stanford

    2ndRd/64s POD @RaleighNC
  • [E1]Virginia v [E16]Co Carolina
  • [E8]Memphis v [E9]Geo Washington

  • [M3]@Duke v [M14]Mercer
  • [M6]Massachusetts v {[M11a]Iowa/[M11b]Tennessee}

    2ndRd/64s POD @SanAntonioTX
  • [E3]Iowa St v [E14]NC Central
  • [E6]N Carolina v [E11]Providence

  • [W3]Creighton v [W14]Louisiana
  • [W6]@Baylor v [W11]Nebraska

NIT

Tuesday:
    1stRd/32s on-campus
  • @ [m1]Minnesota v [m8]High Pt
  • @ [s1]Florida St v [s8]FL Gulf Coast (FL)
  • @ [e1]St John's v [w8]Robert Morris
  • @ [m2]Missouri v [m7]Davidson
  • @ [w3]Arkansas v [w6]Indiana St
  • @ [e3]Clemson v [e6]Georgia St
  • @ [m4]St Mary's v [m5]Utah
  • @ [s4]Georgetown v [s5]W Virginia
  • @ [e4]Green Bay v [e5]Belmont
Wednesday:
    1stRd/32s on-campus
  • @ [w1]SMU v [w8]UC-Irvine
  • @ [w2]California v [w7]UT-Valley
  • @ [s2]Georgia v [s7]Vermont
  • @ [e2]Illinois v [e7]Boston U
  • @ [s3]Louisiana Tech v [s6]Iona
  • @ [m3]So Mississippi v [m6]Toledo
  • @ [w4]San Francisco v [w5]LSU
Thursday-Monday week:
    16s on-campus
  • @{[w1]SMU/[w8]UCIrvine} v {[w4]SanFrancisco/[w5]LSU}
  • @{[w2]California/[w7]UTValley} v {[w3]Arkansas/[w6]IndianaSt}

  • @{[m1]Minnesota/[m8]HighPt} v {[m4]StMarys/[m5]Utah}
  • @{[m2]Missouri/[m7]Davidson} v {[m3]SoMississippi/[m6]Toledo}

  • @{[e1]StJohns/[w8]RobertMorris} v {[e4]GreenBay/[e5]Belmont}
  • @{[e2]Illinois/[e7]BostonU} v {{[e3]Clemson/[e6]GeorgiaSt}

  • @{[s1]FloridaSt/[s8]FLGulfCoast} v {[s4]Georgetown/[s5]WVirginia}
  • @{[s2]Georgia/[s7]Vermont} v {[s3]LouisianaTech/[s6]Iona}
Tuesday week-Wednesday week:
    Qtrs on-campus
Tue 1 Apr, Thu 3 Apr
    Semis,Final @ New York NY /MSG/
  • {w/SMU} v {e/StJohns}
  • {m/Minnesota} v {s/FloridaSt}

CBI

Tuesday:
    1stRd/16s on-campus
  • (eB): @ Siena v Stony Brook (NY)
Wednesday:
    1stRd/16s on-campus
  • (eA): @ Penn St v Hampton
  • (wA): @ Oregon St v Radford
  • (wB): @ Old Dominion v SD State
  • (mA): @ Texas A&M v Wyoming
  • (mB): @ Illinois St v Morehead St
  • (sA): @ UTEP v Fresno St
  • (sB): @ Tulane v Princeton
Monday week:
    Qtrs on-campus (by region)
  • (e): {PennSt/Hampton} v {Siena/StonyBrook}
  • (w): {OregonSt/Radford} v {OldDominion/SDState}
  • (m): {TexasA&M/Wyoming} v {IllinoisSt/MoreheadSt}
  • (s): {UTEP/FresnoSt} v {Tulane/Princeton}
Wednesday week:
    Semis on-campus (re-seeded)
Mon 31 Mar, Wed 2 Apr, (if necessary: Fri 4 Apr):
    Finals on-campus (Best of 3)

CIT

Monday:
    1stRd/32s on-campus
  • @ Brown v Holy Cross
Tuesday:
    1stRd/32s on-campus
  • @ San Diego v Portland St
  • @ Ea Michigan v Norfolk St
  • @ Valparaiso v Columbia
  • @ E Carolina v Wright St
  • @ Sam Houston St v Alabama St
  • @ Canisius v VMI
  • @ E Tennessee St v Chattanooga (TN)
Wednesday:
    1stRd/32s on-campus
  • @ Missouri St v Murray St
  • @ {Grand Canyon} v Pacific
  • @ IPFW v Akron (BG)
  • @ Ohio U v Cleveland St (OH)
  • @ Yale v Quinnipiac (CT) (CT 6)
  • @ {Omaha} v N Dakota
  • @ SC Upstate v Towson
  • @ No Colorado v Texas A&M-CC
Friday-Saturday:
    2ndRd/16s on-campus
Tuesday-Thursday week:
    Qtrs on-campus [re-seeded]
Tue 1 Apr:
    Semis on-campus [re-seeded]
Thu 3 Apr
    Final on-campus

FINAL TOP 25 - 14 Mar17: PRECONTEST - ] Column

  1. Florida (32-2) SECu+6 [@SECt] [rr4vGS-A.CH] (vBIG.12) (JIMMY.V)
  2. Wichita State (33-0) MVCu+6 [MVCt] [2v2:CBE]
  3. Arizona (30-4) PAC.12+3 [2v2:NIT.T-O]
  4. Virginia (28-6) ACC+2 [@ACCt] [2v2:CORPUS.X]
  5. Louisville (29-5) coAMER+3 [AMERt]
  6. Iowa State (26-7) [BIG.12t] [3:DIAMOND] (vSEC)
  7. Michigan State (26-8) [BIG.10t] [2v2:CVC] (@@CHAMPS)
  8. Wisconsin (26-7) [2v2:CANCUN] (@ACC)
  9. Kansas (24-9) BIG.12+2 (@@CHAMPS)
  10. Michigan (24-8) BIG.10+3
  11. UCLA (26-8) [PAC.12t] [.5vv2:LVI-T]
  12. New Mexico (26-6) [MWCt]
  13. Connecticut (26-8) [2v2:2KS]
  14. Duke (26-8) (vBIG.10) (vCQAP)
  15. San Diego State (27-4) MWC [3:WL/ANAHEIM]
  16. Cincinnati (26-6) coAMER+3 [rr4vGS-E.SH] (JIMMY.V)
  17. Syracuse (27-5) [3:MAUI] (vBIG.10)
  18. Villanova (28-4) BIG.E+2 BIG.5u [3:ATLANTIS]
  19. Oregon (23-9) [rr3vGS-C.H]
  20. St. Louis (25-6) A-10
  21. Baylor (23-11) (@@SEC)
  22. Gonzaga (27-6) WCC+2 [WCCt]
  23. Pittsburgh (25-9) [2v2:LEGENDS] (vBIG.10)
  24. Kentucky (23-10) [rr4vKEIGHTLY]
  25. Creighton (26-7)

Honorable Mention:

Oklahoma State (21-12) (vSEC) (LV-SH) ,

Ohio State (25-9) [3v:GOTHAM] (vACC) ,

VCU (26-8),

Harvard (25-4) [3:GREAT.AK] ,

Oklahoma (23-9) (@SEC) ,

Iowa (18-12) (vACC) (@@BIG.4) ,

Colorado (23-11) [rr4vGS-B.ME] ,

Texas (23-10) (vSEC) .

posted by Ron @ Monday, March 24, 2014